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ST RESISTANCE then RALLY RESUMES


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#1 dTraderB

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Posted 16 January 2023 - 11:48 AM

Happy MLK DAY!
ST RESISTANCE at current and nearby levels.
But, my FF is a rally, with pullbacks, with SPX 4400 target in 2023.
Quite possible SPX can top off in the SPX 4600 in 2023.

CAVEAT: EXTREMELY SERIOUS GEOPOLITICAL EVENTS will stop any rally.

#2 dTraderB

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Posted 16 January 2023 - 12:08 PM

BANK OF JAPAN in focus... JGB jitters..
YCC

18
Fourth-quarter GDP from China will be watched closely by market participants in the Asian session on Tuesday amid growing concerns over a global economic slowdown. The Bank of Japan is likely to keep its policy settings unchanged but officials will reportedly review the negative impact of the loose monetary policy and the yield curve control strategy on the economy. December Retail Sales data and the Federal Reserve's Beige Book will be featured in the US economic docket as markets remain convinced of a 25 basis points Fed rate hike in February.

#3 redfoliage2

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Posted 16 January 2023 - 12:52 PM

Traders are betting on PPI data out on Wednesday before the cash market opens, that is likely lower and so may be in favor of bulls .................. 


Edited by redfoliage2, 16 January 2023 - 12:58 PM.


#4 dTraderB

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Posted 17 January 2023 - 06:59 AM


Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley are set to report fourth-quarter results ahead of the opening bell. Shares were down 0.8% and 0.5% premarket, respectively.

#5 dTraderB

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Posted 17 January 2023 - 07:01 AM


Key developments that should provide more direction to U.S. markets later on Tuesday:
U.S. Jan Empire Manufacturing index, Canada Dec inflation
Bank of Japan begins two-day policy meeting. World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. ECOFIN of EU finance ministers meets in Brussels
New York Federal Reserve President John Williams speaks
U.S. corporate earnings: Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, United Airlines, Signature Bank, Citizens Financial

Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley are set to report fourth-quarter results ahead of the opening bell. Shares were down 0.8% and 0.5% premarket, respectively.



#6 dTraderB

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Posted 17 January 2023 - 07:03 AM

The crowd now exoects a rebpund SO THE MARKET WILL DO THE OPPOSITE, ST


January 17, 2023

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The Economy Is Hitting Its Trough. The Markets Rebound May Have Already Begun.
Last year was worse for stocks than for the economy, though worries about the economic outlook were one of the biggest sources of gloom in the market

The reckoning may be coming now. After the most aggressive Federal Reserve tightening campaign in a decade amid soaring inflation, most economists now see a U.S. recession starting in the first quarter, according to the latest Wall Street Journal survey.

Investment banks posting earnings statements concur. JPMorgan, Bank of America, and Citigroup dont see a soft landing as their most likely outcome this year. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley report Tuesday, and the Fed releases its beige book summarizing regional outlooks on Wednesday. Retail sales, also published Wednesday, are expected to have dropped last month.

From a global perspective, International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva says world growth will definitely slow this year, with its forecast for expansion about half a percentage point lower than for 2022.

But the good news from the IMFs Georgieva is that she doesnt expect to have to downgrade her forecast any more, and sees a recovery in 2024. JPMorgans Jamie Dimon, who once foresaw an economic hurricane, now says that any recession will be mild. China is expected to start recovering soon after posting some of the worst growth on record in 2022.

Thats good news for companies such as Netflix, which also reports this week. And its great news for investors. The market usually bottoms out before the economy. The start of a recession often coincides with the start of a market rebound.

The S&P 500 is up 4% since Jan. 1. The rebound in markets may have already begun.

#7 K Wave

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Posted 17 January 2023 - 07:32 AM

Pretty huge miss on GS....but it is the stock reaction today that matters....

 

Bears got nuthin' unless they can get it back under 360...

 

https://twitter.com/...serp|twgr^tweet


Edited by K Wave, 17 January 2023 - 07:34 AM.

The strength of Government lies in the people's ignorance, and the Government knows this, and will therefore always oppose true enlightenment. - Leo Tolstoy

 

 


#8 dTraderB

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Posted 17 January 2023 - 07:33 AM

CITI is too gloomy

"Reactions to softer CPI and average hourly earnings from Logan, Brainard, Williams and Waller this week will probably guide more clearly toward a 25bp or 50bp hike in February. Our base case remains for 50bp... we think policy rates will end the year comfortably above 5%" Citi

 



#9 dTraderB

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Posted 17 January 2023 - 07:35 AM

Down by less than 2%

Morgan Stanley down by less than 1/2 % 

Similar to banks last week that missed, dropped, then finished green

 

Lower earnings already priced into the market except HUGE MISSES

 

But markets already up in Jan so far so more likely it will drop/consolidate 

 

Pretty huge miss on GS....but it is the stock reaction today that matters....

 

Bears got nuthin' unless they can get it back under 360...



#10 dTraderB

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Posted 17 January 2023 - 07:49 AM

 
Closing update: Choppy holiday session as expected & #ES_F hit 4020 1st target then rejected.
3995 must keep holding to keep 4045 in play.
If long, tighten stops after 4 days of higher highs + Daily RSI(5) remains very overbought.