linrom1, the St. Louis Fed (FRED) plot below shows Michigan Consumer Confidence data versus recessions going back to 1980 or so, and you are right if history is any guide, the plunge down in the Michigan number means that we should be in a recession and maybe are in some sectors. In the age of ZIRP and Fed massive money printing, maybe economic cycles really are different (a.k.a. distorted beyond all recognition).
Regards,
Douglas
