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The Highly Successful Ostrich Investing Strategy Meets Chicken Little


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#1 Douglas

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Posted 09 May 2023 - 12:42 AM

Ever since the 666 low in 2009 ignoring the bad news and just staying invested has been the right move, just like an ostrich, bury your head in the sand.  The central bank has had your back mainlining you ZIRP financial heroin to make the painful truth vaporize into a drug induced easy ether.  

 

I liken this period to the response that someone who jumps out of the top window in a tall building gives to a person peering out of a mid-building window querying him on how its going with "fine so far".  In that long journey down, it's only the last inch that matters.  So it will be with the crazy funny money juiced-up economy.  Unlike our misbegotten friend who jumps out of a building window, there is no way of knowing how many floors the economic building has, it's cloudy on the way down.  You'll only know your fate when you high speed kiss the pavement. 

 

The Congressional debt ceiling fearsome foursome meet today in DC with Joe to play a little game of economic chicken.  The key to playing chicken is that someone's got to blink.  If all eyes stay wide open, it's a head-on collision with all the mangling that this entails.  Of course, the ostrich strategy would say just ignore this DC kabuki theater keeping long through thick and thin like our gravity lead friend happily passing floor after floor in blissful ignorance. 

 

Given the caliber of the characters meeting today to decide our economic fate, the Chicken Little in me is whispering that the sky is falling and this gathering might just be the first gust of an ill wind that parts those clouds and gives us an economic floor count to that last inch.  Of course, for more than a decade now that big bad ostrich bird has been kicking the crap out of Chicken Little, so odds are today probably will be no exception.  

 

Regards,

Douglas


Edited by Douglas, 09 May 2023 - 12:48 AM.


#2 pdx5

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    I want return OF my money more than return ON my money

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Posted 09 May 2023 - 11:21 AM

Spending other people's money, is more addictive than heroin.
The Congress critters can never be cured of that addiction. Cutting spending gives them horrible withdrawal pain.
"Money cannot consistently be made trading every day or every week during the year." ~ Jesse Livermore Trading Rule

#3 Douglas

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Posted 09 May 2023 - 12:56 PM

pdx5, it's not heroin, it's OPIM, other people's investing money, that's the ticket.  The 2 and 20 fee structure for that has made many a money manger's yacht and/or Ferrari payments.   

 

The Congress is always running for re-election and spending money on donors and backers is one sure fire way to garner support.  The system is simply flawed.  The math of the spending versus the income just doesn't add up. It's going to fail, it's just a matter of when, but when it does, it will do it in a hurry.  Like Ernest Hemmingway's character Mike Campbell said in The Sun Also Rises when he was asked how he went bankrupt, "Two ways, gradually and then suddenly."

 

Regards,

Douglas


Edited by Douglas, 09 May 2023 - 12:56 PM.


#4 Rogerdodger

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Posted 09 May 2023 - 06:47 PM

"Mike Campbell said in The Sun Also Rises when he was asked how he went bankrupt, '"Two ways, gradually and then suddenly.""

Quoting Hemmingway now? I love it!

Truth is timeless, even if it seems delayed.

 

As the old joke goes..."How did I windup with $1 million in the Market?  I started with $2 million!"

Groucho Marx lost his arse in the 1930's crash

Will Rogers refused to get in the 1920's market bubble and bought boring land on California's West coast.

 

Rogers said: "Our whole Depression was brought on by gambling, not in the stock market alone but in expanding and borrowing and going in debt... all just to make some easy money quick."

 

My buddy since our days in Will Roger's High school was way into the $65,000 bit-con crypto market.

I haven't heard from him in a while...since the mid $25,000's.

 

Watch the sky.


Edited by Rogerdodger, 09 May 2023 - 06:49 PM.


#5 Douglas

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Posted 10 May 2023 - 05:16 AM

Rodgerdodger, I'll even go further back and quote Solomon, "There's nothing new under the sun."  The current banking crisis, like the one before, was caused by the Fed.  The pyromaniacs are in charge of putting out the fire and assessing blame.  To get a tad more current I'll quote Charlton Heston in Planet of the Apes, "It's a madhouse."

 

Regards,

Douglas



#6 Rogerdodger

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Posted 10 May 2023 - 09:09 AM

"It's a madhouse."

 

Talk to anyone about current events and you will hear that very quote.