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Amateurs Beared-Up


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#1 OEXCHAOS

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Posted 06 January 2023 - 11:51 AM

AAII  Bulls: 20.5%    Bears 42.0%

Thrift Savings Plan 28% Bulls and 58% Bears

 

NAAIM at 30.63% long.

 

So the Amateurs are really Beared-up. The pros are still exposed but not heavily. I view that reading as Bullish for the market, though we've not seen the type of pessimism that will mark the end of the Bear.

 

 


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#2 skott

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Posted 06 January 2023 - 12:06 PM

yep and the amatuers use stops and cover in panics. That's why bears have suprisingly large rallies. Fear/Greed is Neutral. Vix seems way too low for a bottom. I've been surprised by it's behavior for all of 2022



#3 pdx5

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Posted 06 January 2023 - 12:23 PM

AAII  Bulls: 20.5%    Bears 42.0%

Thrift Savings Plan 28% Bulls and 58% Bears

 

NAAIM at 30.63% long.

 

So the Amateurs are really Beared-up. The pros are still exposed but not heavily. I view that reading as Bullish for the market, though we've not seen the type of pessimism that will mark the end of the Bear.

 

 

That data may be pointing in right direction. But the real driver is the FED. Kashkairi the dove on FED said yesterday he wants to see another 100 basis points higher. As inflation slows down, it will reduce corporate earnings as well. My range for SPX in 2023 is 3600-4400.
 


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#4 qqqqtrdr

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Posted 06 January 2023 - 02:09 PM

I'm seeing it in the 10-day put call ratios ( equity,  cboe ) as well..   OEX Put/call is neutral from a Buy a couple days ago which are primarily institutional investors.  Given the full moon we should be at a medium term bottom here. 



#5 OEXCHAOS

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Posted 06 January 2023 - 04:00 PM

yep and the amatuers use stops and cover in panics. That's why bears have suprisingly large rallies. Fear/Greed is Neutral. Vix seems way too low for a bottom. I've been surprised by it's behavior for all of 2022

I only use the relative VIX as a fade. I use the trend in VIX as a smart money indicator.


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#6 skott

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Posted 07 January 2023 - 06:17 PM

But have the amateurs actually sold?  I dont think so. The one's i work with keep buying. Many still believe in bitcoin too.



#7 OEXCHAOS

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Posted 08 January 2023 - 04:57 PM

But have the amateurs actually sold?  I dont think so. The one's i work with keep buying. Many still believe in bitcoin too.

I mentioned this above. This Bear isn't done and by the time it is, the amateurs won't be interested in stocks. BUT, we can rally quite a bit between here and there.

 

Mark


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#8 skott

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Posted 08 January 2023 - 10:39 PM

Agree. Wish i could post the univ of Michigan consumer sentiment overlayed over AAII.  They want to sell but cant BEAR to take the loss



#9 Douglas

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Posted 09 January 2023 - 12:06 PM

skott, ask and thou shall receive.  Not sure what to make of it other than to see that both consumer and amateur investor sentiment is currently pretty lousy but off the bottom.

 

Bc025Mi.jpg

 

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Douglas



#10 linrom1

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Posted 09 January 2023 - 12:14 PM

skott, ask and thou shall receive.  Not sure what to make of it other than to see that both consumer and amateur investor sentiment is currently pretty lousy but off the bottom.

 

Bc025Mi.jpg

 

Regards,

Douglas

U of Michigan Sentiment Index has an excellent record. It basically tells that we've been in a two year recession since March '20.