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Risk Windows for the Week of May 1st & Five Guys Sticker Shock


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#1 Douglas

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Posted 30 April 2023 - 12:49 AM

According to my risk summation system, the days this coming week with the highest risk of seeing a turn in or acceleration of the current trend in the DJIA are Monday May 1st and a fuzzy window stretched slightly from Wednesday May 3rd to the morning of Thursday May 4th.

 

Last week the "smeared" risk window from late Wednesday through to early Friday morning caught what appears to be a nice low with a gap up.

btPQ1P8.jpg

 

Lately if you're buying a basket of stocks, big is better as can seen in the DJIA and Russell 2000 ETF plots below.  This is not healthy.  Resynchronization is coming, and it will probably be painful.

 

Mz7KkrE.jpg

 

The focus of the triangle in the DJIA closing price that I've been droning on about for a while did tag a turn as I predicted, but it was short-lived, cut off in its infancy by the big rally late last week.  Still, the pattern worked.

 

oUvjVQD.jpg

 

The high cost of low living is starting to get to me.  Living in the fish-n-chips UK, I occasionally get homesick for a US style burger and fries, so yesterday my better half and I went to Five Guys in Bath.  The burger satiated my craving, but I'm still trying to get over the sticker shock.  Two of their single patty burgers, two sodas and a large French fry to share set me back the equivalent of almost $40.00, for two cotton picking hamburgers!   I know some poor cow had to die to make me happy, but forty bucks, that's ridiculous, and this is with a currently good (for US income me that is) UK exchange rate of about 1.25 $/£.  Powell this Wednesday may say that inflation is contained but my dining experience says otherwise.

 

Speaking of the Fed, apparently this Wednesday is their last hurrah for interest rate increases.  One more little one and done and dusted.   My EWave count that I posted this past week expects the stock market to continue to move northward to finish a "B" wave this summer when I think the coming recession will begin to weigh on the market possibly giving this interventionist Fed the excuse to start cutting rates.  Guess what that's going to do to the Five Guys hamburger price.  

 

Regards,

Douglas

 



#2 Rogerdodger

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Posted 30 April 2023 - 10:00 PM

I was reading to my wife your post ...she  guessed $40 for two Five Guys!

 

But "Who doesn't like Chips and Sausage?"  asked Joss Stone as the Masked Singer.

"we should all just dress up in chips and sausage and do a sing-song!"

I Just love her! Front row in K.C.

 

https://youtu.be/HFnybLT5y9E?t=3266

Joss.jpg


Edited by Rogerdodger, 30 April 2023 - 11:42 PM.


#3 Douglas

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Posted 01 May 2023 - 11:42 AM

Rodgerdodger, is it that expensive in the States too?  I haven't been back home in Texas since just before covid, so I'm a bit out of touch.  I can still remember buying a burger, fries and a small Coke at the Golden Arches in the '60's for less than fifty cents, including tax.  Of course the Five Guys burgers are better than those burgers, but not 80 times better.   I was making $1.25 an hour back then digging ditches, but that would buy an ounce and a quarter of coin silver currently worth about $31.  I suspect that's one heck of a lot more than green as a gourd kid ditch diggers make these days. 

 

Regards,

Douglas