NOTE "NO BULLISH" VOTE SO FAR IN THE POLL FOR MONDAY. VOTE!
https://www.traders-...r-monday-72423/
"...Until we see a change in sentiment, "dips" will be bought until buyers are "exhausted". We've witnessed this Christmas-in-July atmosphere grip the market and at some point I expect the Grinch to show up. Until then avoid euphoria, and stay with stocks that offer better Risk/Reward setups in the short term..."
https://seekingalpha...term=must_reads
Christmas in July! YOGA, MEDITATION, CURRY & WALL ST
Started by
dTraderB
, Jul 22 2023 07:08 PM
61 replies to this topic
#2
dTraderB
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- Traders-Talk User
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Posted 22 July 2023 - 07:17 PM
Having a great time in India. Trying to focus more on the MIND via YOGA, MEDITATION, GREAT FOOD, etc while keeping up with the markets in a different TIME ZONE. Minimal trading was and still is the objective but a trader had to trade when the markets provide great opportunities.
The DOLLAR DIVES, hence the markets spikes up... my FF is reversal of this soon.
"U.S. Dollar
After consolidating throughout the first half of the year, the US Dollar has reached a tipping point and has been plummeting in the past week in response to recent inflation prints. As a result of that move, the Bloomberg Dollar index has been setting new 52-week lows as it currently trades at the lowest levels since April of last year.
The 2.7% decline over the past week is notably large as it ranks as one of the largest five-day declines on record (in data going back to the end of 2004) with only five other periods seeing drops of 2.5% or more without another occurrence in the previous six months. As for the impact on equities, the past week's best performers have been those with the greatest degree of international revenue exposure. As the USD declines, metal prices increase, and stocks associated with copper, etc, are rallying.
Bifurcated Market
While Growth continues to steal the show, it is selling at elevated multiples, sending a market message that says not to worry about a recession. In the meantime "value" is selling at multiples that are pricing in a "mild recession". The conflicting signals have been the issue with attempting to rationalize this market backdrop..."
https://seekingalpha...t-cautious-bull
The DOLLAR DIVES, hence the markets spikes up... my FF is reversal of this soon.
"U.S. Dollar
After consolidating throughout the first half of the year, the US Dollar has reached a tipping point and has been plummeting in the past week in response to recent inflation prints. As a result of that move, the Bloomberg Dollar index has been setting new 52-week lows as it currently trades at the lowest levels since April of last year.
The 2.7% decline over the past week is notably large as it ranks as one of the largest five-day declines on record (in data going back to the end of 2004) with only five other periods seeing drops of 2.5% or more without another occurrence in the previous six months. As for the impact on equities, the past week's best performers have been those with the greatest degree of international revenue exposure. As the USD declines, metal prices increase, and stocks associated with copper, etc, are rallying.
Bifurcated Market
While Growth continues to steal the show, it is selling at elevated multiples, sending a market message that says not to worry about a recession. In the meantime "value" is selling at multiples that are pricing in a "mild recession". The conflicting signals have been the issue with attempting to rationalize this market backdrop..."
https://seekingalpha...t-cautious-bull
#3
dTraderB
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- Traders-Talk User
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Posted 22 July 2023 - 07:20 PM
"As long as the near-term upward trending support line holds, investors can look higher. First support is ~2.8% from Friday's close, while secondary support is 4.8% from here. It fits nicely with the notion that in the near term, pullbacks should be well-contained....
As we witness the recent price action, we have another example where markets can stay overbought than most want to believe. It's been a Christmas-like atmosphere with gifts ( the BIG 7, FAANG, etc.) that just keep on giving. Lower inflation data and a Fed that is at the end of the rate hiking cycle are also welcome presents. Investors find themselves in the middle of one of the best periods of seasonality through the middle of August. That does not mean the market can't fall before then, but it does have some calendar-fueled tailwinds behind it at the moment.
F.O.M.O has entered the scene as I'm now watching individual stocks go on nonstop rallies, with no specific fundamental news driving the push higher. No doubt there are pockets of economic strength that one could point to as the reason for the positivity - particularly in the jobs market - but then again we saw the first Employment Report miss in 14 months last Friday and stocks were still bought. That is another sign of the positive feedback loop I spoke about. Good news is celebrated and bad news is dismissed. That adds to the "Christmas-like" atmosphere lately.
We should never forget that the markets don't have to make sense. Analysts like to come up with reasons for moves after the fact with the benefit of hindsight. In reality, investors need to try to stay in sync with the markets as best they can. I admit to not having a strong bias in the immediate term. I know, I've said that for a while now, and that comes from the fact that I'm not a "'chaser". Especially when indices are at resistance levels..."
https://seekingalpha...t-cautious-bull
As we witness the recent price action, we have another example where markets can stay overbought than most want to believe. It's been a Christmas-like atmosphere with gifts ( the BIG 7, FAANG, etc.) that just keep on giving. Lower inflation data and a Fed that is at the end of the rate hiking cycle are also welcome presents. Investors find themselves in the middle of one of the best periods of seasonality through the middle of August. That does not mean the market can't fall before then, but it does have some calendar-fueled tailwinds behind it at the moment.
F.O.M.O has entered the scene as I'm now watching individual stocks go on nonstop rallies, with no specific fundamental news driving the push higher. No doubt there are pockets of economic strength that one could point to as the reason for the positivity - particularly in the jobs market - but then again we saw the first Employment Report miss in 14 months last Friday and stocks were still bought. That is another sign of the positive feedback loop I spoke about. Good news is celebrated and bad news is dismissed. That adds to the "Christmas-like" atmosphere lately.
We should never forget that the markets don't have to make sense. Analysts like to come up with reasons for moves after the fact with the benefit of hindsight. In reality, investors need to try to stay in sync with the markets as best they can. I admit to not having a strong bias in the immediate term. I know, I've said that for a while now, and that comes from the fact that I'm not a "'chaser". Especially when indices are at resistance levels..."
https://seekingalpha...t-cautious-bull
#4
dTraderB
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Member
Posted 22 July 2023 - 07:22 PM
60-40 bearish poll
Helene Meisler (@hmeisler) tweeted at 4:30 PM on Sat, Jul 22, 2023:
Saturday Poll.
The next 100 points for the S&P?
(https://twitter.com/...0628678656?s=03)
Helene Meisler (@hmeisler) tweeted at 4:30 PM on Sat, Jul 22, 2023:
Saturday Poll.
The next 100 points for the S&P?
(https://twitter.com/...0628678656?s=03)
#5
dTraderB
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- Traders-Talk User
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Posted 22 July 2023 - 07:25 PM
Brian Sullivan (@SullyCNBC) tweeted at 8:21 PM on Sat, Jul 22, 2023:
Big new Harvard poll of registered voters. Survey done this week.
Inflation by far the #1 issue for potential voters. Economy #2. https://t.co/cy3ByCEs4p
Big new Harvard poll of registered voters. Survey done this week.
Inflation by far the #1 issue for potential voters. Economy #2. https://t.co/cy3ByCEs4p
60-40 bearish poll
Helene Meisler (@hmeisler) tweeted at 4:30 PM on Sat, Jul 22, 2023:
Saturday Poll.
The next 100 points for the S&P?
(https://twitter.com/...0628678656?s=03)
#6
dTraderB
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- Traders-Talk User
- 17,704 posts
Member
Posted 22 July 2023 - 07:25 PM
Evan (@StockMKTNewz) tweeted at 2:24 AM on Sun, Jul 23, 2023:
Rents in New York City are reaching record highs with the median listing price in Manhattan now at $4,396 per month as of June
New York Citys median asking rent, including all five boroughs reached $3,750 in June up 7.1% YoY according to data from StreetEasy https://t.co/7D6nBpdMbM
Rents in New York City are reaching record highs with the median listing price in Manhattan now at $4,396 per month as of June
New York Citys median asking rent, including all five boroughs reached $3,750 in June up 7.1% YoY according to data from StreetEasy https://t.co/7D6nBpdMbM
Brian Sullivan (@SullyCNBC) tweeted at 8:21 PM on Sat, Jul 22, 2023:
Big new Harvard poll of registered voters. Survey done this week.
Inflation by far the #1 issue for potential voters. Economy #2. https://t.co/cy3ByCEs4p60-40 bearish poll
Helene Meisler (@hmeisler) tweeted at 4:30 PM on Sat, Jul 22, 2023:
Saturday Poll.
The next 100 points for the S&P?
(https://twitter.com/...0628678656?s=03)
#7
dTraderB
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- Traders-Talk User
- 17,704 posts
Member
Posted 22 July 2023 - 07:28 PM
Packed earnings week, end of month end of seasonally bullish July - my FF is a spike up & then down for most of August into September. UKTRA-HAWKISH FED
Evan (@StockMKTNewz) tweeted at 2:24 AM on Sun, Jul 23, 2023:
Rents in New York City are reaching record highs with the median listing price in Manhattan now at $4,396 per month as of June
New York Citys median asking rent, including all five boroughs reached $3,750 in June up 7.1% YoY according to data from StreetEasy https://t.co/7D6nBpdMbM
Evan (@StockMKTNewz) tweeted at 2:24 AM on Sun, Jul 23, 2023:
Rents in New York City are reaching record highs with the median listing price in Manhattan now at $4,396 per month as of June
New York Citys median asking rent, including all five boroughs reached $3,750 in June up 7.1% YoY according to data from StreetEasy https://t.co/7D6nBpdMbM
Brian Sullivan (@SullyCNBC) tweeted at 8:21 PM on Sat, Jul 22, 2023:
Big new Harvard poll of registered voters. Survey done this week.
Inflation by far the #1 issue for potential voters. Economy #2. https://t.co/cy3ByCEs4p60-40 bearish poll
Helene Meisler (@hmeisler) tweeted at 4:30 PM on Sat, Jul 22, 2023:
Saturday Poll.
The next 100 points for the S&P?
(https://twitter.com/...0628678656?s=03)
#8
dTraderB
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- Traders-Talk User
- 17,704 posts
Member
Posted 22 July 2023 - 07:37 PM
Partially hedged VERY BIG US SHORT position
LONG HANG SENG, FTSE A50 Chinese index, BABA, and a few smaller ASIAN stocks.
Expect far more Chinese stimulus with ASIAN markets outperforming US & EU
BIG UVXY & TLT CALL pisitions
Am in tgeir tome zone so more daytrading ASIAN stocks. INDIA markets on fire! Got to do more analysis & trading of the major INDIAN ETFs & stocks. Daytraded NIFTY but small trades as I lear more about these Markets. They got hit hard on Friday but I resisted big trades in these explosive volatile markets
https://www.moneycon...3-10998821.html
LONG HANG SENG, FTSE A50 Chinese index, BABA, and a few smaller ASIAN stocks.
Expect far more Chinese stimulus with ASIAN markets outperforming US & EU
BIG UVXY & TLT CALL pisitions
Am in tgeir tome zone so more daytrading ASIAN stocks. INDIA markets on fire! Got to do more analysis & trading of the major INDIAN ETFs & stocks. Daytraded NIFTY but small trades as I lear more about these Markets. They got hit hard on Friday but I resisted big trades in these explosive volatile markets
https://www.moneycon...3-10998821.html
#9
dTraderB
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- Traders-Talk User
- 17,704 posts
Member
Posted 22 July 2023 - 07:44 PM
S&P 500 Signals (@SPYSTSignals) tweeted at 10:38 AM on Sat, Jul 22, 2023:
Sell the rip plan worked like a charm today💪 $VIX model is more bullish on vol then it has been the past few days and the $SPY 5 Day Risk Model is 1% away from turning red. Dow has now been up 10 straight days. Feels like there will be some weakness Monday, but looking at the
https://t.co/hJfyNPsrSF
(https://twitter.com/...8491565057?s=03)
#10
dTraderB
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- Traders-Talk User
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Member
Posted 22 July 2023 - 07:49 PM
I am also amazed but not surprised by this or past rallies since DOT COM BUBBLE, and any future BULL FOMO rallies...
Global Macro Monitor
The Fed Squeeze v. The Market Ease
Jul 22
We are amazed that even after over 500 bps of policy rate increases, financial conditions, as measured by the Chicago Fed's NFCI, are as loose as they were back in March 2022, when the Fed Funds rate was around 25 bps.
It's also quite surprising that household wealth, our preferred "loose" measure of the aggregate "money" supply stock, is turning up again. We estimate the current level is around 5.8x nominal GDP. In theory, this metric should be mean reverting as it was for almost fifty years before the mid-1990s.
Our priors are globalization, technological advances, China and Eastern European labor forces entering the global labor market, among other things, have hallowed U.S. aggregate demand, and the Fed has been forced to use monetary policy, primarily through quantitative easing, to inflate asset prices above historical norms to keep demand above the waterline.
Furthermore, our working hypothesis is that the Fed's inflated balance sheet still supports the asset markets and keeps household wealth, which is grossly skewed to the top 10 percent of households, at extreme levels driven by the emergency COVID monetary injections. At some point, quantitative tightening will begin to bite the asset markets. Thus far, however, they have yet to be chastened.
Upshot = Hawkish Fed
The Fed is going to have to remain hawkish, as they even understand that "wealth without work" or production is one of the deadly sins of monetary policy, which was painfully discovered during the past few years.
We wouldn't be surprised to hear Chairman Powell express his frustrations and highlight, in red, the easing of monetary conditions, which is a headwind to the Fed's effort to slow aggregate demand, at the FOMC meeting this week. Wait for it.
Alan Greenspan had a similar dilemma in the mid-aughts, which he labeled the bond market conundrum, where the yield curve wouldn't cooperate with the Fed's tightening cycle, which allowed the housing and credit bubble to continue to expand. Monetary policymakers were forced to keep tightening until the markets and the economy broke.
As always, we are contrarian and reserve the right to be wrong, as we often are, but still freaking love the thought experiment.
Global Macro Monitor
The Fed Squeeze v. The Market Ease
Jul 22
We are amazed that even after over 500 bps of policy rate increases, financial conditions, as measured by the Chicago Fed's NFCI, are as loose as they were back in March 2022, when the Fed Funds rate was around 25 bps.
It's also quite surprising that household wealth, our preferred "loose" measure of the aggregate "money" supply stock, is turning up again. We estimate the current level is around 5.8x nominal GDP. In theory, this metric should be mean reverting as it was for almost fifty years before the mid-1990s.
Our priors are globalization, technological advances, China and Eastern European labor forces entering the global labor market, among other things, have hallowed U.S. aggregate demand, and the Fed has been forced to use monetary policy, primarily through quantitative easing, to inflate asset prices above historical norms to keep demand above the waterline.
Furthermore, our working hypothesis is that the Fed's inflated balance sheet still supports the asset markets and keeps household wealth, which is grossly skewed to the top 10 percent of households, at extreme levels driven by the emergency COVID monetary injections. At some point, quantitative tightening will begin to bite the asset markets. Thus far, however, they have yet to be chastened.
Upshot = Hawkish Fed
The Fed is going to have to remain hawkish, as they even understand that "wealth without work" or production is one of the deadly sins of monetary policy, which was painfully discovered during the past few years.
We wouldn't be surprised to hear Chairman Powell express his frustrations and highlight, in red, the easing of monetary conditions, which is a headwind to the Fed's effort to slow aggregate demand, at the FOMC meeting this week. Wait for it.
Alan Greenspan had a similar dilemma in the mid-aughts, which he labeled the bond market conundrum, where the yield curve wouldn't cooperate with the Fed's tightening cycle, which allowed the housing and credit bubble to continue to expand. Monetary policymakers were forced to keep tightening until the markets and the economy broke.
As always, we are contrarian and reserve the right to be wrong, as we often are, but still freaking love the thought experiment.
S&P 500 Signals (@SPYSTSignals) tweeted at 10:38 AM on Sat, Jul 22, 2023:
Sell the rip plan worked like a charm today💪 $VIX model is more bullish on vol then it has been the past few days and the $SPY 5 Day Risk Model is 1% away from turning red. Dow has now been up 10 straight days. Feels like there will be some weakness Monday, but looking at the
https://t.co/hJfyNPsrSF
(https://twitter.com/...8491565057?s=03)
