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MARTIN ZWEIG FED Indicator updated (or revised?)


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#1 Rogerdodger

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Posted 08 November 2022 - 06:15 PM

They just either updated or revised.

 

http://investstrat.c...dindicator.html

 

Fed-Funds.jpg



#2 Chilidawgz

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Posted 08 November 2022 - 07:46 PM

What's your take on Marty's old model Roger? I used to watch this site but they often were not in step with the price trend or were late when I used to check it.


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#3 Rogerdodger

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Posted 08 November 2022 - 10:44 PM

.I used to watch this site but they often were not in step with the price trend or were late when I used to check it.

2 Months ago there was nothing below -3

This week they changed several of the previous months to -4.

I'm (too lazy) to get deeply into it, as I question it's value other than telling the strength of prevailing "winds"...(hot air coming from Fed-speak).

Those are now headwinds, unwinding years of FED tailwinds.

Category Sustained Winds

1 74-95 mph 64-82 kt 119-153 km/h

2 96-110 mph 83-95 kt 154-177 km/h

3 (major) 111-129 mph 96-112 kt 178-208 km/h

4 (major) 130-156 mph 113-136 kt 209-251 km/h

 

I know the model discards older data's significance, as it "becomes stale".

 

An increase in the Discount Rate, Federal Funds Rate or Reserve Requirements is bearish.

Sell Signals

  1. A hike in either one receives minus one point for that component of the Fed Indicator. It would also wipe out any positive points that might have been there at the time. The negative point remains for six months after which it becomes ‘stale’ and is discarded.

 


Edited by Rogerdodger, 08 November 2022 - 10:45 PM.


#4 slupert

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Posted 09 November 2022 - 09:20 AM

6 months ago, who would have said, "I bet the FED raises rates 75 basis points the week before an election?' Jay ain't playin' !