Jump to content



Photo

we either have a wave 1 of a new bull market or more backing and filling


  • Please log in to reply
7313 replies to this topic

#5551 dharma

dharma

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 9,637 posts

Posted 19 April 2024 - 03:03 PM

in the 87 crash, highs in the broad market was august.  then sell off then rally to lower high i put a big futures short and a small miner long position . the miners got killed. if there is a broad market crash . gold/miners will take it on the chin the margin clerks go for liquid assets.    on that it seems quite clear to me.  we could be in a crash window. and i see a black----day  in may

dharma



#5552 K Wave

K Wave

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 28,075 posts

Posted 19 April 2024 - 04:45 PM

in the 87 crash, highs in the broad market was august.  then sell off then rally to lower high i put a big futures short and a small miner long position . the miners got killed. if there is a broad market crash . gold/miners will take it on the chin the margin clerks go for liquid assets.    on that it seems quite clear to me.  we could be in a crash window. and i see a black----day  in may

dharma

 

Spooky how much AI last 18 months looks like Oct 98 Mar/Apr 2000 

 

Was quite the trip down after the break in April 2000....but some huge swings after the initial break.

 

Pretty sure today was that initial break, so time to start selling any vicious bounces once this wave is done.

 

Here is the 2000 top...NVDA SMCI etc somewhere along the path in April.....

 

Although not ruling out massive crash just yet like 87, this setup is a bit different, as the 87 crash occurred on the breach of the 200 day.

 

This one is more likely just to make it 200 day on a brutal first wave down perhaps... like Naz did in 2000

 


The strength of Government lies in the people's ignorance, and the Government knows this, and will therefore always oppose true enlightenment. - Leo Tolstoy

 

 


#5553 K Wave

K Wave

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 28,075 posts

Posted 19 April 2024 - 04:58 PM

As far as GDX...they did manage to close it barely over 34.

 

So...IF...it does not get hit hard on Monday. then long above 34, and out/hedged for at least a short while if 34 does fail to hold at this point.

 

Still don't think there would be a whole lot of down if 34 does not hold, but if say Platinum were to completely let go next week, something unexpected could be in the cards.


The strength of Government lies in the people's ignorance, and the Government knows this, and will therefore always oppose true enlightenment. - Leo Tolstoy

 

 


#5554 K Wave

K Wave

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 28,075 posts

Posted 19 April 2024 - 05:03 PM

Here is that 2020 leadout by PL...

 

Failure to hold the 200 day is where the washout trouble began.

 

Closed just above 200 day today, so if it manages to hold that through next week, could have a very different outcome this go round.

 

 

 


The strength of Government lies in the people's ignorance, and the Government knows this, and will therefore always oppose true enlightenment. - Leo Tolstoy

 

 


#5555 K Wave

K Wave

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 28,075 posts

Posted 19 April 2024 - 05:05 PM

This would be the Deja Vu bulls DO NOT want to see....Monday could be big in that regard.....

 


Edited by K Wave, 19 April 2024 - 05:06 PM.

The strength of Government lies in the people's ignorance, and the Government knows this, and will therefore always oppose true enlightenment. - Leo Tolstoy

 

 


#5556 K Wave

K Wave

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 28,075 posts

Posted 19 April 2024 - 05:10 PM

UVXY at the finish for the week.

 

If they are gonna lift it off. Monday might be near the end of the time window for doing so....

 

Yet another Cliffhanger...

 

2 hour

 

 

and the 2020 lookalike 4 hour looking to complete the upside cross that led to disaster in 2020

 


The strength of Government lies in the people's ignorance, and the Government knows this, and will therefore always oppose true enlightenment. - Leo Tolstoy

 

 


#5557 K Wave

K Wave

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 28,075 posts

Posted 19 April 2024 - 05:19 PM

Could the catalyst be 2 Yr blowin' out 5??

 

Pretty bull flaggy looking still...and after the SHAKE, might be just about ready to BAKE on a breakout

 

 

But........if it does not breakout, then potential Hangin' Man on daily could get confirmed with a hard break down.

 

in any event. not likely to stayed pinned here much longer at all....and move out could be sizable

 

 

 

 

 


The strength of Government lies in the people's ignorance, and the Government knows this, and will therefore always oppose true enlightenment. - Leo Tolstoy

 

 


#5558 K Wave

K Wave

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 28,075 posts

Posted 19 April 2024 - 05:25 PM

On the bull side of things...FTSE with impressive recovery after the shakeout.....

 

As  long price does not start to live under that hourly 900, this could still go out the top

And if it did, hard to imagine the rest of the markets would tank hard on a FTSE LT breakout....

 

At SOME point, things will be more clear and more in sync.

 


The strength of Government lies in the people's ignorance, and the Government knows this, and will therefore always oppose true enlightenment. - Leo Tolstoy

 

 


#5559 K Wave

K Wave

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 28,075 posts

Posted 19 April 2024 - 05:28 PM

And another impressive recovery in UTES, blasting back above 860...and quite possibly preventing  things from going full LT bear mode there.

 


The strength of Government lies in the people's ignorance, and the Government knows this, and will therefore always oppose true enlightenment. - Leo Tolstoy

 

 


#5560 K Wave

K Wave

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 28,075 posts

Posted 19 April 2024 - 05:37 PM

4  hour Naz crash window move completion not looking so far fetched now, eh?

 

As I always say, it is about where things at least have a good likelihood of occurring.

 

If we do tag it on Monday, could be a spot for first big relief rally to begin.

 

 

And if it were to get real ugly, then next target at 6 hour, would probably be about the max on initial wave down....also pretty big pivot area at 16K ish

 


The strength of Government lies in the people's ignorance, and the Government knows this, and will therefore always oppose true enlightenment. - Leo Tolstoy