6045 replies to this topic

[K Wave]

So.....The Great Halving on BTC is now a done deal.

 

So now we see if this now fairly widely publicly anticipated event, with ETFs and all the trappings, works out similarly to the past.....where BTC has gone up substantially afterwards...or this now turns into a huge sell after the culmination of all the eagerly awaited news...

 

So far BTC has held the roughly 60K area, and if it continues to, and breaks out of the current wedgie back above short term resistance, then it could very well keep climbing.

 

 

But.....if it were to break hard down from this particular spot on the daily chart...say, similar to SMCI, it could be a true death blow after sucking the public mostly all in....

 

See what next week brings us....

 

[K Wave]

Watching the BTC miners action next week could be helpful as they in general closed right near the cliff edge last week

 

Here is MARA for instance, RIOT a bit weaker

 

So big crashes here...or a huge turn around from the cliff edge could tell most of what we need to know.

 

 

 

[K Wave]

When you look at the 15 min BTC chart...SMCI chart gives a clue for what to look for as a possible breakdown scenario

 

See how SMCI wedged and then broke back below the 200, instead of reclaiming the upper pivot line?

 

THAT was the big clue something was amiss with the bull outcome scenario.

 

In any event. I expect BTC will give its yea or nay clue soon enough

 

 

[Smithy]

The US 30 year bond and gold price ratio has gone parabolic. Can anyone tell me why, what the dynamic is?

 

Edited by Smithy, 20 April 2024 - 10:58 AM.

[Smithy]

Truth in posting: The notion of this was lifted from elsewhere, not my original idea 

[beta]

Good point, Smithy.  I've been wondering about this, too.  De-dollarization would be my guess.  Same dynamic with BTC.  It would explain why gold holds steady while equities plunged Friday. 

 

Interesting times we're trading in. 

Edited by beta, 21 April 2024 - 11:59 AM.

[Smithy]

Yeah, gold has risen against both rising rates and rising dollar.

[Smithy]

How far might g&s drop?  We "C".

[K Wave]

Bulls tried get away on Friday, but did not get very far.

 

Now looking like scenario A pullback in the works

 

[K Wave]

GDX could see ABC to test 32 or just below

 

When it actually gets a foothold above 34 again, could be when bulls finally escape into LT bull