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K Wave's Final Warning


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#1 K Wave

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Posted 12 March 2023 - 12:09 PM

Due to the super important nature of where markets are now, I thought I would take a break from my board sabbatical and publish one last set of HUGE clues to look for going forward. Then it is back to the garden.

 

While others have been watching buy signal after buy signal get "busted", which "should" be telling them something (some are slow learners), I have been detailing step by step for some time how this was all going to unfold.

Will not go into the details, save for a few examples today, but suffice it to say that while others hope to make 30% over 18 months or so, I "bet the farm" levered short in a variety of stocks on the day Tesla busted 204, as I said I would. (signal actually came at 205)...and I made 30% on the portfolio last WEEK...and there is likely a lot more coming.

 

What I want to point out today, is that you really only need to watch 2 more stocks now, as most of the others have now broken, as expected, some in dramatic fashion, out of the "rolling over 4 hour charts" that I have been harping on ad infinitum. If you do not have multi-timeframe wave analysis in your tool box, you are doing yourself a great disservice.

 

So the two stocks are now JPM and AAPL

 

I currently believe Apple gave the equivalent Sell, Mortimer, Sell signal that Tesla did at 205, on the breach 152 last week. But it is a breach of 143 now that will kill it dead, as ITS 4 hour chart rolls over.

 

 

 

Let me use a little analogy. The market has been getting more and more drug addicted over the last 40 years, and it finally went to full on mainlining Heroin during Covid.

Now, not only has the drip been money drip taken away, but now we have the biggest, fastest rate increases in history.

How could there NOT be terrible withdrawal symptoms? This is not Rocket Science by any stretch of the imagination.

 

And Commercial Real Estate is just STARTING to crash. Maybe next time, when you see a huge Island In The Sky (pointed out Real Time as it happened), you will actually know what to do, eh?

 

 

and look at, you guessed it, the 4 hour

 

 

JPM

 

On JPM, and the reason I took big profits on Friday morning (pending outcome of Powers That Be moves over the weekend), was that it hit the first really big and SUPER IMPORTANT support level in the SVB panic, while the others BAC WFC, and especially #6 largest bank PNC, not looking so hot.

So, below is a series of charts that that shows where JPM is on multiple time frame analysis.

 

First, we had a simultaneous break of the 5,15,30 min time frames coincident with a 4 hour rollover....if this is not a huge red flag, then red flags do not exist.

 

5 - now trending down

 

 

15 - roll just getting underway.

 

 

30 - 200 coming hard over the top, after what looks like important breach of support

 

 

and 4 hour- bulls huffed and they puffed, and then they huffed and puffed some more..but importantly COULD NOT GIT ER DUN.

 

 

AND....since I ALWAYS have a Plan B...bulls do have ONE LAST SHOT at saving things, and it requires that Friday's low on JPM is not broken, because as you can see on the hourly and daily below, we go full on Synchronous Cyclicity downside if it does get broken. And if it breaks, there is NO TELLING how bad it could get, but it could be really really bad. BAD things happen below the 900...

 

So, if the largest bank in the country, JPM does not have a STELLAR rally out of the Friday hole that clears 140, buckle up. My best guess at this point is that the hourly and daily pivots below WILL fail, but if they do not, and pretty soon, then the wheels maybe do not completely come off yet.

 

Hourly...last chance saloon for bull most likely.

 

 

Daily...Massive air gap in weekly chart if Daily fails.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


The strength of Government lies in the people's ignorance, and the Government knows this, and will therefore always oppose true enlightenment. - Leo Tolstoy

 

 


#2 Rogerdodger

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Posted 12 March 2023 - 12:21 PM

Thanks for the post and scary charts.

 

Now "back to the garden" sounds a  bit like Rome's greatest Emperor/farmer ever:  Lucius Quinctius Cincinnatus.

 

Cincinnatus was appointed dictator of Rome in order to rescue a consular army that was surrounded by the Aequi on Mount Algidus. At the time of his appointment he was working a small farm. He is said to have defeated the enemy in a single day and celebrated a triumph in Rome. Cincinnatus maintained his authority only long enough to bring Rome through the emergency. He then resigned and returned to his farm.


#3 K Wave

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Posted 12 March 2023 - 12:24 PM

A smattering of the "4 hour charts" that actually drive the indexes that I gave heads up on right near the turns...

 

 

360 GS being the biggest most important of the bunch...

 

GS

 

 

WMT

 

 

HD

 

AWK - Utes lead at this stage....that one was EASY money after triple too at huge resistance

 

 

CAT has not busted 4 hour yet...but that is ugly lookin'

 

 

And its brother definitely has the Deere in the headlights look to it, just before it gets smashed from ridiculous heights, after the huge long term double top.

 

 

UNH could very easily go full crash mode at any time now...

 

 

And if you want to short some that are likely to be just beginning epic plunges from near the high, look no further than AZO and ORLY, as canary Advance Auto continues to get decimated.

 

 

OH..and I almost for BRK.....better affix chin straps under 300...

Hourly looks like classic last gasp fakeout, and a whole slew of longer time frames line up at 300...

 

60 min

 

 

4 hour

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


Edited by K Wave, 12 March 2023 - 12:27 PM.

The strength of Government lies in the people's ignorance, and the Government knows this, and will therefore always oppose true enlightenment. - Leo Tolstoy

 

 


#4 K Wave

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Posted 12 March 2023 - 12:34 PM

And here is the Dow Cash 4 hour...

As I kept saying over and over...33600 huge if broken.

Then we we got one last bounce that stopped where? 33600.

 

Now not looking so bueno...

 

But seriously, I think folks have a very rare opportunity top make small (or large) fortunes shorting individual stocks, rather trading the indexes, so that is where I am focusing my trading now.

Am so glad we are finally out of the chop, and do not have to focus on flipping trades every few hours.

 


Edited by K Wave, 12 March 2023 - 12:35 PM.

The strength of Government lies in the people's ignorance, and the Government knows this, and will therefore always oppose true enlightenment. - Leo Tolstoy

 

 


#5 K Wave

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Posted 12 March 2023 - 12:40 PM

And on daily Dow, what did I say was one of the MOST DANGEROUS events when it came to the 200 trying to turn just above the 900?

Anyone remember? Yeah, Failure to do so.

 

Well, we are now on the verge of it...

 

My best guess at this juncture??

A move down to the 900, and perhaps a multi-day battle there, that Bears eventually win, and then Sayonara for a few years.

Unless of course, we actually get a bank run crash....

 


The strength of Government lies in the people's ignorance, and the Government knows this, and will therefore always oppose true enlightenment. - Leo Tolstoy

 

 


#6 K Wave

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Posted 12 March 2023 - 12:45 PM

And here is Naz Comp...STILL looking so very similar to mid 1930.

 

As I responded to IYB on his thread, Naz needed fist to establish price below the 900, and then needed to breach the 200. One step at a time...

Check...and Check.

 

If it now goes below that Yellow line, LT bear almost assured.

 

Ye have been warned...see how things play out next week.

 

 

Weekly support a Looooong way down....

 


Edited by K Wave, 12 March 2023 - 12:45 PM.

The strength of Government lies in the people's ignorance, and the Government knows this, and will therefore always oppose true enlightenment. - Leo Tolstoy

 

 


#7 skott

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Posted 12 March 2023 - 01:31 PM

I didnt realize SVB is the 18th largest bank in the usa



#8 K Wave

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Posted 12 March 2023 - 02:47 PM

I didnt realize SVB is the 18th largest bank in the usa

The truly scary part is the Texas ratio and other metrics did not look that bad at all, and yet it it completely melted down in a few days.

 

Scrambling to try and figure out which metric matters most as far as safety now. Do not really want to hold millions in my sock drawer! unsure.png

 

And there may not really be any, it may be totally up to whims of the mob in this environment. See if the PTB can calm things down...or not...

 

This guy attempts a postmortem on SIVB. Essentially not enough equity to cover the mark to market write down on the Available For Sale portion of its portfolio.

And...they were complete morons and could not see the 40 year cycle turn coming and loaded up on treasuries at the top. They likely would have been OK if they had only gone out a few years, but the idiots went out as far as 16 years!

 

Problem is, this moronic behavior was NOT unique to SIVB.

 

https://seekingalpha...mortem-analysis

This works if you are not a subscriber

https://www.removepaywall.com/

 

And IF JPM does break Friday's low, no telling how fast things could escalate....uncharted waters here it seems.

 

Like Peter Thiel, I will certainly be be one of the early "bank runners" if things start to break on the bigger banks.

 

Schwab "seems" like it might be safer than some other options. They did not need to be bailed out in 2008, as they run a pretty good ship over there.

https://www.marketwa...reasury-bailout

 

Pay special attention to PNC over coming days. If the number 6 starts to melt down, then Houston, we have a problem.

ROKU has a 487 million dollar problem already.

 

 

Anyway...interesting times..........


The strength of Government lies in the people's ignorance, and the Government knows this, and will therefore always oppose true enlightenment. - Leo Tolstoy

 

 


#9 skott

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Posted 12 March 2023 - 05:01 PM

Schwab insiders have  been selling. How about fidelity?



#10 slupert

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Posted 12 March 2023 - 05:19 PM

 

Thanks for the post and scary charts.

 

Now "back to the garden" sounds a  bit like Rome's greatest Emperor/farmer ever:  Lucius Quinctius Cincinnatus.

 

Cincinnatus was appointed dictator of Rome in order to rescue a consular army that was surrounded by the Aequi on Mount Algidus. At the time of his appointment he was working a small farm. He is said to have defeated the enemy in a single day and celebrated a triumph in Rome. Cincinnatus maintained his authority only long enough to bring Rome through the emergency. He then resigned and returned to his farm.

Nothing but bears out there, you know what happens next.