30 replies to this topic

[EntropyModel]

Been sick so not time ot post charts but in brief ( and I made comments in thread below)

 - we blew out top of SPX range 4100 - by 2% upto the 4200 weekly bear resistance post FED  and FAILED there 

 - NYMO gave a sell signal here and summations are rolling over

 - Sentiment has seen on my real$ data one of biggest shifts from 'bearish to bullish' positions relative to price change in HISTORY ..read that a few times!

 - price has failed to hold the breakout pivot 4100

 

I beleive the current SWING up has topped or topping -  the IT trend is harder to say ..this may just be a drop to clear the overflowing bull bus ..but so MUST hold pivots

 - 4080 ..4040 ..then 3950 is huge.

 

Note - this is what I predicted would occur before the FED last week -

"Posted 31 January 2023 - 02:03 PM

HEADS UP - if the data i'm seeing is correct, and no reason to believe its not - this Looks more and more like approaching a RETAIL BLOW OFF moment here ..rapid shift to bullishness/covering shorts ahead of the FED here ... I think this will put in the PEAK RETAIL LONG postion ( least shorts, least cash into longs since top in early 2022 REALTIVE to PRICE )  for this bounce before or after the FED ... prices can grind higher still ...but this looks for whatever reason the moment of the 'big flip' as I call it based on data. The Polls may not pick this up - as i've gone over. This supports prices for now  but longer term is a very bearish development as i've gone over - I cd be wrong, just my view FWIW

"

 

https://www.traders-...for-2023/page-3

Edited by EntropyModel, 07 February 2023 - 01:41 PM.

[EntropyModel]

*ALSO - DOLLAR high odds finally made that multi week LOW in 101 area I went over - now has impulsive move up.

[blustar]

We agree..

[da_cheif]

as long as the bears are in agreement   .....the wall of worry remains intact  ...;watch the sky

[redfoliage2]

Likely an IT top was in ............................

[da_cheif]

Likely an IT top was in ............................

add another to the list....thank u thank u thank u

[EntropyModel]

Yeah to be clear - I am not a 'bear' (actually long whole rally) or 'a Bull' -  I am only look at objective data- that data is very clear here as I said.

My views have nothing to do with anyone elses, just reporting what my data is.

The signals/data have a good track record, but no one can predict the future etc etc insert usual disclaimers :-)

Edited by EntropyModel, 07 February 2023 - 02:51 PM.

[EntropyModel]

Let me put this a different way -   RISK is increasing on the LONG side next 1-2 weeks here data is saying.(swing'ish timeframe)

doesnt' mean we can't go up - nothing is 100% .game of odds ...but I would not add longs here personally in this 4150-4200 spx area.

 

For investment timeframe - i am doing nothing, hold long ...but as said, if 3950 is taken out that changes...long way off right now so time to manage positions.

 

I just call it as I(my data) see's - 'right' or 'wrong'.

If I had to guess - we could see a period of up/down in this 4150-4200 maybe 4250 area max ...before a sustained down swing ..but hard to call that detail, market

is very emotional at moment.

* I hate to mention waves as it seems to provoke many - but likely this is completed 'C' ..now D ...or still in 5 of C next couple sessions.

Edited by EntropyModel, 07 February 2023 - 03:22 PM.

[EntropyModel]

Isn't it State of union tonight? often goosed for that - I could see that marking Short term high tomorrow.

I cd be wrong but this looks like emotional euphoria to me - calls, rydex, tape and other show it we'll soon see, if can't

hold 4200 this weekly close  again that wd be big negative.

Edited by EntropyModel, 07 February 2023 - 03:53 PM.

[da_cheif]

tomorrow is WWW ''''   idealy  marked with reaction....then a ramp into the 17th opex and new moon