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QQQ 290 here again. This will probably be the real fail.


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#1 skott

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Posted 10 March 2023 - 01:24 PM

I've not wavered on my bear market analysis. I posted all the whys. I came up with the 290 number back in December. I don't even remember why or how but I have the line drawn on my chart going back to when I started shorting on that spike up Dec 13th. I had the orders in before that day. It just so happens to coincide with Kwave's 200 crossing below the 900 MA. Today that 200 is at 290.09. Time will tell. I sit short.

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#2 skott

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Posted 10 March 2023 - 02:22 PM

the nasdaq composite is now clearly and convincing in the long term bear crossover. plot a 200 vs the 900. 200 crossing below the 900 along with price going below them signals it is ON.  QQQ has done this also.



#3 skott

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Posted 10 March 2023 - 02:23 PM

I haven't watched this so no comment on expertise or veracity of their statements. 

 

https://marketsanity...horribly-wrong/



#4 skott

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Posted 10 March 2023 - 02:39 PM

I mentioned the 288.26 level for QQQ.  It is support that held before. Pretty important but you can say that about many levels. 

 

Just think amatuers can sell all their holdings, no commission in most cases with the click of one button. you'll see alot of people do that in the not to distant future or maybe it will wait until 2024/25



#5 EntropyModel

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Posted 10 March 2023 - 02:50 PM

I've not wavered on my bear market analysis. I posted all the whys. I came up with the 290 number back in December. I don't even remember why or how but I have the line drawn on my chart going back to when I started shorting on that spike up Dec 13th. I had the orders in before that day. It just so happens to coincide with Kwave's 200 crossing below the 900 MA. Today that 200 is at 290.09. Time will tell. I sit short.

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Yep Skott your one of the few here who were consistently bearish with your analysis... half the posters here flip-flop on daily basis, and the other half are bullish most of the time so its a lonely place to be LOL

 

Most of my posts saying it was still bear market get sarcastic comments about how 'easy' it is to call that, yet, they are all bullish ..hmm.


Question everything, especially what you believe you know. The foundation of science is questioning the data, not trusting the data. I only trust fully falsified, non vested interest 'data', which is extremely rare in our world of paid framing narratives 'psy ops'. Market Comments https://markdavidson.substack.com/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLznkbTx_dpw_-Y9bBN3QR-tiNSsFsSojB

#6 skott

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Posted 10 March 2023 - 03:00 PM

 

I've not wavered on my bear market analysis. I posted all the whys. I came up with the 290 number back in December. I don't even remember why or how but I have the line drawn on my chart going back to when I started shorting on that spike up Dec 13th. I had the orders in before that day. It just so happens to coincide with Kwave's 200 crossing below the 900 MA. Today that 200 is at 290.09. Time will tell. I sit short.

.

 

Yep Skott your one of the few here who were consistently bearish with your analysis... half the posters here flip-flop on daily basis, and the other half are bullish most of the time so its a lonely place to be LOL

 

Most of my posts saying it was still bear market get sarcastic comments about how 'easy' it is to call that, yet, they are all bullish ..hmm.

 

 

Haha, so easy to call after the fact!  I notice the bulls move their goalposts or get quiet altogether. Oh well. gotta go to work. last day of a long, first full week since my return to work.



#7 steadyquest

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Posted 10 March 2023 - 04:54 PM

Overlooking the banking crisis designed to put the small players out of business, this decline could turn out to be just another bear trap based on relatively short term technicals.

 

indu.png

 

iwm.png

 

The generals don't yet appear to be overly involved, and without their fervent participation this potential resurgence of the bear is suspect.

 

fang.png



#8 EntropyModel

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Posted 10 March 2023 - 05:43 PM

Overlooking the banking crisis designed to put the small players out of business, this decline could turn out to be just another bear trap based on relatively short term technicals.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Well, its already a bull trap because retail were frothing bullish on the 'breakout' @4200 SPX and are still long, and not shorted as I point out - so whatever happens, that already did.

On this board alone I lost count of the 'its a new bull market' proclamations during  that period.

 

But, it's unlikely to be a bear trap until there are actually some bears, well shorts in the data, at least if you are talking Swing/IT.

The point of which Price confirms is the POR - point of recnognition .. everyone will short again THEN we get your bear trap.


Edited by EntropyModel, 10 March 2023 - 05:47 PM.

Question everything, especially what you believe you know. The foundation of science is questioning the data, not trusting the data. I only trust fully falsified, non vested interest 'data', which is extremely rare in our world of paid framing narratives 'psy ops'. Market Comments https://markdavidson.substack.com/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLznkbTx_dpw_-Y9bBN3QR-tiNSsFsSojB

#9 steadyquest

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Posted 10 March 2023 - 06:23 PM

"...retail were frothing bullish on the 'breakout' @4200 SPX and are still long."  Well, there you go - that's the thorn in the bear's side.  If the fangs rally next week and retail never sold then who got trapped?  Not wanting to argue - and not making any prediction - just saying if the fangs don't crash below that declining support, then the industrials and small caps could (potentially) resume their rally after the technical pullback has bottomed.  



#10 EntropyModel

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Posted 10 March 2023 - 06:41 PM

"...retail were frothing bullish on the 'breakout' @4200 SPX and are still long."  Well, there you go - that's the thorn in the bear's side.  If the fangs rally next week and retail never sold then who got trapped?  Not wanting to argue - and not making any prediction - just saying if the fangs don't crash below that declining support, then the industrials and small caps could (potentially) resume their rally after the technical pullback has bottomed.  

 

I actually appreciate you stating your case and with analysis -  as an echo chamber is no use and its only through seeing difference i/we can learn.

 

You make a valid point - retail haven't sold ...so they can still 'pull out the win'  IF this is as you say a technical pullback, however, consider

 - alot of new retail money came in on the 'breakout' - I commented here extensively at the time, I said before that FED meeting I snese a blow off up move that wd reverse ..and sentiment would go euphoric - it did just that.

THAT mean - a ton of retail longs is infact down nearly 10% from that breakout area (using SPX - wd depend obviously) - but severely under water for most timeframes of trading - except maybe long term hold.

 

 - That I believe longs are only half the equation - its also SHORTS - and I track that closely and as i've said shorting is incredibly low relative to a 10% drop ... that means there isn't the 'fuel' to be lit that usually kicks of big up moves.

 

 - That I believe you need Pension/big money support for bull markets - something else I track very closely, and I am not seeing it ..haven't since early 2022 ...and definitely not since 'the breakout' ....you could argue its waiting for

a completed pullback but in my experience its the opposite, this money tends to EARLY not 'chasing' - as retail tend to be the late ones ..yet here we are saying they as 'smart and early' for your 'pullback' to work out. 

 

There main reason though is I followed my model - and I see nothing since October as I said endlessly to support idea this isn't a just a bear market bounce - a great one, but done now.

 

I could be wrong - I just follow the model/TA and setups - and it reamins bearish since 4200 - but I do lean there will still be 'one last swing up' probably around 3750-3780 ..that will likely be convincing of successful

retest ...and give retail more 'slope of hope'  as this bear market is extremely nasty due to ALGO's using alot of our TA against us, long discussion ...but that is why I don't rely on price patterns alone.


Question everything, especially what you believe you know. The foundation of science is questioning the data, not trusting the data. I only trust fully falsified, non vested interest 'data', which is extremely rare in our world of paid framing narratives 'psy ops'. Market Comments https://markdavidson.substack.com/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLznkbTx_dpw_-Y9bBN3QR-tiNSsFsSojB