125 replies to this topic

[K Wave]

BTC major hourly wedgie again....

 

under 16800 and starts to look like giant bear flag.

 

But above 17200, bulls could possibly get something going.

[K Wave]

As long as Dow cash can hold above 33700, may get that 34k back test print yet....

 

But failure to launch from here could mean bulls just about outta gas...

[K Wave]

thus far, VIX looking like big intraday bull flag...

 

some weird action today for sure..

 

should sync up soon I would think...

[K Wave]

Bulls finally accomplish first task on Apple back over 143...now we see if they have the juice for 145.

[K Wave]

And trannies managed the entire 5 min air gap run...may get a bit tougher here...

[dTraderB]

My FF is markets rally tomorrow -- unless CPI report indicates abnormally high inflation; even a slightly higher inflation rate is bullish

 

Chart of the Day

 

Today’s Chart of the Day was shared by Rob Hanna (@QuantifiablEdgs). Tomorrow is the highly anticipated November CPI report where market participants will react to the latest inflation data. The market has been holding its breath for this report, considering the S&P 500 is essentially unchanged since last month’s report (excluding today’s rally). You might remember, the S&P 500 jumped +5.54% on last month’s report, which was its best day in more than two years, and its best CPI day ever. CPI days have become increasingly volatile throughout the year as inflation has become a growing concern. Rob points out that the S&P 500’s Average True Range on CPI day has been twice as large as any ‘normal’ day this year. Pay attention to how the market reacts tomorrow as we get the final batch of inflation data this year.

QUOTE OF THE DAY

“Everybody in the world is a long-term investor until the market goes down.”

– Peter Lynch

 

 

[dTraderB]

If SANTA does not show up in 2022:

 

It's that time of the year again.

The infamous Santa Claus rally is just around the corner.

And contrary to popular belief, it doesn't start until the end of next week.

The official period for the Santa Claus rally includes the last 5 trading days of the year and the first two of the following year.

Based on the 2022/2023 holiday schedule, that means this year's Santa Claus Rally begins on Friday December 23th and goes through Wednesday January 4th.

These 7 days have historically had a ridiculous track record, averaging over a 1.3% return for the S&P500 and coming in positive almost 80% of the time.

Since 1950, all other 7-day periods throughout the year only average 0.24% returns and were positive less than 60% of the time.

That's real alpha.

But for me, it's less about the returns during this time of the year, even through they are very impressive, and more about the implications of Santa not showing up.

[dTraderB]

"JP MORGAN SAYS THE S&P 500 CAN RALLY OVER 10% TOMORROW IF Y/Y CPI COMES IN AT 6.9% OR UNDER"

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

GURGAVIN

@gurgavin

·

5h

 

Replying to

@gurgavin

JP MORGAN HAS SHARED 6 POSSIBLE SCENARIOS HERE ARE ALL OF THEM. THE MOST LIKELY AND EXPECTED OUTCOME IS Y/Y CPI COMING IN BETWEEN 7.2% AND 7.4%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

GURGAVIN

@gurgavin

·

5h

 

Replying to

@gurgavin

JP MORGAN HAS SHARED 6 POSSIBLE SCENARIOS HERE ARE ALL OF THEM. THE MOST LIKELY AND EXPECTED OUTCOME IS Y/Y CPI COMING IN BETWEEN 7.2% AND 7.4%

[dTraderB]

MY FF is 6.9%; highest 7.2%

 

GURGAVIN

@gurgavin

·

8h

 

CPI ESTIMATES FOR TOMORROW

CREDIT SUISSE 7.2%

BARCLAYS 7.2%

BLOOMBERG 7.2%

JEFFERIES 7.2%

CITI 7.2%

MORGAN STANLEY 7.2%

WELLS FARGO 7.2%

NOMURA 7.2%

GOLDMAN 7.2%

BMO 7.3%

CIBC 7.3%

JP MORGAN 7.3%

GURGAVIN CAPITAL 7.3%

TD SECURTIES 7.3%

SCOTIABANK 7.4%

MEDIAN 7.3%

[dTraderB]