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Current outlook FWIW


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#11 EntropyModel

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Posted 24 October 2022 - 06:13 PM

 

Psy Ops from FED with election in 2 weeks

 

Huge numbers of mail-in voting already, just after the DJ30 got goosed by "unknown" goosers.

 

 

Published Oct. 21st 2022:

 

 

I honestly pay no attention to politics but yeah, we're in 'let them eat fake cake' season ...oil market has been obviously politicized last few months ...I would not be surprised, well I predict, 

once the 'election' ( or whatever it really is i'll say no more on that tongue.png   )  is out the way I predict that a whole bunch of  crises appear almost immediately that have been conveniently held off until then, for example,

a massive recession for one, a return of the 'pandemic' that isn't, a ramping up of 'war' and 'threat of war' for two and three, a bunch more supply issues and i'm sure the creative department of

the PTB can come up with more fear mongering for mass control  by end of Nov.

 

It doesn't matter, fake reality is ending in 2023, and it won't matter what the 'celebrity vested interest sock puppets' called politicians pretending to be 'in power'  pretend they will will do, as they won't be able to anything about it.  


Edited by EntropyModel, 24 October 2022 - 06:15 PM.

Question everything, especially what you believe you know. The foundation of science is questioning the data, not trusting the data. I only trust fully falsified, non vested interest 'data', which is extremely rare in our world of paid framing narratives 'psy ops'. Market Comments https://markdavidson.substack.com/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email

#12 Rogerdodger

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Posted 24 October 2022 - 07:20 PM

I hear you.

To me, watching the political show is like going to a Harlem Globetrotters vs Washington Generals  "game".

When the game ends, both teams get on the same bus and are all paid by the same owners.

 

It is what it is.



#13 EntropyModel

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Posted 25 October 2022 - 12:08 AM

I hear you.

To me, watching the political show is like going to a Harlem Globetrotters vs Washington Generals  "game".

When the game ends, both teams get on the same bus and are all paid by the same owners.

 

It is what it is.

 

Yes but alot less entertaining rolleyes.gif , more like a really badly scripted 'reality' show - 'celebrity politician' featuring narcissistic sociopath's -  but yeah they laugh at the masses believing its real at the post game bus,  paid handsomely by the 'owners' to distract, divide, and make sure absolutely nothing gets done or changes i.e maintain the  idiocracy  to keep both sides 'angry' at each other (SunTzu style).. all to allow the men behind the curtain continue to run this world out of sight of 99% perception filter,  the military-industrial-techno-media 'matrix' has some good new scripts coming up for the show in 2023 :-) 


Edited by EntropyModel, 25 October 2022 - 12:19 AM.

Question everything, especially what you believe you know. The foundation of science is questioning the data, not trusting the data. I only trust fully falsified, non vested interest 'data', which is extremely rare in our world of paid framing narratives 'psy ops'. Market Comments https://markdavidson.substack.com/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email

#14 EntropyModel

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Posted 25 October 2022 - 01:14 AM

Evening comments


Question everything, especially what you believe you know. The foundation of science is questioning the data, not trusting the data. I only trust fully falsified, non vested interest 'data', which is extremely rare in our world of paid framing narratives 'psy ops'. Market Comments https://markdavidson.substack.com/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email

#15 EntropyModel

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Posted 25 October 2022 - 11:28 AM

Some STRONG dollar support today (see chart posted in above video on dollar current influence) ..held off any selling in this zone so far, but we are now entering

my target zones for this bounce ..  maybe with election it can push to the max (as has occurred on both up and down side in 2022 on nearly all moves) tbd

 

https://mark_davidson1-yahoo.tinytake.com/msc/NzQ5NDE4N18yMDQyMDk1Mw


Question everything, especially what you believe you know. The foundation of science is questioning the data, not trusting the data. I only trust fully falsified, non vested interest 'data', which is extremely rare in our world of paid framing narratives 'psy ops'. Market Comments https://markdavidson.substack.com/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email

#16 steadyquest

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Posted 25 October 2022 - 11:51 AM

If big tech beats - and they probobly will - this rally could have legs.  Material and shipping costs have fallen sharply, supportive of future bottom lines.  IWM up 3% today so far.  TLT up 2.55%.  My concerns are liquidity drying up, WW3 officially kicking off or taiwan (TSMC) being invaded 

P/E danced around the 2.33 level but may need to go back up and hit it

 

pe1.png

 

Or - it could be double bottom and done

 

pe2.png

 

A couple of possible counts for TLT.  Could be the bottom - at least for a while

 

TLT1.png

 

TLT2.png



#17 EntropyModel

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Posted 25 October 2022 - 12:33 PM

If big tech beats - and they probobly will - this rally could have legs.  Material and shipping costs have fallen sharply, supportive of future bottom lines.  IWM up 3% today so far.  TLT up 2.55%.  My concerns are liquidity drying up, WW3 officially kicking off or taiwan (TSMC) being invaded 

P/E danced around the 2.33 level but may need to go back up and hit it

 

Thx for the charts steadyquest, for me the Liquidity is the big problem - Central banks are draining mode ... I track this as key part of my model - they are holding off now for election, but after it I expect they will draining as all of 2022.

 

I use  a probability based model I created over last 23 years - the main factors it considers is Central Bank liquidity, systemic liquidity, price modelling, volatility, credit and few others based purely on backtested statistical

behavior.


Question everything, especially what you believe you know. The foundation of science is questioning the data, not trusting the data. I only trust fully falsified, non vested interest 'data', which is extremely rare in our world of paid framing narratives 'psy ops'. Market Comments https://markdavidson.substack.com/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email

#18 steadyquest

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Posted 25 October 2022 - 02:11 PM

Man - that sounds too much like work - might as well have a job.  My contention is that the market incorporates all available information into the price, i.e., it does all that hard work for us and prints the result on the tape in real time.  As I see it, the main problem is that the path taken from price A to price B is being strongly manipulated by criminal banksters and their insider wallstreet cohorts, giving them unfair advantage over everyone else.  I say end the fed (preferably with noose or guillotine).     



#19 EntropyModel

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Posted 25 October 2022 - 02:33 PM

Man - that sounds too much like work - might as well have a job.  My contention is that the market incorporates all available information into the price, i.e., it does all that hard work for us and prints the result on the tape in real time.  As I see it, the main problem is that the path taken from price A to price B is being strongly manipulated by criminal banksters and their insider wallstreet cohorts, giving them unfair advantage over everyone else.  I say end the fed (preferably with noose or guillotine).     

 

Yes it was alot of work but something I enjoy. Also I don't believe anything less works from 23 years of experience in trading seeing and trying literally everything, but that's a long discussion.

But yes the market is run by 'criminals' and the task is to figure out their MO, central banks use liquidity (pump or drain) , good luck getting rid of them :-)


Edited by EntropyModel, 25 October 2022 - 02:38 PM.

Question everything, especially what you believe you know. The foundation of science is questioning the data, not trusting the data. I only trust fully falsified, non vested interest 'data', which is extremely rare in our world of paid framing narratives 'psy ops'. Market Comments https://markdavidson.substack.com/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email

#20 EntropyModel

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Posted 25 October 2022 - 03:25 PM

IT up cycle as I said has alot of support this week ..and TIME wise has I expect few more weeks to run as sais, but I wd expect now to see some selling come in around these levels (as posted in my intraday on substack)

 

This signals and few other key model ones are still in IT up mode -

 

https://mark_davidson1-yahoo.tinytake.com/msc/NzQ5NDg0N18yMDQyMTk2Ng

 

I am still hoping we get bit more upside out of this ..as my wife decided near the recent lows to make me manage her 401K   ..probably alot of that going on recently 'no worried' until recent statements ...so

I will wait out the full cycle until i get an IT sell. 


Edited by EntropyModel, 25 October 2022 - 03:27 PM.

Question everything, especially what you believe you know. The foundation of science is questioning the data, not trusting the data. I only trust fully falsified, non vested interest 'data', which is extremely rare in our world of paid framing narratives 'psy ops'. Market Comments https://markdavidson.substack.com/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email