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Looks Like a Sucker's Play to Me!

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#1 blustar

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Posted 23 January 2023 - 02:13 PM

BluStar Market Insights
January 23, 2023
 
 
Today's rally looks like the last gasp of the Tech Rally and the Cryptos. The former generals, the DJI and NYSE Indexes, are both failing miserably! This is NOT a good sign, as we now have multi-divergent highs being formed here!
 
The key, of course, is the upcoming FED meeting. We are running an approximate 4.5 month cycle, suggesting a strong impulse low on Feb 3 and an irregular low on the next 16 TD low due Feb 10 down into the 3500's, maybe even the 3400's on the S&P 500.
 
We see this as a perfect set up for the "w-x-y" B Wave into early March and then the inevitable "a-b-c" C Wave crash from March into early/mid April.
 
Uranus is now Direct and late Feb 3 sees the Sun sq. Uranus and Venus sq. Mars on the 4th. I believe it to be wishful thinking on those holdovers of the past who think the bear is done, and they are throwing everything at this. This, in our opinion, is the classic sucker's play! 
 
 


#2 skott

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Posted 23 January 2023 - 03:57 PM

My bet on the short side was initially good. My problem often repeated is taking too large a position. Because of the size I'll likely exit very soon. Extremely distressing health situation doesn't help. Believe me, I pray. Always do.

 

Anyway Brad, can you at least admit you were wrong? so many collapse predictions by such a date. I still think it's a bear but it can go higher even more. UVIX 4.15



#3 pdx5

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Posted 23 January 2023 - 11:52 PM

There was no bear of any significant magnitude since the pre-pandemic high was around 2900, and during 2022 market did not descend below 3500.

That 4800 level was just irrational exuberance !!


"Money cannot consistently be made trading every day or every week during the year." ~ Jesse Livermore Trading Rule

#4 skott

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Posted 24 January 2023 - 12:09 AM

A bear market is by definition a series of lower highs and lower lows



#5 12SPX

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Posted 24 January 2023 - 08:32 AM

There was no bear of any significant magnitude since the pre-pandemic high was around 2900, and during 2022 market did not descend below 3500.

That 4800 level was just irrational exuberance !!

When we were at 4800, I only shorted the market for months until we got down to about 4500 I think lol!! 



#6 K Wave

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Posted 24 January 2023 - 02:46 PM

There was no bear of any significant magnitude since the pre-pandemic high was around 2900, and during 2022 market did not descend below 3500.

That 4800 level was just irrational exuberance !!

Yup, unless we start going over the cliff soon, this is potentially only a run of the mill touch and go off the 900 day area. Market has seen many of these over the last 100+ years.

 

It is when you get the BREACH of the 900 day, with 200 below 900 that you actually get a full on bear market.

 

As it stand right now, only The Naz is flashing bear signals, and it still an area where those could get cancelled.

 

But....if we start breaking down some time over the next week or so, we could see many other sectors start flashing bear signals as well.

 

Full on bears are not actually very common, but after the extreme Covid funny money bubble popped, I am not ruling out another one here just yet.

I may change my mind in a week or 2.

 

Critical next few weeks....

 

As an example of the above, here are last 2 episodes where market actually went bear mode.

 

2008

 

2001

 

 

 

Here a re a few examples of touch n go

 

2016

 

 

 

1987 & 1990 double touch n go

As an aside, one of the reasons I discovered the power of the 900 MA, is I was perplexed as to why 1987 and 1929 stopped where they did on the crash waves, and why 1987 did not turn into 1929-1932 with very similar peaks.

They both went initially to the 900, but after the big bounce wave, Dow in 87 did not then take out the 900 on the way down like it did in 1930, and instead managed to get a foothold back above the 200 day. And THAT was the big difference.

 

 


The strength of Government lies in the people's ignorance, and the Government knows this, and will therefore always oppose true enlightenment. - Leo Tolstoy

 

 


#7 K Wave

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Posted 24 January 2023 - 02:55 PM

Along those lines, here are the conflicting signals we have right now....eventually they will get back in sync....which way, is the question.

 

Dow appears to have at least a foothold over the 200, while Naz Comp appears to thinking real hard about full on bear mode.

 

I expect the "syncing up" likely begins during next few weeks....so beware of getting over committed to one direction or the other until then.

 

 

 

Dow 2023

 

 

Naz 2023

 

 

And SPX could easily go either way...but would likely have to start down pretty quickly.

 


Edited by K Wave, 24 January 2023 - 02:55 PM.

The strength of Government lies in the people's ignorance, and the Government knows this, and will therefore always oppose true enlightenment. - Leo Tolstoy

 

 


#8 pdx5

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Posted 24 January 2023 - 05:24 PM

kwave, 2023 does not look great for bulls in my 82 year old eyes. LT investors will lose more money to inflation than gain in market.


"Money cannot consistently be made trading every day or every week during the year." ~ Jesse Livermore Trading Rule

#9 skott

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Posted 24 January 2023 - 06:38 PM

Interesting stuff kwave. Thanks



#10 blustar

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Posted Yesterday, 03:44 PM

1_25_23_spx_4_hr.png

 

The low on 1/31 could be 1/30 for the SPX & NDX and 1/31 for the DJI. A failing rally into Feb 1 would be next.







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