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BULLs grinding up to 2023 Q1 top -- beware of GEOPOLITICAL events


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#11 dTraderB

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Posted 27 November 2022 - 07:37 PM

Better than I expected:

 

KEERAT (@VXO150) tweeted at 0:47 pm on Sun, Nov 27, 2022:
MASTERCARD: U.S. RETAIL SALES FRIDAY UP +12% YOY, EX-AUTO

*IN-STORE TRAFFIC BLACK FRIDAY UP BY 2.9% YOY: SENSORMATIC

*DATA SHOWS STRONG US BLACK FRIDAY TURNOUT: SENSORMATIC

Is this the Great Depression ?

I do not rely on these alleged extreme levels... this can change suddenly and also are many ST factors that are at play ... 

BUY many do trade on these types of situations:

 

 
Puts keep getting expensive
Betting on more downside just doesn't stop

https://twitter.com/...910186094292994



#12 dTraderB

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Posted 27 November 2022 - 07:39 PM

Totally agree!

Yardeni Research (@yardeni) tweeted at 0:02 pm on Sun, Nov 27, 2022:
Yield Curve Spread Signaling Rate Peak

Full story and charts here:

https://www.yardeniq...ling-rate-peak/



#13 dTraderB

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Posted 27 November 2022 - 07:43 PM

HA HA   

This is a bullish version of the bearish analysis using almost the same chart!

BTW, I will start trading DJIA options, missed a great rally in the DOW tr\his year

See "signal" chart here:

 

https://2tradersclub...-13-year-signal

 

Totally agree!

Yardeni Research (@yardeni) tweeted at 0:02 pm on Sun, Nov 27, 2022:
Yield Curve Spread Signaling Rate Peak

Full story and charts here:

https://www.yardeniq...ling-rate-peak/



#14 dTraderB

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Posted 27 November 2022 - 07:45 PM

YEAH, I also look for rallies for most of the rest of 2022

 

I hate being a bull, but this rally has legs till technology, consumer discretionary, real estate and communications sector play catch up with the leaders: banks, materials , industrials, consumer staples, healthcare, utilities. Dips likely get bought

 

 

 

HA HA   

This is a bullish version of the bearish analysis using almost the same chart!

BTW, I will start trading DJIA options, missed a great rally in the DOW tr\his year

See "signal" chart here:

 

https://2tradersclub...-13-year-signal

 

Totally agree!

Yardeni Research (@yardeni) tweeted at 0:02 pm on Sun, Nov 27, 2022:
Yield Curve Spread Signaling Rate Peak

Full story and charts here:

https://www.yardeniq...ling-rate-peak/

 



#15 dTraderB

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Posted 27 November 2022 - 07:53 PM

A busy final week in November:

 

On the radar
-US house Prices
-PMIs
-Payrolls & Powell
Markets: DXY back to support after failed bounce, 10yr yields trying to breakdown thru 3.7%, gold stalling at resistance, WTI crude broken down to lower support levels, S&P500 brushing up against a key make-or-break point..
 


#16 dTraderB

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Posted 27 November 2022 - 07:54 PM

Same chart again, everyone watching it, most expect rejection at the 200 and back down again; I do not!

Trendline Tasks:  Looks like the market has reclaimed the 4000-level on its second attempt, but now the key task ahead of the S&P500 is to deal with that downtrend line (and the 200-day moving average).

https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-43

Source:  @Callum_Thomas

 

A busy final week in November:

 

On the radar
-US house Prices
-PMIs
-Payrolls & Powell
Markets: DXY back to support after failed bounce, 10yr yields trying to breakdown thru 3.7%, gold stalling at resistance, WTI crude broken down to lower support levels, S&P500 brushing up against a key make-or-break point..
 

 

 



#17 dTraderB

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Posted 27 November 2022 - 07:59 PM

BULLISH chart but this is a very slow one, it has double-bottomed, the big move up from this will be in 2023 Q1, I think....

BONUS CHART >> got to include a goody for the goodies who subscribed.

Value vs Growth:  markets have a habit of stampeding in one direction, only to turnaround and run just as furiously in the opposite direction. It’s reflective of macro/financial cycles, and social/crowd-psychology cycles.

One of the best illustrations of this is the long-term relative performance chart of value stocks vs growth stocks.

https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-43

In this chart I have shown the total return view (i.e. inclusive of dividends reinvested) because the price-only view overstates the underperformance of value stocks (given growth stocks historically generated most of their returns from capital growth rather than dividends as such).

https://chartstorm.substack.com/p/weekly-s-and-p500-chartstorm-27-november

 

 

Same chart again, everyone watching it, most expect rejection at the 200 and back down again; I do not!

Trendline Tasks:  Looks like the market has reclaimed the 4000-level on its second attempt, but now the key task ahead of the S&P500 is to deal with that downtrend line (and the 200-day moving average).

https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-43
 

 

 

Source:  @Callum_Thomas

 

A busy final week in November:

 

On the radar
-US house Prices
-PMIs
-Payrolls & Powell
Markets: DXY back to support after failed bounce, 10yr yields trying to breakdown thru 3.7%, gold stalling at resistance, WTI crude broken down to lower support levels, S&P500 brushing up against a key make-or-break point..
 

 

 

 



#18 linrom1

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Posted 27 November 2022 - 08:29 PM

 

Better than I expected:

 

KEERAT (@VXO150) tweeted at 0:47 pm on Sun, Nov 27, 2022:
MASTERCARD: U.S. RETAIL SALES FRIDAY UP +12% YOY, EX-AUTO

*IN-STORE TRAFFIC BLACK FRIDAY UP BY 2.9% YOY: SENSORMATIC

*DATA SHOWS STRONG US BLACK FRIDAY TURNOUT: SENSORMATIC

Is this the Great Depression ?

I do not rely on these alleged extreme levels... this can change suddenly and also are many ST factors that are at play ... 

BUY many do trade on these types of situations:

 

 
Puts keep getting expensive
Betting on more downside just doesn't stop

https://twitter.com/...910186094292994

 

How are these sales possible with historically lowest consumer sentiment?


Edited by linrom1, 27 November 2022 - 08:30 PM.


#19 12SPX

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Posted 28 November 2022 - 08:38 AM

Last week I was short from 4025 and obviously easy to trade out of it and was back and forth as I was on my mini holiday but now back with an average long of 4008 on the ES as it gapped down at the night session open last night even though bond yields have moved down, oil is down and it appears black friday sales were pretty good.  I notice that Apple is way down though with worries about China but even that will only last so long.  Still think the market overall will have a bit more of a lift til year end but the grind will continue so don't let anyone tell you any different.  Most interesting is that options on both ends seem to be quite neutral price wise with it leaning a little on the too bearish side so we'll see how that goes as we get into the cash session...



#20 K Wave

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Posted 28 November 2022 - 08:47 AM

Apple 145 still the big kahuna level to watch...right there pre-market as 2001 like ugliness continues.

 

Dow finally showing first little signs of weakness after essentially reaching target last week.

Has to break 15 min line though before the air gap to possibly 32k would open up. currently around 33.8k


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