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Complex Bottoming, Part 3: RALLY

Started by dTraderB , Oct 16 2022 04:45 PM

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370 replies to this topic

#1 dTraderB

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Posted 16 October 2022 - 04:45 PM

The ONLY event to stop a RALLY now is a GEOPOLITICAL event e.g. related to the RUSSIAN INVASION of UKRAINE, or CHINA/TAIWAN situation worsens. 

 

Choppy, wild swings and insane volatility continue but the NET effect should be a RALLY to at least ES 3800. 

 

Failure to hold ES 3500 on a daily basis will lead to ES trading below 3300. I do not expect this in 2022 but highly probable in Q1 2023. 

 

Finished the week with a loss of 0.94%, much worse than it looked earlier in the week but disappointing AFTER  being up on the week at the end of that GREAT HISTORICAL REVERSAL ON THURSDAY.

 

Still puzzled by that big drop on FRIDAY....  

 

My FF is the FED will talk HAWKISHLY but act DOVISHLY during the next 2 to 3 months. Not a V-turn but maybe TWO 50bps rate hikes instead any 75... 

 

 


#2 dTraderB

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Posted 16 October 2022 - 04:47 PM

Bearish POLL but by a smaller margin; quite frankly, the vast majority of retail traders are dizzy with the volatility and unsure of how it goes from here on...

 

 
Saturday Poll The next 100 points for the S&P?
  •  
    UP
    46.1%
  •  
    DOWN
    53.9%
3,981 votes·Final results
 

#3 dTraderB

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Posted 16 October 2022 - 04:49 PM

CHINA desperate to get out of this funk, expect stimulus ... tons of it 

 

 

On the radar -China data + PBOC rate decision -ZEW, NAHB, Philly Fed Markets: US 10yr yield breaking above 4%, DXY brushing up against resistance, WTI crude back down to support, gold back below support, stocks probing support...

 

Bearish POLL but by a smaller margin; quite frankly, the vast majority of retail traders are dizzy with the volatility and unsure of how it goes from here on...

 

 
Saturday Poll The next 100 points for the S&P?
  •  
    UP
    46.1%
  •  
    DOWN
    53.9%
3,981 votes·Final results
 

 

 

On the radar -China data + PBOC rate decision -ZEW, NAHB, Philly Fed Markets: US 10yr yield breaking above 4%, DXY brushing up against resistance, WTI crude back down to support, gold back below support, stocks probing support...

#4 dTraderB

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Posted 16 October 2022 - 04:50 PM

Almost 2 to 1 BEARS

 

Your equities view/positioning is (primary reason in brackets):
  •  
    Bullish (Fundamentals)
    14.6%
  •  
    Bullish (Technicals)
     
    17.8%
  •  
    Bearish (Fundamentals)
    53.7%
  •  
    Bearish (Technicals)
    13.9%
999 votes·Final results

 

CHINA desperate to get out of this funk, expect stimulus ... tons of it 

 

 

On the radar -China data + PBOC rate decision -ZEW, NAHB, Philly Fed Markets: US 10yr yield breaking above 4%, DXY brushing up against resistance, WTI crude back down to support, gold back below support, stocks probing support...

 

Bearish POLL but by a smaller margin; quite frankly, the vast majority of retail traders are dizzy with the volatility and unsure of how it goes from here on...

 

 
Saturday Poll The next 100 points for the S&P?
  •  
    UP
    46.1%
  •  
    DOWN
    53.9%
3,981 votes·Final results
 

 

 

On the radar -China data + PBOC rate decision -ZEW, NAHB, Philly Fed Markets: US 10yr yield breaking above 4%, DXY brushing up against resistance, WTI crude back down to support, gold back below support, stocks probing support...

 


#5 dTraderB

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Posted 16 October 2022 - 04:52 PM

62-38 BEARS. Had a BIG LOSING week in TLT CALLS, rolled some before the big drop but still lost almost 9% on this position.

Not unexpected and I intend to add more on any drop below last week's low

 

Your *bonds* view/positioning is (primary reason in brackets): [Bearish = rising yields] [Bullish = falling yields]
  •  
    Bullish (Fundamentals)
    24.6%
  •  
    Bullish (Technicals)
    13.5%
  •  
    Bearish (Fundamentals)
    51.4%
  •  
    Bearish (Technicals)
    10.5%
764 votes·Final results
 

 

Almost 2 to 1 BEARS

 

Your equities view/positioning is (primary reason in brackets):
  •  
    Bullish (Fundamentals)
    14.6%
  •  
    Bullish (Technicals)
     
    17.8%
  •  
    Bearish (Fundamentals)
    53.7%
  •  
    Bearish (Technicals)
    13.9%
999 votes·Final results

 

CHINA desperate to get out of this funk, expect stimulus ... tons of it 

 

 

On the radar -China data + PBOC rate decision -ZEW, NAHB, Philly Fed Markets: US 10yr yield breaking above 4%, DXY brushing up against resistance, WTI crude back down to support, gold back below support, stocks probing support...

 

Bearish POLL but by a smaller margin; quite frankly, the vast majority of retail traders are dizzy with the volatility and unsure of how it goes from here on...

 

 
Saturday Poll The next 100 points for the S&P?
  •  
    UP
    46.1%
  •  
    DOWN
    53.9%
3,981 votes·Final results
 

 

 

On the radar -China data + PBOC rate decision -ZEW, NAHB, Philly Fed Markets: US 10yr yield breaking above 4%, DXY brushing up against resistance, WTI crude back down to support, gold back below support, stocks probing support...

 

 


#6 MDurkin

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Posted 16 October 2022 - 04:52 PM

https://www.investin...ed-rate-monitor

 

 

97 percent chance of .75. Nov

 

70 percent chance of .75 Dec


#7 dTraderB

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Posted 16 October 2022 - 04:53 PM

Look at this - falling off the cliff!

 

https://twitter.com/...758094258102273

 

 

62-38 BEARS. Had a BIG LOSING week in TLT CALLS, rolled some before the big drop but still lost almost 9% on this position.

Not unexpected and I intend to add more on any drop below last week's low

 

Your *bonds* view/positioning is (primary reason in brackets): [Bearish = rising yields] [Bullish = falling yields]
  •  
    Bullish (Fundamentals)
    24.6%
  •  
    Bullish (Technicals)
    13.5%
  •  
    Bearish (Fundamentals)
    51.4%
  •  
    Bearish (Technicals)
    10.5%
764 votes·Final results
 

 

Almost 2 to 1 BEARS

 

Your equities view/positioning is (primary reason in brackets):
  •  
    Bullish (Fundamentals)
    14.6%
  •  
    Bullish (Technicals)
     
    17.8%
  •  
    Bearish (Fundamentals)
    53.7%
  •  
    Bearish (Technicals)
    13.9%
999 votes·Final results

 

CHINA desperate to get out of this funk, expect stimulus ... tons of it 

 

 

On the radar -China data + PBOC rate decision -ZEW, NAHB, Philly Fed Markets: US 10yr yield breaking above 4%, DXY brushing up against resistance, WTI crude back down to support, gold back below support, stocks probing support...

 

Bearish POLL but by a smaller margin; quite frankly, the vast majority of retail traders are dizzy with the volatility and unsure of how it goes from here on...

 

 
Saturday Poll The next 100 points for the S&P?
  •  
    UP
    46.1%
  •  
    DOWN
    53.9%
3,981 votes·Final results
 

 

 

On the radar -China data + PBOC rate decision -ZEW, NAHB, Philly Fed Markets: US 10yr yield breaking above 4%, DXY brushing up against resistance, WTI crude back down to support, gold back below support, stocks probing support...

 

 

 


#8 dTraderB

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Posted 16 October 2022 - 04:54 PM

Yeah, the consensus is 75bps in November, even some demanding 100bps 

BUT remember NOVEMBER rate cut is weeks away....  many more economic reports from now until then

 

https://www.investin...ed-rate-monitor

 

 

97 percent chance of .75. Nov

 

70 percent chance of .75 Dec


#9 dTraderB

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Posted 16 October 2022 - 04:58 PM

BIG SHORT USD/YEN position, stopped out of 3, added 5 more 

 

I like this trade, I also think the BOJ will wait until the spike up loses steam before intervening 

 

This has been quite resilient, still below zero, bullish case demands a rapid drop to below -200 and then reverse

 

McClellanOsc_1406.gif


#10 dTraderB

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Posted 16 October 2022 - 05:00 PM

Link here 

https://www.mcoscill...t_breadth_data/

 

and WATCH THIS! 

https://www.marketin...-highs-new-lows

and this:

https://www.marketin...ce-decline-line

 

BIG SHORT USD/YEN position, stopped out of 3, added 5 more 

 

I like this trade, I also think the BOJ will wait until the spike up loses steam before intervening 

 

This has been quite resilient, still below zero, bullish case demands a rapid drop to below -200 and then reverse

 

McClellanOsc_1406.gif


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