Jump to content



Photo

poor bears


  • Please log in to reply
15 replies to this topic

#11 OEXCHAOS

OEXCHAOS

    Mark S. Young

  • Admin
  • 21,559 posts

Posted 22 January 2023 - 02:08 PM

BEARS? WHERE?

AAII has the least bears since April's TOP!

Bull to bear ratio is similar to the August and the late September top.

 

(I wonder what a Monday gap up would do?)

Hey Roger,

I saw this as well and considered it at least ST Bearish. The thing is, most of that voting occurred before the market got shellacked. I also didn't like how they got so Bullish, BUT, TSP, which is also made up of amateurs had their poll out Thursday morning, after the shellacking, and THEY were VERY Beared-up (24% Bulls 58% Bears). That, to me, says that while the amateurs are willing to get bullish, they also are fast to turn bearish again.

So, things may be a bit more constructive than you were thinking on the sentiment front.

And, to that end, the FinTwit poll has got 58% Bears as of right now, and this after a pretty substantial rally. So, maybe it's a bit premature to bet on the Bear resuming. Maybe.

 

Mark


Mark S Young
Wall Street Sentiment
Get a free trial here:
http://wallstreetsen...t.com/trial.htm
You can now follow me on twitter


#12 Rogerdodger

Rogerdodger

    Member

  • TT Member*
  • 26,304 posts

Posted 22 January 2023 - 03:14 PM

bit premature to bet on the Bear resuming.

Thanks Mark.

I was thinking that a gap up Monday may be a short term high.

 

I think this was cooked into Friday's price action:

 

"According to a poll by Reuters News, 80% of the forecasters (68 of 83) included in the poll believe that if inflation continues to decline the Federal Reserve will raise rates by 25 basis points at the next two FOMC meetings and then likely hold interest rates steady for at least the rest of the year."

 

NOTE: Below, I tried to superimpose the SPX price chart onto CNN's charts. They don't match exactly, but can see that they tend to move together.

 

CNN FEAR & GREED

 

greed.jpg

 

greed2.jpg


Edited by Rogerdodger, 22 January 2023 - 05:53 PM.


#13 blustar

blustar

    blustar

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 5,808 posts

Posted 22 January 2023 - 04:10 PM

I was looking for a rally on Friday and got out of shorts on Thursday. In my opinion, there should be one more strong down wave over the next session or two and then a "b" wave rally into the end of the week before going down hard "c" into Feb 3-6. So this would be 'c' of "a" of C of {A}. Uranus goes stationary today and Venus conj. Saturn. A Uranus Station is usually associated with volatility and the latter a low close buy. We are due a combo 17-20 TD low on the SPX and 20-17 on the NDX. A move down to test the Dec low could happen quickly early this coming week. That is the way I see it.



#14 pdx5

pdx5

    I want return OF my money more than return ON my money

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 9,050 posts

Posted 22 January 2023 - 06:21 PM

FED's Waller said he expects rates will be 5%+ through year 2023.
FWIW.

Edited by pdx5, 22 January 2023 - 06:22 PM.

"Money cannot consistently be made trading every day or every week during the year." ~ Jesse Livermore Trading Rule

#15 K Wave

K Wave

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 17,149 posts

Posted 22 January 2023 - 06:34 PM

FED's Waller said he expects rates will be 5%+ through year 2023.
FWIW.

You mean this guy?

 

https://www.benzinga...-mistake-waller

 

Why people pay any attention to completely clueless way behind the market talking heads is beyond me.

 

2 year says no need for any more increases (barring a huge 10 day rampola)...Fed, if they hike again, asking for trouble..


The strength of Government lies in the people's ignorance, and the Government knows this, and will therefore always oppose true enlightenment. - Leo Tolstoy

 

 


#16 Rogerdodger

Rogerdodger

    Member

  • TT Member*
  • 26,304 posts

Posted 22 January 2023 - 07:46 PM

Why people pay any attention to completely clueless way behind the market talking heads is beyond me.

 

The market talking heads provide valuable mis-direction for da-boyz.

I quit watching CNBC years ago at the peak of the Crypto bubble.

But one day I was at a client's home who had  CNBC on the television.

I was shocked at nearly 90% CRYPTO talk with price banners running non-stop!.

My client insisted that I buy Bitcoin at $65,000! (And keep stacking if it dropped any.)

He promised me that great wealth would come to me.

His evangelistic excitement was palpable.

I knew that smell from the days of Ostrich eggs and Chinchilla farms.

Bitcoin is now down a "bit".

 

Jim Cramer Cries and Apologizes On National Television After Being Wrong On Meta (Facebook) Stock


Edited by Rogerdodger, 22 January 2023 - 08:40 PM.