225 replies to this topic

[K Wave]

Thanks for posting all those charts kwave. I think the market has many opposing forces right now causing a tug of war. 

Chances are no serious moves up or down, only better chance is of a grind with downward bias.

I see the potential for a break to the downside that surprises folks.

 

But am looking for certain things to trigger that possibility....we are real close to that trigger being pulled, but it might not get pulled.

 

More sideways still an option, but usually when things get to this point in the chart patterns, decisions are made.

 

Ready for up, down OR sideways depending on magnitude of moves out of this area.

 

And we may not have to wait much longer for clues with Super wound up Mega Cap BRK reporting over the weekend...

Edited by K Wave, 26 February 2023 - 03:50 PM.

[12SPX]

Totally with you d, as I've been saying for awhile, I think in the end the Fed is going to pause on increasing especially if you follow the 10-year.  It's just not going up anymore....

[pdx5]

Totally with you d, as I've been saying for awhile, I think in the end the Fed is going to pause on increasing especially if you follow the 10-year.  It's just not going up anymore....

I still remember when FED rates were arount 1%, you had said here that FED can not increase rates because it will trigger a depression.

Well here we are now at around 5% rates. Still no recession, but it is coming. I saw comments from FED members saying they will not stop raising rates until core infaltion hits their 2% target. Wonder why many still should doubt them!

[dTraderB]

ES 3992 HEDGE SHORT

[dTraderB]

One higher inflation data point cannot panic the FED into abandoning this phase of their plan. Maybe if there are a few higher inflation then it is possible.

Totally with you d, as I've been saying for awhile, I think in the end the Fed is going to pause on increasing especially if you follow the 10-year.  It's just not going up anymore....

[dTraderB]

Key developments that should provide more direction to U.S. markets later on Monday:
U.S. Jan durable goods orders, Jan pending home sales, Feb Dallas Fed manufacturing survey.
Federal Reserve Board Governor Philip Jefferson. European Central Bank board member Philip Lane
U.S. corp earnings: Target, Occidental Petroleum

[dTraderB]

https://stockcharts....ow-the-263.html

[dTraderB]

" will notice that we are now testing the bottom of the rising trend channel from October and failed at the June high resistance. Such sets up the market for a continued churn as the bulls and bears struggle for control."

Recession Countdown, Recession Countdown Begins As Yield Curves Trough
As noted below in both the Relative Performance Analysis and Risk Range Report sections, the market is oversold enough on a short-term basis to bounce.

https://realinvestme...-curves-trough/

[dTraderB]

NQ HEDGE SHORT 13135

WILL hold these 2 hedge shorts and all LONGS
Until at least 11am
Will add SPY & QQQ CALLS ON ANY PULLBACK

NEW UVXY PUT POSITION

ES 3992 HEDGE SHORT

[dTraderB]

Rentals, homes, and fuel Futures falling...

"Apartment rents fell in every major metropolitan area in the U.S. over the past six months through January.

Renters with new leases paid a median rent that was 3.5% lower than they would have paid last August"