474 replies to this topic

[dTraderB]

Adding ES SHORT HEDGE ASAP.

[dTraderB]

PENTAGON: THE OBJECT FLEW CLOSE TO SENSITIVE US MILITARY LOCATIONS.

PENTAGON: THE OBJECT SHOT DOWN ON SUNDAY POSED A THREAT DUE TO ITS PROSPECTIVE SURVEILLANCE CAPABILITIES.

Adding ES SHORT HEDGE ASAP.

[dTraderB]

That's it, until tomorrow.... unless WWW 3 breaks out...

Adam Mancini (@AdamMancini4) tweeted at 1:36 PM on Sat, Feb 11, 2023:
Have a great weekend! On Jan 25, #ES_F broke its 1 year downtrend at 4k & rallied 230 points. This week, it cooled off, forming a bull flag 4065-4160

Next week: 4085, 4065=supports. As long as they hold; rally to 4160, dip, breakout to 4205+ in play. 4065 fails, we sell to 3990
https://t.co/UNLbr8c1UQ

[dTraderB]

BRAVE CALL FROM MORGAN STANLEY:
Price action is not reflective of the deteriorating fundamentals or the fact that the Fed is hiking during an earnings recession drivers that should ultimately determine the lows for this bear market later this spring. Risk-reward is as poor as it's been

MS Mike Wilson

[dTraderB]

"This Week: Consumer Prices, Retail Sales, More Earnings Reports
As investors try to forecast the Federal Reserves next steps, they will be watching the consumer price index for January closely on Tuesday. The Streets consensus is that CPI rose 0.5% for the month. The full-year forecast is a rise of 6.2%, which would be the slowest pace since October 2021.

Some economists are pointing to the possibility of an upturn in economic growth after surprisingly strong hiring and consumer spending in January, The Wall Street Journal reported. Analysts will be watching for signs that demand for automobiles and housing might be stabilizing.
The National Federation of Independent Business releases the Small Business Optimism Index for January on Tuesday. Analysts expect a 90 reading, roughly even with Decembers, which was below the 49-year average of 98. Inflation remains a key focus for small-business owners.
The Census Bureau releases retail sales for January on Wednesday. Analysts expect a monthly rise of 1.5%, compared with a 1.1% drop in December. Not counting autos or fuel, the expected increase for the month is 0.2%.
Coca-Cola is scheduled to report earnings on Tuesday. Analysts are expecting earnings per share of 45 cents for the fourth quarter on revenue of $10 billion. Rival PepsiCos earnings beat expectations, showing beverage makers have been able to overcome price increases.
Whats Next: Futures traders see a 90% chance that the Fed will raise rates above 5% by June, up from 45% a month ago, the Journal reported, citing CME Group. They forecast a 45% chance that rates stay above that through the end of the year, up from 3% a month ago."

Liz Moyer
BARRON'S

[dTraderB]

Golden Cross Carries Some Little-Known Magic
Tom McClellan | February 10, 2023 at 04:13 PM

https://stockcharts....e-litt-458.html

[pdx5]

GOLDEN CROSS

Meanwhile, chart watchers noted that the S&P 500s 50-day moving average rose above its 200-day moving average on Thursday, a pattern known as a golden cross.

Since 1950, the S&P 500 has produced an average 12-month return of 10.5% after a golden cross formed, while the overall average annual return since 1950 is 9.1%, according to Adam Turnquist, chief technical strategist at LPL Research.

However, when a golden cross has appeared as the 200-day moving average is declining - as it is now - the average 12-month return for the S&P 500 jumps to 16.8%.

"The recent golden cross adds to the growing technical evidence of a trend change for the S&P 500 and further raises the probabilities of the bear market low being set in October," Turnquist said in a post.

IMPROVING INTERNALS

Willie Delwiche, an investment strategist at All Star Charts, said all five indicators on his bull market checklist were fulfilled in January, including upside volume and risk appetite metrics, something that did not occur once in 2022.

One of those indicators showed more stocks on the New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq making new 52-week highs than lows -- -- a sign that the rally is being led by a broad range of stocks, rather than a cluster of heavyweights.

[pdx5]

An up January after a down year, however, was followed by a gain of 23.1% from February to December with a 92% success rate. Last year saw the S&P 500 lose 19.4% in its biggest annual percentage drop since 2008.

[12SPX]

Whew d finally posted, didn't want to start my own thread lol!!  Still hanging onto to my long from 4095 but getting nervous as so many bears are flipping over here.  Calls are remaining pricey but some aren't to bad so I would expect mostly grinding as everyone will also be wondering what the inflation report will be like tomorrow.  All of this is reminding me of 1987 when the biggest concentration was on the trade deficit.  Inflation is a bit more important but after dealing with it over a year I think it is going to get old sometime soon.... We also have to contend with expiration this Friday with the market pressing my upper cycle numbers around 4200 and I came up with a weekly number around 4220 once again which are both still pricey.  Nonetheless should be another fun week of trading.  Heading down south to Orange beach on Wednesday so my day trading is going to be much less likely after today, we'll see!! 

[12SPX]

There we go profit stop 4096