MSI rose to fill today's open down gap and has resumed it's descent now below 255.
11,350 on the Naz futures looks pretty important ST
One of the hallmarks of Bear markets.
Started by
skott
, Jan 18 2023 10:43 AM
23 replies to this topic
#12
skott
-
- Traders-Talk User
- 4,712 posts
Member
Posted 19 January 2023 - 12:01 PM
If you took the SMH short yesterday when I mentioned it you could have shorted at 231 at best. The low of the first fours when I mentioned it was 229.85. So plenty of time for a good entry. It's now between 220. Mid Oct low was 166. Any reason it can't go back there? Was it a valid price then? Price said so at the time. the Pandemic low is 96. I don't know where the bottom will be but the VIX doesn't seem to indicating we are anywhere near a bottom in the markets.
#14
skott
-
- Traders-Talk User
- 4,712 posts
Member
#15
skott
-
- Traders-Talk User
- 4,712 posts
Member
Posted 24 January 2023 - 02:30 PM
I can't remember where I got this from but the thinking was when the Fed actually cuts the market will really crash. Sell on the news? Anyone think the market will crash when the fed cuts rates? Will it be seen as a sign of desperation? I think we have a ways to go before that happens but that counterintuitive thought keeps coming to mind. I can't remember if there is a precedent for that or not
#16
skott
-
- Traders-Talk User
- 4,712 posts
Member
Posted 24 January 2023 - 02:43 PM
There is one thing that is undisputed. More money came into the market in 2021/2022 than in the combined last two decades. And you dont think that is a bubble that will collapse?
https://www.bloomber...ecades-combined
Here are two important post-bubble collapse principles: 1) the S&P 500 will go below the peak from its previous bull market (1576.09, October 11, 2007); 2) it will take over a decade for the S&P 500 to return to its most recent top (4818.62, January 4, 2022) at which point it will be much lower after adjusting for inflation.
#18
skott
-
- Traders-Talk User
- 4,712 posts
Member
#19
skott
-
- Traders-Talk User
- 4,712 posts
Member
Posted 25 January 2023 - 10:01 AM
People get fooled by big up days during bear markets....thinking it's over. Look back at previous bears, recently 2000 to 2002 and the 2008 bear. They have more 2% plus up days than a real bull market
#20
skott
-
- Traders-Talk User
- 4,712 posts
Member
Posted 25 January 2023 - 10:14 AM
You can make money trading them but if you buy the dips, eventually it won't work. And If we are in a bear, this year may act differently than last year. If it breaks, it will break hard. I think we would see QQQ below 200 before June, maybe as early as late March
