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One of the hallmarks of Bear markets.


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#1 skott

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Posted 18 January 2023 - 10:43 AM

Early morning rallies. One hour. As the amatuers buy in. Time will tell



#2 skott

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Posted 18 January 2023 - 11:02 AM

XLE and SMH look like great shorts. Do you want to sell high and buy low or what?  Look how much they rallied from the 2020 low. 

 

ESG is going to wreak havoc on our lives. It's criminal. Do you all even know about that? the EU is signing it into law and it will affect USA. Not sure yet if the USA is also adopting this "standard" internally as well. They are coming for us for everything we have. It will wreak absolute chaos on the supply chain.



#3 skott

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Posted 18 January 2023 - 11:08 AM

that 11615 in the naz futures is being tested/broken again..  I think we are going down for months. Ofc I could be wrong but I'd say at least into March/April. maybe till June. If the VIX starts screaming, I'll close shorts unless I chicken out ahead of time



#4 skott

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Posted 18 January 2023 - 11:14 AM

The real definition of a bear market is a series of lower lows and lower highs. Do you see them?  it's not the silly TV rule of 20% decline = bear market



#5 skott

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Posted 18 January 2023 - 11:43 AM

I forget who commented on my MSI trade but we maybe testing that 255 mark soon.



#6 Douglas

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Posted 18 January 2023 - 11:45 AM

skott, many moons ago I used to track something called the smart money indicator which was basically just the cumulative first hour of DJIA trading gain (or loss) minus the last hour DJIA gain (or loss).  I looked for divergences with the DJIA index.  Theory being, as you said, dumb money tends to act first thing in the morning and smart money acts at the end of the day.  I can't remember why I stopped tracking it, probably just the sheer amount of work required for infrequent signals. 

 

I'm not sure what the proliferation of overnight trading has done to this indicator.  The plot below shows that just about all the gains for the period 1993 to 2019 could be captured by buying on the close and selling on the open.  I can't remember where I found this chart, but it's seriously amazing if correct.  I even have a name for a system based on this, The Vampire System, works in the dark and sucks the blood out of the market, or maybe just The Bela Lugosi for all the old film buffs out there.

 

aoi07VJ.jpg

 

Regards,

Douglas



#7 skott

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Posted 18 January 2023 - 12:07 PM

I can believe it. Imagine if you just bought 100 sh QQQ each end of day and sold after the first hour.



#8 skott

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Posted 18 January 2023 - 12:13 PM

I'd say sell during or at the end of the first hour but sometimes like Dec 13th, it can be just an 8 second rally. most of it was pre market



#9 skott

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Posted 18 January 2023 - 12:20 PM

The ESG rules may be why the DOW started down before anything else. It's criminal, part of the climate change conspiracy to use the climate to control everything and everyone.



#10 skott

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Posted 19 January 2023 - 09:42 AM

First we had baby bear in 2022. Now we get Mama bear this year.

 

MSI is/has tested 255 this morning. Holding so far.