31 replies to this topic

[K Wave]

 

 

I also show VIX momo turning positive ( or I guess negative :-) ) ..here' simple signal I use part of my Volatility model .

Overall model shows we are 'trying' to make an IT low ..but the setup is not good and I expect a failed attempt over this and next week though

i'd like to be wrong and we get a big bounce.

 

Can't seem to get this image to show ....but here is link.

https://mark_davidson1-yahoo.tinytake.com/msc/NzQ3MjI2M18yMDM4NzkzNg

IF that turn back up does not mainfest...crashes happen on violation of support that no one thinks can be Broken...AKA last Thursday low.

If we are below that low from here forward going into the weekend....sure would line up with the Dark Days....woo woo

 

Anyway, if this overnight action on TSLA sticks, and breaks below the lows tomorrow..be very careful going into the weekend.

 

 

Yes Kwave - a failure of  the current low  on  historical backtest of my model, would give a pattern setup only seen approximately 4 times in 100 years, and was extremely bearish longer term in those cases.

A failure would likely not be immediate though, and take a few weeks with multiple attempts to hold this Key 3400-3500 pivot. Essentially that setup without going into all the conditions is a 'failure to make an

IT low' at this point in a bear market. My model is giving very high odds that will be the case here as said over next week or so but i'd expect more attempts to hold that pivot if/when we retest it that is

part of the pattern setup.

 

The main reason that I think it could possibly come faster, as perhaps a multi-week, "crash" is RUT.

 

That one has already done a lot of work under the 200 week, with that huge air gap underneath in the weekly chart.

As you say, very rare setup, but IF a "crash" on the weekly charts is a comin', this is exactly the type of place it would occur.

 

Am not ruling out something along these lines if Thursday low is busted.  Extreme, but certainly not impossible as the biggest funny money bubble in the history of the world implodes.

 

Edited by K Wave, 19 October 2022 - 10:41 PM.

[K Wave]

Although certainly possible it could manifest more like TLT after the 200 week breach.

 

Which took only a few weeks more to complete the trip through the weekly "crash window", and then Kept on Truckin'.

 

In any event, IF last Thursday low gets taken out...EXTREME caution is warranted.

 

Edited by K Wave, 19 October 2022 - 10:49 PM.

[K Wave]

THAT there could be THE pivot for Rusty going forward.

 

As long as bulls hold this overnight turn attempt, they can avoid disaster.

 

But if that pivot does not hold...could be a very different story.

 

[K Wave]

Could it all come down to whether this is a Pop N Drop, or a Pop N Go on Rusty here?

 

[K Wave]

Looking like successful save so far....

 

1720 area on this chart likely very big now going forward.

 

Perhaps bulls do make it all the way to 1800, where they would face perhaps their toughest challenge

 

 

[K Wave]

Rut 2 hour...1720 breach, and likely down...

 

1800 breach, if it happened, could turn tide for bulls more intermediate term.

 

Hugely important zone here....

 

[K Wave]

Bulls attempt real close to flaming out....careful under the yellow line...

 

[EntropyModel]

Potential setup here - rising wedge .

 

https://mark_davidson1-yahoo.tinytake.com/msc/NzQ4MTUwOF8yMDQwMTA2Ng

 

From intraday comments

[gm_general]

If 7 out of 9 previous cases I passed a street corner I was beaten up I would be apprehensive the next time. So goes Friday.

[K Wave]

Here's an update to that 2 hour chart after the breach...Do Ya Feel Lucky?

 

Edited by K Wave, 20 October 2022 - 05:11 PM.