15 replies to this topic

[andr99]

............precisely on the 4th of January. Not me either by the way. Catching tops is nearly impossible. In 23 years I did it just one time. Last year I didn't catch the top, but I did something more intelligent I think......I

 

waited for the first bounce and on March 29th I recognized the bounce was over and from there I was spot on for the whole downtrend till its bottom that I identified perfectly (all written in this forum....go and search).

 

Now, there's a question that I'm asking myself.....if NO ONE was able to predict the 2022 top, why people go on saying we are going to resume the downtrend when nobody is skilled with regards to top catching ? 

 

Why people go on fighting the uptrend underway ? Instead of catching a top that in my opinion won't come, because when it comes no one predicts it.........isn' t it better to simply follow the market up ? 

[12SPX]

I wish I could go back but I was saying it all of December that the market was headed lower and reaffirmed it even more the final day of the year.  Will admit I figured the end of this rally was around 4350 so have been fighting since but that's okay, I think the market has gone way overboard and it hasn't been a healthy advance but its up so much now even if we fell back to 4100 it wouldn't be that big a deal.  We'll see where we would go from there but if the slowdown starts showing up that I'm thinking of, by the end of the year we could be more on the low side then higher in my view....  Another point is even if you are fighting the uptrend you can still make money in a healthy market.  I took my first loss in 33 months last month so we'll see how this one turns out, I've only been waiting a couple days lol!! 

[andr99]

I wish I could go back but I was saying it all of December that the market was headed lower and reaffirmed it even more the final day of the year.  Will admit I figured the end of this rally was around 4350 so have been fighting since but that's okay, I think the market has gone way overboard and it hasn't been a healthy advance but its up so much now even if we fell back to 4100 it wouldn't be that big a deal.  We'll see where we would go from there but if the slowdown starts showing up that I'm thinking of, by the end of the year we could be more on the low side then higher in my view....  Another point is even if you are fighting the uptrend you can still make money in a healthy market.  I took my first loss in 33 months last month so we'll see how this one turns out, I've only been waiting a couple days lol!! 

 

tomorrow great day eh.......Sinner.....from a smal town just few kilometers away from where I am, is in the semi final with Djokovic. Hard to believe he can do it, but I will be in front of the tv with a fresh drink shouting so loud

 

that probably they will hear me in Wimbledon...............FORZA JANNIK  

Edited by andr99, 13 July 2023 - 03:16 PM.

[fib_1618]

Just did a quick check, and there were a couple who called "a" top on January 4th, but our old friend "Chilidawgz" gets the gold star as far as being precise is concerned: https://tinyurl.com/2jsml673

 

Here's my not so precise "Shot off the Bow" post of December 20th during the two week holiday slow down into the top in which I took some flak on: https://tinyurl.com/2gkoqo5n The chat sessions were a bit more precise, but we didn't get an all out bear market sell signal until January 21st....and that's posted in the Market Analysis Area of Traders Talk at this link: https://tinyurl.com/2l24cosf

 

Sometimes...I guess...you just get lucky in this business.

 

Fib

[sixpack]

There is one who called the price top within 50 points on the spx well in advance. He also was pounding the table to buy when the market tanked at the beginning of the Covid fiasco.

[pdx5]

S&P 500 P/E Ratio is at a current level of 23.46, up from 22.23 last quarter and up from 22.89 one year ago. This is a change of 5.55% from last quarter and 2.48% from one year ago.

 

So market is acting bullish. 

[andr99]

wait a moment.....one count is predicting a short term top (and probably on the 4th of January 2022 many might have expected such a kind of top), another count is predicting a top associated with the start of a multi month

 

correction if not of a bear market. For example in September 2022 I predicted the bottom of the drop that started in January 2022. Right or wrong that I may be (we will know only when the spx marks new highs) that is a kind

 

of prediction that is more difficult than predicting a short term bottom. Maybe someone somewhere predicted in January 2022 the start of a multi month bear trend, but sincerely I don't remember to have read about that in this

 

forum, or elsewhere.     

Edited by andr99, 14 July 2023 - 03:20 AM.

[andr99]

I want to underline that I'm not saying I am good or I was good.......I'm just saying that predicting tops is very very hard. Because tops are a process while bottoms are an event. It is difficult in a sideways topping process to

 

establish exactly when they start pushing down hardly. Precisation needed because someone might misunderstand. Like when I post informations about my own land and people and someone understands apples for

 

oranges. 

Edited by andr99, 14 July 2023 - 04:06 AM.

[andr99]

......and obviously it's easy to exchange a sideways accumulation process for a sideways distribution process............that's why a couple of months ago, in May, most people were wrong expecting the resumption of the bear

 

trend. TOPS are difficult to catch.......but it seems that also following the uptrend is not that easy to tell the truth.........as fear is the worst enemy of investors

Edited by andr99, 14 July 2023 - 04:32 AM.

[steadyquest]

Can't deny it any longer - this market has powerful momentum and animal spirits behind it.  I'm calling a top at the nice round figure of 5000.  I believe we are still in the bull that began with nixon or reagan.