12 replies to this topic

[EntropyModel]

Data shift I went over confirmed in latest poll - sometimes polling doesn't catch it depending on day/how polls run, but this one sure did.

Note the bottom bull/bear ratio! bears have left the building - I see it on real money data clearest.

https://mark_davidson1-yahoo.tinytake.com/msc/Nzg3ODQ2Nl8yMDk2MjA1OQ

 

* I don't have the TSP poll this week as not posted - interested to see that, I find that one of better ones. NAIIM also higher than its been so all fairly 'in line'.

Edited by EntropyModel, 09 February 2023 - 01:37 PM.

[skott]

whatever you said, yep to that.

[EntropyModel]

whatever you said, yep to that.

 

"Posted 07 February 2023 - 12:33 PM

...

 - we blew out top of SPX range 4100 - by 2% upto the 4200 weekly bear resistance post FED  and FAILED there 

 - NYMO gave a sell signal here and summations are rolling over

 - Sentiment has seen on my real$ data one of biggest shifts from 'bearish to bullish' positions relative to price change in HISTORY ..read that a few times!"

 

https://www.traders-...-bearish-to-me/

Edited by EntropyModel, 09 February 2023 - 01:54 PM.

[skott]

I believe it. I've just been saying it in a different way, with different facts. The vix was the same at the recent low as it was at a top. how stupid and complacent is that? 

Edited by skott, 09 February 2023 - 02:06 PM.

[EntropyModel]

I believe it. I've just been in a different, with different facts. The vix was the same at the recent low as it was at a top. how stupid and complacent is that? 

 

Yep agree Scott,  the VIX is in a dangerous area for long RISK if we now get price reversal .17-18 area.

 

 

....key part of model is Volatility - It is beginning to show a vERY DANGEROUS SIGNATURE - it is not there yet ..but 

need to keep a very close eye what PRICE does whenever say VIX gets to 17-18 area - if it keeps selling off, its very bearish.

.

Edited by EntropyModel, 09 February 2023 - 02:09 PM.

[steadyquest]

These two charts seem to suggest an important shift in investor positioning has recently.occured.  The contrarian in me suspects this to be the necessary setup for a truly damaging next leg down - assuming such is in the cards.

 

 

 

Will the bulls be able to close this below the line tomorrow?

 

[pdx5]

The effect of FED raising interest rates takes time to work into the economy. Inflation is not going to drop to FED's target of 2% in 2023.

Downturn in housing sales is only in initial stages. Employment numbers are still strong and retail sales are showing resilience. Which means the FED is in no position to lower rates anytime soon. It will be a slow grind lower for both economy and stocks in 2023 is what I am thinking.

Edited by pdx5, 09 February 2023 - 03:34 PM.

[K Wave]

The effect of FED raising interest rates takes time to work into the economy. Inflation is not going to drop to FED's target of 2% in 2023.

Downturn in housing sales is only in initial stages. Employment numbers are still strong and retail sales are showing resilience. Which means the FED is in no position to lower rates anytime soon. It will be a slow grind lower for both economy and stocks in 2023 is what I am thinking.

If the Fed wasn't always behind the curve, and was proactive AT ALL, they would have realized that it takes time and they would have stopped hiking.

But because they have no critical thinking skills, and no ability to think even 1 move ahead...here we are, with them gonna overdo it yet again...

This is nothing new of course. Been doing it for 100 years...

Edited by K Wave, 09 February 2023 - 07:30 PM.

[EntropyModel]

 

The effect of FED raising interest rates takes time to work into the economy. Inflation is not going to drop to FED's target of 2% in 2023.

Downturn in housing sales is only in initial stages. Employment numbers are still strong and retail sales are showing resilience. Which means the FED is in no position to lower rates anytime soon. It will be a slow grind lower for both economy and stocks in 2023 is what I am thinking.

If the Fed wasn't always behind the curve, and was proactive AT ALL, they would have realized that it takes time and they would have stopped hiking.

But because they have no critical thinking skills, and no ability to think even 1 move ahead...here we are, with them gonna overdo it yet again...

This is nothing new of course. Been doing it for 100 years...

 

 

Riiighhht ..because the FED are just that stupid - OR ..is it because for last 100 years that's exactly what they INTENDED, which is more believable ? that all those Phd in Math can't figure this out, or they infact do it intentionally. . 

 I predicted they would do this a year ago - its very predictable - I said they would deliberately stay behind the curve, to force bond market to sell off ..why did I know they would? because I understand the FED don't work for us,

but for Powers that Be ... and their intension is to create bubbles - let insiders sell out - then pop them - the let insiders buy low - create new bubbles - rinse repeat for last 23 years ...of course, eventually they will pop them and won't re create - possibly this time.

I do think this time is different ...in that the preceeding bubbles were bigger - and the descent is likely slower ... but i'm uncertain if we get one more 'rinse repeat' bubble fest or they just collapse whole system this time.

 

People ignore the reality that FED create 10T out of thin out to buy bonds, artificially creating housing/stocks bubbles ... and failed to do QT in 2021 to stop inflation - so, they created this ...and essentially the entire 'economy' is a QE bubble.

 

It seems from reading around that literally 99% of 'experts' and 'retail' believe the FED will do QE again - by which they mean, create more bubbles - but, I suspect they will NOT this time - too early to be sure, but that is when

this era of financial alchemy and idiocracy is over.  There are TWO key reasons I gave a year ago as to why this time is different

 1. We are now in K-spring - and that will BOX them in, any attempts at large scale QE will cause what we saw in 2021 - massive inflation - self defeating as then bonds sell off and raise rates 

2. The PTB obvious intension to 'control demolish' this system and replace it with new digital economy free of current issues such as inflation, debt and restrictions on Money creation.

Edited by EntropyModel, 09 February 2023 - 08:42 PM.

[K Wave]

 

 

The effect of FED raising interest rates takes time to work into the economy. Inflation is not going to drop to FED's target of 2% in 2023.

Downturn in housing sales is only in initial stages. Employment numbers are still strong and retail sales are showing resilience. Which means the FED is in no position to lower rates anytime soon. It will be a slow grind lower for both economy and stocks in 2023 is what I am thinking.

If the Fed wasn't always behind the curve, and was proactive AT ALL, they would have realized that it takes time and they would have stopped hiking.

But because they have no critical thinking skills, and no ability to think even 1 move ahead...here we are, with them gonna overdo it yet again...

This is nothing new of course. Been doing it for 100 years...

 

 

Riiighhht ..because the FED are just that stupid - OR ..is it because for last 100 years that's exactly what they INTENDED, which is more believable ? that all those Phd in Math can't figure this out, or they infact do it intentionally. . 

 I predicted they would do this a year ago - its very predictable - I said they would deliberately stay behind the curve, to force bond market to sell off ..why did I know they would? because I understand the FED don't work for us,

but for Powers that Be ... and their intension is to create bubbles - let insiders sell out - then pop them - the let insiders buy low - create new bubbles - rinse repeat for last 23 years ...of course, eventually they will pop them and won't re create - possibly this time.

I do think this time is different ...in that the preceeding bubbles were bigger - and the descent is likely slower ... but i'm uncertain if we get one more 'rinse repeat' bubble fest or they just collapse whole system this time.

 

People ignore the reality that FED create 10T out of thin out to buy bonds, artificially creating housing/stocks bubbles ... and failed to do QT in 2021 to stop inflation - so, they created this ...and essentially the entire 'economy' is a QE bubble.

 

It seems from reading around that literally 99% of 'experts' and 'retail' believe the FED will do QE again - by which they mean, create more bubbles - but, I suspect they will NOT this time - too early to be sure, but that is when

this era of financial alchemy and idiocracy is over.  There are TWO key reasons I gave a year ago as to why this time is different

 1. We are now in K-spring - and that will BOX them in, any attempts at large scale QE will cause what we saw in 2021 - massive inflation - self defeating as then bonds sell off and raise rates 

2. The PTB obvious intension to 'control demolish' this system and replace it with new digital economy free of current issues such as inflation, debt and restrictions on Money creation.

 

Yes, especially after the Covid nonsense, very hard to be willing to rule out pure evil, rather than incompetence.

 

And MMT combined with CBDC has all the makings for an Orwellian nightmare, unless of course you just become a useful idiot for the party, which many, as we have already seen, will have no problem doing.