15 replies to this topic

[pdx5]

Of course we are in a perpetual long term bull due to perpetual money supply expansion.

But it is never a straight line up. There are frequent 20-40% correction during the long term bull run.

Idea is to benefit by trading. Not sit in a perma-bull seat. And currently the market is bullish. And getting overextended. How high it can go? No one knows!

Edited by pdx5, 14 July 2023 - 07:50 PM.

[andr99]

How high it can go? No one knows!

 

you said it........that is the reason why catching tops is the best way to get destroyed by the market

 

 

people should understand that it's useless having a measure that says the market is overextended if you don't have a measure that tells you for how long it will remain overextended 

Edited by andr99, 15 July 2023 - 12:26 AM.

[steadyquest]

Here's my attempt to identify a 5000ish monthly count to bolster my top call - for what it's worth.

 

 

 

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[steadyquest]

The above count has a retrace between 2.33 and 1.75, and I wouldn't expect that top to be 'the' top, i.e., one that ushers in significant price reversion.  Maybe this one will do it.

 

 

[steadyquest]

The count on the above SPY chart would make the S&P almost a perfect tenbagger from the 2009 low of 666. The chart doesn't indicate a low of 66 because it has been adjusted for dividends, so the historical prices are dynamic - they change over time.

[steadyquest]

Wonder what's the deal with that flash crash, and why does it show here but not on Stockcharts (and not on SPY or SPX).