474 replies to this topic

[dTraderB]

My FF for CPI: initially market drops then rally to test ES 4210.
FROM THERE a possible new daily swing high at 4250 and then the next leg down. Second half of FEBRUARY should be BEARISH.

[dTraderB]

"MOST INFORMED FED journalist" appears to be signaling HIGHER THAN DECEMBER:

Nick Timiraos (@NickTimiraos) tweeted at 7:00 PM on Mon, Feb 13, 2023:
For any US CPI nerds out there, now is probably as good a time as any to peruse this 2019 Fed paper on "residual seasonality"

The gist: core inflation has generally come in higher in the first half of the year than the second half of the year https://t.co/cdZLzsYjur

[dTraderB]

Strong Rally off higher swing LOW, BUT STILL BELOW ZERO

https://www.mcoscill...t_breadth_data/

[skott]

Whew d finally posted, didn't want to start my own thread lol!!  Still hanging onto to my long from 4095 but getting nervous as so many bears are flipping over here.  Calls are remaining pricey but some aren't to bad so I would expect mostly grinding as everyone will also be wondering what the inflation report will be like tomorrow.  All of this is reminding me of 1987 when the biggest concentration was on the trade deficit.  Inflation is a bit more important but after dealing with it over a year I think it is going to get old sometime soon.... We also have to contend with expiration this Friday with the market pressing my upper cycle numbers around 4200 and I came up with a weekly number around 4220 once again which are both still pricey.  Nonetheless should be another fun week of trading.  Heading down south to Orange beach on Wednesday so my day trading is going to be much less likely after today, we'll see!! 

 

 

Orange beach, Alabama? 

[dTraderB]

Note this.... from an "INFORMED WSJ REPORTER"
Nick Timiraos (@NickTimiraos) tweeted at 7:45 AM on Tue, Feb 14, 2023:
Economists at Goldman estimate the CPI rose 0.55% in January, which would bring the YoY rate to 6.4% (from 6.5% in Dec), and that the core CPI rose 0.49%, which would drop the YoY rate to 5.6% (from 5.7%)

UBS forecasts the CPI up 0.4% (+6.25% YoY) and core CPI up 0.31% (+5.5%)

[pdx5]

Consumers keep spending.
Worker shortage persists.
Bulls will win in 2023 with lot of grind.

[dTraderB]

BUYING a big dip BY CLOSING AT LEAST ONE EACH ES & NQ HEDGE SHORT
Closing some LONGS ON BIG RALLY

[12SPX]

Surprised the market is up here going into the report actually but helped to bring my average short to 4142.  Likely see some wild swings for at least the first half hour till bonds decide where they are gonna go.  Calls are right back to their extreme levels once again which is interesting so gonna be a fun day lol!! 

[12SPX]

Down then up, average short now 4150 and straight back to the grind lol!! 

[K Wave]

Looks like 153 the number for Apple now that "news" is out...