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Posted 21 February 2023 - 12:48 PM
I called this drop in thread below - sentiment has now turned down from that insane peak I went over.
but technically 3950-3975 looks high odds - then this gets difficult.
https://www.traders-...-bearish-to-me/
I have been pretty busy but will look to update model/signal today or tomorrow now approaching those targets.
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Posted 21 February 2023 - 12:58 PM
Mind reader! LOL!
3950-3975 looks high odds (Green long uptrend-line)
Mid-December looks similar i.e. small bounce back to near the red downtrend line, then failure. Or....
Edited by Rogerdodger, 21 February 2023 - 01:13 PM.
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Posted 21 February 2023 - 01:48 PM
Today into tomorrow shd be strongest part of swing down on my road map - that 'shd' help me give a more precise target for Swing low - but ideally 3950-3975 but
it could lower odds extended down to 3900.
Edited by EntropyModel, 21 February 2023 - 01:49 PM.
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Posted 21 February 2023 - 10:46 PM
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Posted 22 February 2023 - 10:52 AM
hit 3985 this AM so into the top end of target zone for bounces to begin, but I expect us to work lower to 3950 over next week as per video post above.
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Posted 22 February 2023 - 11:27 AM
yikes WAY too much bullishness right here for a simple backtest.
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Posted 22 February 2023 - 06:09 PM
3975 ... we're in that zone now where bounces are expected ... but, I see little change and looks increasingly to me we'll test the lower bound of the decision zone ..so, toward
3950 and door opening a bit to a break through it if sentiment doesn't change.
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Posted 23 February 2023 - 12:43 PM
I don't see a Swing low YET - I don't even see a short term low today...but I do expect a bounce in the 3950-3960 area as said - THEN that will be big tell.
I can also tell that retail is just about 100% long, zero short and not budging! not just from data but also response to this call I made for blow off runup then this drop - not popular to say the least :-)
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Posted 23 February 2023 - 02:17 PM
yuck - horrible place to bounce here today...just what I did NOT want to see...If we can't get setup for a swing'ish low by close tomorrow then I am concerned about
a bigger drop ..one step at time
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Posted 23 February 2023 - 02:43 PM
yuck - horrible place to bounce here today...just what I did NOT want to see...If we can't get setup for a swing'ish low by close tomorrow then I am concerned about
a bigger drop ..one step at time
I shd explain -
it comes off the right price zone 3950-3970 - check....but its just 'wrong' place on ST model in LQ, VIX etc
This looks this 'slope of hope' to me ...which is bad, because u need as said 'fear' to form a Swing low in this Key 3950-3970 area.
