492 replies to this topic

[slupert]

Difference between now and June is that the utilities are leading. So when this reverese you will see a sharper bounce and one frought with volatilty. I think the best we could hope for ST is too hammer out a solid bottom, minimum of 1 more back test. Earnings season holds the hardest comps, with probabl minimal guidance. Hammer out that bottom now, then after the election go. I believe that the most likrly scenario, I posted the chart of previous mid term years. (JMHO)

[slupert]

Difference between now and June is that the utilities are leading. So when this reverese you will see a sharper bounce and one frought with volatilty. I think the best we could hope for ST is too hammer out a solid bottom, minimum of 1 more back test. Earnings season holds the hardest comps, with probabl minimal guidance. Hammer out that bottom now, then after the election go. I believe that the most likrly scenario, I posted the chart of previous mid term years. (JMHO)

Actually, let me go a little further with that If you don't see them kitchen sinking it this earnings season, next earnings season will be the one. (JMHO)

[slupert]

There are positive divergences forming on the weekly, will it hold the test of the 200??  https://schrts.co/eCnZuAiJ

[beta]

Thanks for holding down the fort, everyone.

 

Key to this week's trading will be sector rotation.  I believe we're going to see rotation out of energy (up 16-20% last week) into a tech bounce.  Sold my TSLA puts and kept all other shorts.  Added SCO, DUG.  Will be looking for new entries on the short side, as there's further downside to go.

 

There was a panel at ChartCon discussing analogies between trading and flying.  (Apparently, many traders are hobby pilots).  Suffice it to say that if you're not using TA tools, you are at a huge disadvantage in these dangerous markets.  No different than flying blind. 

Edited by beta, 09 October 2022 - 06:21 PM.

[K Wave]

There are positive divergences forming on the weekly, will it hold the test of the 200??  https://schrts.co/eCnZuAiJ

Compare the NDX weekly with 1929 daily...

 

I just posted it on the Gold board as the 87 / 29 analog topic came up...there are a few posts on the subject.

 

https://www.traders-...erous/?p=877005

 

Literally 1 false step here leads to likely disaster.

 

Now we see if bears can actually push it over the edge next few weeks.

 

In my mind, all about seeing what VIX does here dead ahead.

[K Wave]

BTC hourly....sitting right on the big 19400 level...

 

This thing is also 1 false step away from total calamity....

 

Bulls not safe AT ALL unless 20 K reclaimed.

 

[K Wave]

Dow 2 hour continuous look...

 

All I see so far is wickedly bearish action sticks

 

30K is what bulls need to reclaim to have any chance of preventing this thing from going over the edge in a non-linear break...

 

Certainly not impossible. but at very high risk until that actually happens.

 

[K Wave]

NDX much closer to the break point..

 

And FWIW, NYFANG Big 10 index already took out the swing lows on Friday....

 

 

[K Wave]

Crude....see if we get the confirmation breach like we saw on UNH and TSLA

 

Much shorter time frame here, but always have to be alert when these guys show up after a big ramp job...

 

[K Wave]

Yen approaching the swing lows again...

 

See if BOJ tries to give it another go at intervention that will fail at the end of the day....

 

BOJ not in enviable position right now dealing with a collapsing currency while traders relentlessly bang away on the 10 year cap...

 

Just a matter of time......