Starting a new short build at 4425....
"sort of flying blind at the moment. ... any short-term analysis now is simply guessing ..."
Started by
dTraderB
, Jun 24 2023 10:00 AM
104 replies to this topic
#92
12SPX
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Posted 29 June 2023 - 03:04 PM
Yay, going into the night session with an average short of 4430 and a total of 155 points made the last couple weeks!!
#93
redfoliage2
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Posted 29 June 2023 - 03:28 PM
QQQ looks at ST bottom as an inverted H&S has being developed on its hourly chart. We may see a ST rally early July.
Edited by redfoliage2, 29 June 2023 - 03:29 PM.
#94
dTraderB
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Posted 30 June 2023 - 06:09 AM
High Probability of a 2% plus FOMO final day of JUNE, Q2, H1
Building BIG LONG ASIAN position, and quite possible today of a good bullish surge where I can add more US LONGS.
My research - limited so far - shows LATAM equities disappointing, European equities somewhat extended so I will focus on ASIAN.
Building BIG LONG ASIAN position, and quite possible today of a good bullish surge where I can add more US LONGS.
My research - limited so far - shows LATAM equities disappointing, European equities somewhat extended so I will focus on ASIAN.
#95
dTraderB
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Posted 30 June 2023 - 06:10 AM
Want to trade currencies but no time to do TECH stuff... ANY RECOMMENDATIONS FOR A TOP 5 FOREX SIGNAL PROVIDER??
High Probability of a 2% plus FOMO final day of JUNE, Q2, H1
Building BIG LONG ASIAN position, and quite possible today of a good bullish surge where I can add more US LONGS.
My research - limited so far - shows LATAM equities disappointing, European equities somewhat extended so I will focus on ASIAN.
#96
dTraderB
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Posted 30 June 2023 - 06:33 AM
Yeah, this is FACT, but trading id not do SIMPLE:
"Historically in bear markets the S&P500 doesn't go up every quarter.
In fact, by definition, if the S&P500 is going up every quarter, we call those bull markets.
Today is the last day of Q2 and the S&P500 is up over 7% for the quarter.
The S&P500 was also up over 7% in Q1.
And it was up another 7% in Q4 last year.
This represents 3x the average market return, for each of the past 3 quarters.
Along the way, we've seen consistent sector rotation and an expansion in market breadth, both among sectors in the U.S. and in countries around the globe.
This is the type of market environment where investors are being rewarded for owning stocks, not for shorting them.
If things like "fundamentals" or anything about the "economy" kept you from owning enough stocks the past few quarters, perhaps it would be best to start to ignore those "fundamentals" and "economics", and instead focus some more attention on the only thing around here that is going to pay anyone: Price.
Only price pays.
Humans will use any data point except price to justify their poor decision making.
Don't do that.
Price is the final arbiter.
Show some respect."
-- JC PARETS
"Historically in bear markets the S&P500 doesn't go up every quarter.
In fact, by definition, if the S&P500 is going up every quarter, we call those bull markets.
Today is the last day of Q2 and the S&P500 is up over 7% for the quarter.
The S&P500 was also up over 7% in Q1.
And it was up another 7% in Q4 last year.
This represents 3x the average market return, for each of the past 3 quarters.
Along the way, we've seen consistent sector rotation and an expansion in market breadth, both among sectors in the U.S. and in countries around the globe.
This is the type of market environment where investors are being rewarded for owning stocks, not for shorting them.
If things like "fundamentals" or anything about the "economy" kept you from owning enough stocks the past few quarters, perhaps it would be best to start to ignore those "fundamentals" and "economics", and instead focus some more attention on the only thing around here that is going to pay anyone: Price.
Only price pays.
Humans will use any data point except price to justify their poor decision making.
Don't do that.
Price is the final arbiter.
Show some respect."
-- JC PARETS
#97
dTraderB
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Posted 30 June 2023 - 06:35 AM
BARRON'S:
The Nasdaq has gained nearly 30% in the first halfthe third-best first half since 1972. Thats a welcome rebound after the carnage of 2022, when the technology-heavy index fell more than 30%.
The interesting question is what will happen in the second half. The answer depends very much on what you choose to look at.
Historically, the index performs better in the first half than the second half on averageit averages a 7% first-half gain and a 4.6% second-half increase, according to Dow Jones market data. However, when the first half has delivered gains of 29% or more, the second half has, on average, delivered an 11% drop. Not a great sign.
A puzzling aspect of 2023 so far is that it has been driven by only a handful of big-name stocks. The Big Seven: Tesla, Meta, Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon. If the index stars are able to lift others, think of it as though the rest of the index were attached to these big names by a rubber bandits fair to think the gains could fan out to others.
Another curious detail about the Nasdaqs first half is that the number of days on which it rose was historically small. But dont worry, thats actually a good sign, according to Bespoke Investment Group. The fewer positive trading days in which the index gained at least 10% during a first half has typically meant a rally continued into the second half.
That aside, its worth asking why the Big Seven have gained. Its not really earnings. Its not a great macro environmentinterest rates are still rising and growth is tepid. And its probably not just a technical bounce back after 2022.
The biggest single driver is surely the hype around artificial intelligencesomething that can help lots of companies. It suggests AI may be the rubber band that pulls the rest of the index up for the next few months.
Brian Swint
The Nasdaq has gained nearly 30% in the first halfthe third-best first half since 1972. Thats a welcome rebound after the carnage of 2022, when the technology-heavy index fell more than 30%.
The interesting question is what will happen in the second half. The answer depends very much on what you choose to look at.
Historically, the index performs better in the first half than the second half on averageit averages a 7% first-half gain and a 4.6% second-half increase, according to Dow Jones market data. However, when the first half has delivered gains of 29% or more, the second half has, on average, delivered an 11% drop. Not a great sign.
A puzzling aspect of 2023 so far is that it has been driven by only a handful of big-name stocks. The Big Seven: Tesla, Meta, Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon. If the index stars are able to lift others, think of it as though the rest of the index were attached to these big names by a rubber bandits fair to think the gains could fan out to others.
Another curious detail about the Nasdaqs first half is that the number of days on which it rose was historically small. But dont worry, thats actually a good sign, according to Bespoke Investment Group. The fewer positive trading days in which the index gained at least 10% during a first half has typically meant a rally continued into the second half.
That aside, its worth asking why the Big Seven have gained. Its not really earnings. Its not a great macro environmentinterest rates are still rising and growth is tepid. And its probably not just a technical bounce back after 2022.
The biggest single driver is surely the hype around artificial intelligencesomething that can help lots of companies. It suggests AI may be the rubber band that pulls the rest of the index up for the next few months.
Brian Swint
#98
dTraderB
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Posted 30 June 2023 - 06:37 AM
Key developments that should provide more direction to U.S. markets later on Friday:
U.S. May personal income, spending and PCE inflation gauge. Dallas Fed PCE. Chicago June PMI business survey, University of Michigan's final June confidence number
European Union summit in Brussels
U.S. corporate earnings: Constellation Brands
U.S. May personal income, spending and PCE inflation gauge. Dallas Fed PCE. Chicago June PMI business survey, University of Michigan's final June confidence number
European Union summit in Brussels
U.S. corporate earnings: Constellation Brands
#99
K Wave
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Posted 30 June 2023 - 06:42 AM
1 year rates fresh multi-decade highs....sure looks like a long term year cycle turn there...
But so, far no sign of a crack in the cult leader....
Utilities look poised for a rough couple of months ahead...
Edited by K Wave, 30 June 2023 - 06:50 AM.
The strength of Government lies in the people's ignorance, and the Government knows this, and will therefore always oppose true enlightenment. - Leo Tolstoy
#100
dTraderB
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Posted 30 June 2023 - 08:12 AM
Finally! Let's SHORT this LONG FOMO PIG!
Unless markets tank more than 4% this will be a RED JUNE... but a great FIRST HALF, still not as good as 2022 FIRST HALF.
Want to load SHORTS ... INTO & DURING JULY.
RISK PORTFOLIO almost empty -- buying PUTS of NASDAQ BIG TECHS etc
Also UVXY CALKS, TLT CALLS...
Unless markets tank more than 4% this will be a RED JUNE... but a great FIRST HALF, still not as good as 2022 FIRST HALF.
Want to load SHORTS ... INTO & DURING JULY.
RISK PORTFOLIO almost empty -- buying PUTS of NASDAQ BIG TECHS etc
Also UVXY CALKS, TLT CALLS...
High Probability of a 2% plus FOMO final day of JUNE, Q2, H1
Building BIG LONG ASIAN position, and quite possible today of a good bullish surge where I can add more US LONGS.
My research - limited so far - shows LATAM equities disappointing, European equities somewhat extended so I will focus on ASIAN.
