104 replies to this topic

[dTraderB]

FOMO BULL SURGE!

End of month, Quarter, half

Could last until mid JULY, important HIGH will be made ....what levels?   ES 4450 to 4550  --- big fat top 

 

Big improvement in JUNE NET ACCOUNT return but still negative. 

 

not overtrading to try to turn it around in 2 days but focusing on July positions --  building a SHORT from small SHORT position now. 

[dTraderB]

thrashing around zero line

 

https://www.marketin...llan-oscillator

[dTraderB]

Maybe this is the best rally to SHORT since the JAN 2022 one, into the RUSSIAN INVASION of UKRAINE. I THINK DO, WILL BE BUILDING A HUGE SHORT POSITION. But, this could rally for 2 more weeks, so ST & IT trading, ópening & closing SHORTS while daytrading mainly LONGS with an extra lot in SHORT trades.

BARRON'S:
June 29, 2023

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Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell
Photograph by Mark Wilson/Getty Images
Powells Honesty About Inflation Is Rare. Why Markets Need to Be Worried.
Its highly unusual for the heads of four of the worlds most powerful central banks to hold a public discussion together. Thats what happened on Wednesday in Sintra, Portugal.

The headlines saying the Federal Reserve and others are likely to keep raising interest rates werent enough to cause shock wavesstocks finished more or less flat.

But the underlying messages were quite frightening. For one, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and his peers more or less admitted they dont understand what is happening right now in their battle with inflation.

They couched that message in positive spinits great that economies have proven resilient since they started tightening, and its a nice surprise that unemployment remains so low. Translation: Thats not what we would have expected, and were not totally sure why the economy hasnt tanked after the biggest and fastest rate hikes in a generation.

Same for the message that policy is data-dependent. Translation: We dont have confidence in our own forecasts, we need more clues from whats happening on the ground.

The slowdown in inflation so far can be attributed, in the most part, to energy prices retreating and supply-chain kinks working themselves out. Inflation is staying too high because companies can raise prices, and workers can demand higher pay. Higher rates have barely touched the real economy and consumer prices yet.

Thats why Powell also said something thats even rarer among central bankers than admitting hes relying more on his judgment than his statistical models.

When asked when inflation will return to the 2% target, Powell straight up said it wont happen before 2025a very long time for a policy maker to concede failure. That now makes it crystal clear interest rates are going to stay higher for longer.

[dTraderB]

That YEN trade is enticing but must wait for levels above 145 to SHORT.

FED will talk tougher as market rallies but FEAR IF FED has almost vanished, replaced by almost contempt:
"Fed Chair Jerome Powell's relative hawkishness, in a series of comments made in Europe over the past 24 hours, has shunted money market rates higher - with futures now starting to price a one-in-five chance of a second quarter-point rate rise by year-end. Hopes for any rate cut in 2023 are all but gone.



"I wouldn't take...moving at consecutive meetings off the table at all," he said, noting "the committee clearly believes that there's more work to do, that there are more rate hikes that are likely to be appropriate".



With the big U.S. banks passing their latest series of stress tests overnight - despite big paper bond hits over the past year and regional bank ructions in the Spring - Powell said on Thursday the Fed was 'very reluctant' to sound the all clear for banks just yet and further rate rises from here would be at a 'moderate' pace.



Two-year Treasury yields crept higher to 4.77% on Thursday after all the news, with the dollar firmer too and S&P500 futures marginally positive - helped by Micron. The VIX volatility gauge remains subdued at 13.6.



Powell's relative hawkishness was mostly matched by counterparts at the European Central Bank and Bank of England yesterday. Sweden's Riksbank was the latest to push ahead with a rate hike on Thursday, and German inflation readouts for June pointed to a worrying re-acceleration of price rises there.



But Western central banks' doubling down on rate rise plans stands in stark contrast to super-easy stances in Japan and China - with commensurate pressure building on the yen and the yuan against a resurgent dollar as a result, despite local efforts to frustrate dollar moves to 2023 highs this week.



Dollar/yen hit another 7-month high on Thursday."

[dTraderB]

Powell out there -- be careful, he appears exasperated;

"Key developments that should provide more direction to U.S. markets later on Thursday:
U.S. final Q1 GDP and related inflation estimates, weekly jobless claims, May pending home sales
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speaks in Madrid, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic speaks in Dublin
European Union summit in Brussels
U.S. corporate earnings: Nike, McCormick, Paychex"

[dTraderB]

What a TRAVEL mess! It may grind to a halt next few days... but travel stocks soaring.
I gave up on this sector years ago... not worth it.

"The U.S. travel industry has recovered from the impact of Covid-19. Its stock-price recovery is still a work in progress.

"Americans are once again boarding flights in numbers similar to prepandemic levels. About 2.3 million passengers, on average, have passed through U.S. airports each day this year, according to data from the Transportation Security Administration. That is on par with the daily average in 2019.

Demand for domestic leisure travel soared after the worst of the pandemic as flexible work schedules became more common. Meanwhile, business travel and international demand have been slower to recover, said Michael Bellisario, senior hotels analyst at Baird."

[dTraderB]

Add HANG SENG, FTSE A50 LONGS

[dTraderB]

ES 4400 will be tested today... will it hold?

 

very bearish report....   listen carefully to POWELL & BOSTIC today

[12SPX]

So interesting, they moved up GDP and the market is still up with rising rates lol!!  I'm willing to bet we see red today but guess we'll see.  Yesterday ended up taking profits for 2 points on my 4411 short and have built since with a an average short of 4418.  Gonna be an interesting couple of days as we end the quarter and first 6 months of the year.  I can see the bulls coming out in droves talking about up up up, so easy being a bull lol!! 

[12SPX]

Setting up my profit stop at 4418 and hit for 2 points profit, selling above and best news I'm now over 150 point loss make up yay!!!