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#11 prognosticator

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Posted 12 May 2023 - 08:08 PM

 

With the April inflation data about to be released over the next two sessions, it's interesting to note that we currently have (McClellan) "Summation Failure" warnings in effect in several market areas that could cause a "crash like" sequence in the equity markets over the next few sessions. Weakest areas remain with the small caps, mid caps and the secondary NASDAQ marketplace in that order, with the large caps having the best chance of market buoyancy on any near term bearish ambush. The price of gold looks ready now to make a concentrated effort to move into new all time high territory which would then suggest that interest rates will be moving lower on a short term trending basis. Bottom line here is that there has been a whole lot of pushing and pulling going on for the last several weeks here in the United States markets, but the good news is that we're about to get a decisive decision on which side will be in control of price movement for the rest of the month of May and into the beginning of June by the end of the week.

 

Place your bets.

 

Fib

 

thank you so much......I'm even more bullish now. Gratefully counting on your analysis everytime you bless the world with it.   

 

 

 

I for one am thankful that he "chooses to bless the world" with his comments and look forward to them. One day, with hard work,you might attain the IQ required to interpret what the poster is saying, his history and a decent understanding of his methods that may allow you to better your financial position.

 

I sit here tonight enjoying "Critical Mass" as Brinker used to say, largely due to the posts and teachings of Hiker, MSS, IYB and Mr. Breslaw among others.

 

A big thanks to all of them!!!!


Edited by prognosticator, 12 May 2023 - 08:12 PM.


#12 RadioHead

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Posted 13 May 2023 - 12:24 AM

Hey Prognosticator. You are absolutely correct. I respect and learn from several (very few) posters here. Even if their forecast turns out to be wrong. It is always a part of an intelligent conversation, and it is a privilege to be around them. Ignore DaChiefs and permanent bears.

#13 andr99

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Posted 13 May 2023 - 05:19 AM

 

 

With the April inflation data about to be released over the next two sessions, it's interesting to note that we currently have (McClellan) "Summation Failure" warnings in effect in several market areas that could cause a "crash like" sequence in the equity markets over the next few sessions. Weakest areas remain with the small caps, mid caps and the secondary NASDAQ marketplace in that order, with the large caps having the best chance of market buoyancy on any near term bearish ambush. The price of gold looks ready now to make a concentrated effort to move into new all time high territory which would then suggest that interest rates will be moving lower on a short term trending basis. Bottom line here is that there has been a whole lot of pushing and pulling going on for the last several weeks here in the United States markets, but the good news is that we're about to get a decisive decision on which side will be in control of price movement for the rest of the month of May and into the beginning of June by the end of the week.

 

Place your bets.

 

Fib

 

thank you so much......I'm even more bullish now. Gratefully counting on your analysis everytime you bless the world with it.   

 

 

 

I for one am thankful that he "chooses to bless the world" with his comments and look forward to them. One day, with hard work,you might attain the IQ required to interpret what the poster is saying, his history and a decent understanding of his methods that may allow you to better your financial position.

 

 

 

 

One day, after a hard work, you will have the IQ required to distinguish a man from a woman, basing on the posts that the poster publishes here. In the meanwhile, scientist, go to study, you have a long trip in order to achieve that phenomenal improvement of your IQ 


Edited by andr99, 13 May 2023 - 05:23 AM.

forever and only a V-E-N-E-T-K-E-N - langbard


#14 pdx5

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Posted 13 May 2023 - 09:52 AM

I love the insult posts back and forth like a good tennis rally.
"Money cannot consistently be made trading every day or every week during the year." ~ Jesse Livermore Trading Rule

#15 andr99

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Posted 13 May 2023 - 11:50 AM

sorry prognosticator, my apologies to you.......my reply was for radiohead.......not for you. My entire reply must be read as directed to radiohead, not to you........ He is the scientist who is not able to distinguish men from women, basing on the posts. That said, if you go to read past threads that I started, sir fib reserved his attention to almost everyone of them with a tone that has never been exactly friendly to say the least. So that sometimes you get back the same medecine you reserve to others. 


Edited by andr99, 13 May 2023 - 11:55 AM.

forever and only a V-E-N-E-T-K-E-N - langbard


#16 andr99

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Posted 13 May 2023 - 12:14 PM

I love the insult posts back and forth like a good tennis rally.

 

tomorrow I'm on clay court. I would like to get back to my past level, but one hour per week is not enough when you face well trained people who play four or five times a week. However before considering to start playing golf, I will try to get to that ancient level that made the people stop by the court to watch. Have a good golf playing week-end, I know you like golf.   


Edited by andr99, 13 May 2023 - 12:16 PM.

forever and only a V-E-N-E-T-K-E-N - langbard


#17 pdx5

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Posted 13 May 2023 - 04:39 PM

 

I love the insult posts back and forth like a good tennis rally.

 

tomorrow I'm on clay court. I would like to get back to my past level, but one hour per week is not enough when you face well trained people who play four or five times a week. However before considering to start playing golf, I will try to get to that ancient level that made the people stop by the court to watch. Have a good golf playing week-end, I know you like golf.   

 

Yeah I know exactly what you mean. When I was playing 5 rounds of 18 every week at Royal Oaks country club, my chipping and putting was at its best. Playing only 1 or 2 rounds in a week, it is easy to lose touch. Same thing in Tennis, I am sure.


Edited by pdx5, 13 May 2023 - 04:40 PM.

"Money cannot consistently be made trading every day or every week during the year." ~ Jesse Livermore Trading Rule

#18 steadyquest

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Posted 13 May 2023 - 06:38 PM

Bonds appear to be set up for a plunge.

 

ble.png

 

optax.png



#19 pdx5

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Posted 14 May 2023 - 09:32 AM

Bonds which mature short term have no plunge when held to maturity.. 

I do not buy bond funds, buy only individual bonds.


Edited by pdx5, 14 May 2023 - 09:33 AM.

"Money cannot consistently be made trading every day or every week during the year." ~ Jesse Livermore Trading Rule

#20 fib_1618

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Posted 14 May 2023 - 05:20 PM

Updated charts of the NYAD and NYUD are shown below showing the potential Summation Failure triggers at work here.

 

For those who may be wondering, the overall classic sequence of such events is to see the MCSUM move up and through the +500 level; correct the "overbought" readings to or toward the zero line; attempt to re-initiate the previous bullish breadth thrusts by moving back above the +500 level (and break free of the bear market default); fail at doing so below the +500 level (or even weaker at the +250 level); with the trigger taking place once the MCSUM moves down and through the zero line as traders recognize that the price trend has switched from up to down and rush for the exits. Sometimes the exit is a revolving door where only a few can get through, while the rest panic in doing so which causes the "crash like" event. Other times is just a wide open door that one can just walk through minus the panic. The key on both the likelihood and intensity of such triggers is the dynamics of the raw cumulative data that are being measured. Right now, cumulative volume is leading breadth to the downside where volume is the directional rudder for price, while breadth is in a holding pattern waiting for more information.

 

All technical...nothing emotional...all based strictly on the amount of money the market has to work with at any given time.

 

Fade such events at your own risk, as well as, personalities over substance.

 

All that said...so far the current event has been muted with European issues telling a completely different story as their A/D lines hover around their all time highs. So if we're going to get such an event, it should take place by Tuesday or it will go off the board and we'll continue to drip, drip, drip away with the path of least resistance to the downside. The other insight we have here is that instead of finding support at the zero line, both the NYAD and NYUD Summation Indexes overshot these levels which highly suggests that the overall market structure has been huffing and puffing its way higher since the October 13th lows. So if the MCSUM's can turn higher from here and form a bottom above a bottom, then the summer months should see a bullish bias into the fall. If not, then the October 13th lows will be taken out (maybe by the end of May) with new downside price projections given for the major market indices.

 

Have a great week of trading!

 

Fib

 

 

nyad051223.png

 

nyud051223.png


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"Beware of false knowledge; it is more dangerous than ignorance" - George Bernard Shaw

 

Demagogue: A leader who makes use of popular prejudices, false claims and promises in order to gain power.

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