Member
Posted 23 March 2023 - 10:54 AM
The Fed sees asset prices still high so the inflation, not enough "pains" yet ............................
SPX may need to go down to 3500 before the Fed to stop hiking, and it's entirely possible that the Fed may do an overshot ........................
Member
Posted 23 March 2023 - 12:38 PM
if I can find the chart I will post it. I def don't have time to hunt it down now but as I said before, when the Fed cuts rates the market will crash. That is what happens in bear markets. You might be able to find it yourself but you'd have to look up when cuts were made during previous bear markets. Imagine if inflation is running at 6% and the fed cuts rates. Maybe they will take the route of the big lie and say inflation has fallen and cut rates or they will do it because of financial disasters occurring. Will that inspire confidence in anyone?
This is one of those "cart before the horse" or "horse before the cart" kind of scenarios, In actuality, and as the chart I posted earlier in this thread shows so eloquently, interest rates move lower when the market has already priced in a contracting economy (like now) and stocks are already declining (like now) and the FED then tries to play catch up to this same dynamic as they realize that they tightened too much (asleep behind the wheel) in their effort to either reduce or eliminate future inflationary tendencies.
Even the Market Watch headline says "the Fed pivot is near...".
As of earlier this morning, the FedWatch tool is showing that bond traders are currently at 65% "no change" and 35% a 1/4% hike for the May meeting. Yesterday it was 50/50. What is interesting, though, is that these same traders are now pricing in a 1/4% cut with the July meeting and gaining favor for another 1/4% decrease in September. Of course, this could all change depending on future fundamental data, but it what it is right now...this tool has been spot on for several years now.
In the fullness of time.
Fib
Better to ignore me than abhor me.
“Wise men don't need advice. Fools won't take it” - Benjamin Franklin
"Beware of false knowledge; it is more dangerous than ignorance" - George Bernard Shaw
Demagogue: A leader who makes use of popular prejudices, false claims and promises in order to gain power.
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lasergirl
Posted 23 March 2023 - 01:01 PM
if I can find the chart I will post it. I def don't have time to hunt it down now but as I said before, when the Fed cuts rates the market will crash. That is what happens in bear markets. You might be able to find it yourself but you'd have to look up when cuts were made during previous bear markets. Imagine if inflation is running at 6% and the fed cuts rates. Maybe they will take the route of the big lie and say inflation has fallen and cut rates or they will do it because of financial disasters occurring. Will that inspire confidence in anyone?
This is one of those "cart before the horse" or "horse before the cart" kind of scenarios, In actuality, and as the chart I posted earlier in this thread shows so eloquently, interest rates move lower when the market has already priced in a contracting economy (like now) and stocks are already declining (like now) and the FED then tries to play catch up to this same dynamic as they realize that they tightened too much (asleep behind the wheel) in their effort to either reduce or eliminate future inflationary tendencies.
Even the Market Watch headline says "the Fed pivot is near...".
As of earlier this morning, the FedWatch tool is showing that bond traders are currently at 65% "no change" and 35% a 1/4% hike for the May meeting. Yesterday it was 50/50. What is interesting, though, is that these same traders are now pricing in a 1/4% cut with the July meeting and gaining favor for another 1/4% decrease in September. Of course, this could all change depending on future fundamental data, but it what it is right now...this tool has been spot on for several years now.
In the fullness of time.
Fib
Very good points here. It seems the Fed has decided to dole out the medicine in smaller doses over a longer period, to avoid shocking the patient.
Meanwhile, banks and REITs continue to plumb new lows.
Member
Posted 23 March 2023 - 02:45 PM
Wait for the 50/200 EMA cross and the MACD cross for confirmation.
https://stockcharts....835&a=264692101
Member
Posted 23 March 2023 - 03:03 PM
Member
Posted 23 March 2023 - 10:58 PM
You need to update that chart
A full 120 now..among the worst ever, save the craziness in early '80s
The strength of Government lies in the people's ignorance, and the Government knows this, and will therefore always oppose true enlightenment. - Leo Tolstoy
Member
Posted 23 March 2023 - 11:15 PM
You need to update that chart
A full 120 now..among the worst ever, save the craziness in early '80s
It has always been a quirk with StockCharts...they run about a month behind in updating the daily and weekly. The monthly is through February 28th. The next update is at the end of the month and it will only be through March 1st. In the meantime, If you, or anyone else, can provide a more timely chart to show, I sure would appreciate it.
Fib
Better to ignore me than abhor me.
“Wise men don't need advice. Fools won't take it” - Benjamin Franklin
"Beware of false knowledge; it is more dangerous than ignorance" - George Bernard Shaw
Demagogue: A leader who makes use of popular prejudices, false claims and promises in order to gain power.
Technical Watch Subscriptions
Member
Posted 24 March 2023 - 08:30 AM
You need to update that chart
A full 120 now..among the worst ever, save the craziness in early '80s
It has always been a quirk with StockCharts...they run about a month behind in updating the daily and weekly. The monthly is through February 28th. The next update is at the end of the month and it will only be through March 1st. In the meantime, If you, or anyone else, can provide a more timely chart to show, I sure would appreciate it.
Fib
Actually just noticed that chart is not the target rate which I was using 5% for.
Effective is lower.
But as of this morning, now 140 under the 5% at 3.6%, and about 100 under the effective, which theoretically should now start to rise from 4.58.
In any event, it's gettin' ugly....
The strength of Government lies in the people's ignorance, and the Government knows this, and will therefore always oppose true enlightenment. - Leo Tolstoy
Member
Posted 24 March 2023 - 10:23 AM
Hey Guys. At the moment given GDP growth and pent up demand I currently don't see this bear market happening. As far as the Fed, I read the signals are .5% raises have changed from 0% to .25% increases at meetings with no sign of lowering at the moment. I think lower oil prices staying below $70 a barrel will put a lid on inflation on consumer products. I see these things as positive.
Member
Posted 24 March 2023 - 12:20 PM
Hey Guys. At the moment given GDP growth and pent up demand I currently don't see this bear market happening. As far as the Fed, I read the signals are .5% raises have changed from 0% to .25% increases at meetings with no sign of lowering at the moment. I think lower oil prices staying below $70 a barrel will put a lid on inflation on consumer products. I see these things as positive.
I'm seeing alot of bearish sentiment. Futures traders are getting very close to an extreme. I don't know if we'll get another stronger move down next week but I am definitely open to the market turning up by the first week of April. This could be like 2007 where the market made new highs on bad new before it crashed. The timing is always difficult of course. does it turn next week or at the end of may and then a very big summer rally?
