61 replies to this topic

[dTraderB]

ADAM:
"...Some core big picture structures and levels I am watching now (from highest to lowest). These are big picture structures that drive the broad trend, and provide context and orientation to the daily price action. They are not meant to be predictive and I will be trading the levels in the below plan level to level, one move at a time.

4590-93. This is where ES broke down on Thursday. It needs to therefore clear to end the pullback leg. Breakout here would target 4600 then 4620s.

4533-37. This was the area we broke out last Thursday morning, and back-tested it on Sunday evening and Monday morning this week. Key support now and fail there likely starts a sell back to 4490s. I see 4590-93 to 4537-33 as being a possible pattern formation range next week.

4493-97. This represents the major June/July resistance and is resistance of the ascending triangle structure in purple below I have discussed for a week. Last Wednesday, this broke out with force and momentum. Technical analysis 101 now: Bulls must defend the breakout point which is 4493. Breakout is fully in play above there, with failure there resulting in a failed breakout and requiring either more time in chop, or a deeper sell leg. Support of the ascending triangle is 4466-70 now. Also note that backtests of these breakout levels are rarely clean. Price is unlikely to just neatly touch 4493 and squeeze. It usually flushes, traps, then recovers.

The large rising uptrend channel in white. This connects the March lows and the May lows is the primary medium term channel. Support is currently 4380 and the most immediate resistance rail is 4627 now (with 5000+ being the upper rail and ultimate long-term magnet as long as the channel is play). Channels fill out. We tested support of this in May. 4617 is resistance of this channel, and it remains high probability it touches. This is a very strong resistance. Clear here, and we are off 4640-45 then 4660 as next magnet (as a bare minimum)...."

[dTraderB]

Helene Meisler (@hmeisler) tweeted at 10:35 PM on Sat, Jul 22, 2023:
The net sentiment in chart form. Folks been bearish for 6 of the last 7 weeks. And in that time SPX has rallied 200 handles.

You guys used to be right more than not. Not so much anymore. Wonder what changed.... https://t.co/wDFcLLb8tI

[dTraderB]

Helene Meisler (@hmeisler) tweeted at 8:41 PM on Sat, Jul 22, 2023:
AAII bulls over 50% for the first time since 2021.

And look at the move (finally!) in the Bob Farrell indicator.
https://t.co/TkVpaXnM18

(https://twitter.com/...3989512192?s=03)

Helene Meisler (@hmeisler) tweeted at 10:35 PM on Sat, Jul 22, 2023:
The net sentiment in chart form. Folks been bearish for 6 of the last 7 weeks. And in that time SPX has rallied 200 handles.

You guys used to be right more than not. Not so much anymore. Wonder what changed.... https://t.co/wDFcLLb8tI

[dTraderB]

Macro Charts (@MacroCharts) tweeted at 4:32 PM on Sat, Jul 22, 2023:
Last time Tech flows were this high marked the peak of the Meme Stock Bubble (1Q21).

The same Low-quality Stocks were squeezed higher recently and now show signs of exhaustion/downside reversal the last few days. Watch closely. https://t.co/ttwisjKbVw

Helene Meisler (@hmeisler) tweeted at 8:41 PM on Sat, Jul 22, 2023:
AAII bulls over 50% for the first time since 2021.

And look at the move (finally!) in the Bob Farrell indicator.
https://t.co/TkVpaXnM18

(https://twitter.com/...3989512192?s=03)

Helene Meisler (@hmeisler) tweeted at 10:35 PM on Sat, Jul 22, 2023:
The net sentiment in chart form. Folks been bearish for 6 of the last 7 weeks. And in that time SPX has rallied 200 handles.

You guys used to be right more than not. Not so much anymore. Wonder what changed.... https://t.co/wDFcLLb8tI

[dTraderB]

Helene Meisler (@hmeisler) tweeted at 4:18 PM on Sat, Jul 22, 2023:

Citi Panic/Euphoria. Not quite into euphoria but quite a move.

https://t.co/YDh82Tt7H2
(https://twitter.com/...0726975489?s=03)

Macro Charts (@MacroCharts) tweeted at 4:32 PM on Sat, Jul 22, 2023:
Last time Tech flows were this high marked the peak of the Meme Stock Bubble (1Q21).

The same Low-quality Stocks were squeezed higher recently and now show signs of exhaustion/downside reversal the last few days. Watch closely. https://t.co/ttwisjKbVw

Helene Meisler (@hmeisler) tweeted at 8:41 PM on Sat, Jul 22, 2023:
AAII bulls over 50% for the first time since 2021.

And look at the move (finally!) in the Bob Farrell indicator.
https://t.co/TkVpaXnM18

(https://twitter.com/...3989512192?s=03)

Helene Meisler (@hmeisler) tweeted at 10:35 PM on Sat, Jul 22, 2023:
The net sentiment in chart form. Folks been bearish for 6 of the last 7 weeks. And in that time SPX has rallied 200 handles.

You guys used to be right more than not. Not so much anymore. Wonder what changed.... https://t.co/wDFcLLb8tI

[dTraderB]

I agree with this but the markets has to move past this ultra hawkish FED phase before a major BULL RUN to new ATHs... coming in Q4 2023

Mark Ungewitter (@mark_ungewitter) tweeted at 3:00 AM on Sun, Jul 23, 2023:
While SPX seems due for a breather, big-picture indicators keep turning bullish, suggesting that a cyclical advance is underway.
(https://twitter.com/...3671627780?s=03)

[dTraderB]

Rob Anderson (@_rob_anderson) tweeted at 4:53 PM on Sat, Jul 22, 2023:
Some good news for the bulls. Margin debt has started to recover from very oversold levels, generating a relatively rare buy signal. Debt remains about $250 billion below the 2021 peak. @NDR_Research https://t.co/igXhdTNyk9

Mosaic Asset (@MosaicAssetCo) tweeted at 7:47 PM on Sat, Jul 22, 2023:
Wrote about margin debt a couple weeks ago as a potential source of demand (along with risk parity flows as vol stays low and spec futures short covering).
(https://twitter.com/...3004470272?s=03)

I agree with this but the markets has to move past this ultra hawkish FED phase before a major BULL RUN to new ATHs... coming in Q4 2023

Mark Ungewitter (@mark_ungewitter) tweeted at 3:00 AM on Sun, Jul 23, 2023:
While SPX seems due for a breather, big-picture indicators keep turning bullish, suggesting that a cyclical advance is underway.
(https://twitter.com/...3671627780?s=03)

[dTraderB]

Saved the MOST BEARISH for the last:
FED will be very hawkish... may change stance to more hawkish "cannot rule out more hikes" in rest of 2023. The FED has room now to get the rate hikes in ... with markets at these levels

[dTraderB]

Tom McClellan (@McClellanOsc) tweeted at 7:22 PM on Fri, Jul 21, 2023:
My latest Chart In Focus article, "California Is Going to Drop a Liquidity Bomb on The Stock Market", is posted at https://t.co/vegxbC2xBJ.

Saved the MOST BEARISH for the last:
FED will be very hawkish... may change stance to more hawkish "cannot rule out more hikes" in rest of 2023. The FED has room now to get the rate hikes in ... with markets at these levels

[dTraderB]

Turned down but still above zero:

https://www.mcoscill...t_breadth_data/

Tom McClellan (@McClellanOsc) tweeted at 7:22 PM on Fri, Jul 21, 2023:
My latest Chart In Focus article, "California Is Going to Drop a Liquidity Bomb on The Stock Market", is posted at https://t.co/vegxbC2xBJ.

Saved the MOST BEARISH for the last:
FED will be very hawkish... may change stance to more hawkish "cannot rule out more hikes" in rest of 2023. The FED has room now to get the rate hikes in ... with markets at these levels