426 replies to this topic

[dTraderB]

ES 3820 has been strong resistance 

 

Not moving beyond 38.2% retracement.

[dTraderB]

WALL STREET is about to launch a BLITZ against the BEARS ... they want the markets up, 

they want even a hint of dovishness from the FED to justify it

and they will get it, maybe as soon as tomorrow - NFP report

 

Looks like pivot on Dow set right at 30K...

 

Until bears take that pivot back, they in danger of swing term fumble now...

[dTraderB]

Waiting on above 3800 

 

ps3780 getting tempting to short again lol!! 

[dTraderB]

From SENTIMENT TRADER mail:

 

Investors just can't get enough risk Continuing the frenetic market that is 2022, buyers once again couldn't get enough risk assets to start this week.

Very similar to the action in March 2020, Monday and Tuesday witnessed overwhelming buying interest. On the NYSE, five times more securities advanced than declined, and ten times more volume flowed into advancing than declining securities.

It's rare to see so many stocks, preferred securities, and fixed income rising at the same time. Even going back to 1928, this hasn't happened too many times. We have less confidence in breadth metrics before 1950, so we'll limit the lookback to then.

When five times as many securities rose as declined on consecutive sessions, the S&P 500 never suffered a negative one-year return. Even over the next six months, there was only a single small loss.

The maximum decline even up to a year later was minuscule on average, though five of them suffered drawdowns larger than -5%. Every signal saw a maximum gain of more than +15% within the following year.

And when more than ten times as much volume flowed into advancing versus declining securities, returns were even more consistently positive. The sample size was smaller, but the results were more consistent.

Breadth thrusts have failed this year, depending on how they're defined, and what time frame we use. But before this week, we hadn't seen a thrust as powerful, as widespread, or coming from such low levels.   What the research tells us

• On consecutive sessions, more than 5 times as many securities on the NYSE advanced as declined.
• Even more notably, more than 10 times as much volume flowed into advancing than declining securities.

• Both types of thrusts have always preceded a positive one-year return in the S&P 500.
• Short-term returns tended to be weak as buyers took a temporary breath.

[dTraderB]

Look for more of this hint of dovishness, slight tilt, drop a few phrases .... WALL ST is pressuring the FED, and also the WHITE HOUSE 

for even a hint of FED change in policy, just a hint.... FED is trying to maintain a hawkish posture until there is  reasonable confidence INFLATION is heading down at a faster rate. 

 

This comment could be worth about 50 to 100 ES points; add another by another FED member and soon you have another RALLY to ES 4200 minimum 

 

FED'S COOK: I AM WILLING TO ALTER THE COURSE AS THE DATA CHANGES.

[dTraderB]

It's coming..... huge rally coming....

 

FED'S EVANS: THE FED'S NEXT MEETING WILL DECIDE WHETHER TO USE 50 OR 75 BASIS POINTS.

 

 

Look for more of this hint of dovishness, slight tilt, drop a few phrases .... WALL ST is pressuring the FED, and also the WHITE HOUSE 

for even a hint of FED change in policy, just a hint.... FED is trying to maintain a hawkish posture until there is  reasonable confidence INFLATION is heading down at a faster rate. 

 

This comment could be worth about 50 to 100 ES points; add another by another FED member and soon you have another RALLY to ES 4200 minimum 

 

FED'S COOK: I AM WILLING TO ALTER THE COURSE AS THE DATA CHANGES.

[beta]

We're in the middle of a 10-12% trading range.  Here's why I think we're putting in a s/t top:

• USO is peaking out after a 15% straight up run to the declining daily T/L (carried SPX)
• AAPL has peaked following yesterday's secondary top
• TSLA's breakout on 15-min chart appears to be a dud so far.
• TLT looks to be turning down and may test 100 level before it runs again to 104-107
• This entire sequence starting Monday has been choppy (corrective wave)
• VIX appears to have bottomed

I believe we'll see a secondary test of the Q 268 low.  Could be a higher or lower low.   

 

IF this is the local "5 of 3" wave, it will move quickly and reverse around the secondary low.   Next level "4" wave will take the markets about 5% higher than current levels.   All IMHO.

Edited by beta, 06 October 2022 - 01:36 PM.

[K Wave]

See if bears can get Dow under 30K to stick....

[K Wave]

VIX HOD...maybe?

[K Wave]

We're in the middle of a 10-12% trading range.  Here's why I think we're putting in a s/t top:

• USO is peaking out after a 15% straight up run to the declining daily T/L (carried SPX)
• AAPL has peaked following yesterday's secondary top
• TSLA's breakout on 15-min chart appears to be a dud so far.
• TLT looks to be turning down and may test 100 level before it runs again to 104-107
• This entire sequence starting Monday has been choppy (corrective wave)
• VIX appears to have bottomed

I believe we'll see a secondary test of the Q 268 low.  Could be a higher or lower low.   

 

IF this is the local "5 of 3" wave, it will move quickly and reverse around the secondary low.   Next level "4" wave will take the markets about 5% higher than current levels.   All IMHO.

I would add with a caveat that IF Rusty takes out the low...bye bye bulls..that is an absolutely huge pivot down there...if it gets taken out, it aint coming back...

 

But have to get it under 1740 and make it stick first..