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"Two more green lights plus one shorter-term yellow light"


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#11 dTraderB

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Posted 13 August 2023 - 09:29 PM

"Asian stocks have badly underperformed this year, largely due to worries over China which is battling weak growth, deflation, and capital outflows. Chinese blue chip stocks are flat this year and Hong Kong's Hang Seng index is down 4%."

The MSCI Asia ex-Japan equity index index has now fallen two weeks in a row for the first time since April, and is up only twice in the last eight weeks.

"Caution may morph into outright gloom on Monday, however, after China's biggest privately-owned developer Country Garden said it will suspend trading of its 11 onshore bonds.

The firm's shares are at a record low, it didn't pay two dollar bond coupons due on Aug. 6 totalling $22.5 million, it has liabilities of around $200 billion and last week warned it could report a loss of up to $7.6 billion for the first half.

Investors are wondering how long Beijing will resist pressure to inject any kind of stimulus into an economy that is now officially in deflation with the weakest credit impulse since 2009.

Another batch of sub-par data this week could force authorities' hand."



#12 dTraderB

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Posted 14 August 2023 - 12:20 AM

"#Chinas benchmark stock index is close to erasing all of the gains it made since a key political meeting was held in late July.
The CSI 300 Index was down 1.3% as of the midday break after plunging 3.4% last week. $HSI is now down 2.4%.
#Stockmarket"

#13 dTraderB

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Posted 14 August 2023 - 12:32 AM

GOLDMAN: Our baseline forecast calls for the #FOMC to start cutting the funds rate in 2024Q2. .. We are penciling in 25bp of cuts per quarter but .. it could cut more quickly .. if it is more confident that the inflation problem is unlikely to return.

#14 dTraderB

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Posted 14 August 2023 - 12:46 AM

"Yields on 10-year notes crept up to 4.18% on Monday and within spitting distance of the 2023 top of 4.206%, a break of which would be bearish for a test of last year's 4.337% high.



With the Bank of Japan keeping JGB yields around 0.62%, the widening spread lifted the dollar to a fresh 2023 peak of 145.22 yen on Monday. Anything above 145.00 risks Japanese intervention, but bulls have their eyes on the top from last October at 151.94.



The dollar is also flying on the Aussie and kiwi and a range of emerging Asian currencies, which are being dumped as proxies for China risk." REUTERS

#15 dTraderB

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Posted 14 August 2023 - 05:08 AM

"
If the tit-for-tat on portfolio flows between the two economic superpowers ratchets up, there may be speculation about the stability of China's massive U.S. Treasury and mortgage bond holdings.



Japan's recent monetary policy tweak may also have had some backwash on Treasury bond investments, but the yen continues to slide and briefly hit a 2023 low on Monday as the bond yield gap between Japan and the United States widens.



Briefly topping 145 yen again, the dollar was pumped up across the exchanges and its main index hit the highest in more than a month. The dollar soared against Russia's rouble, vaulting 100 roubles for the first time since shortly after the Ukraine invasion last year and drawing criticism from the Kremlin of its central bank's overly loose monetary policy.



It was another bad start to the week for Shanghai and Hong Kong shares - both of which fell heavily again as property giant Country Garden's debt problems deepened, its onshore bonds were suspended and its shares plunged 16% to a record low. Asia stocks were generally lower too.



China's yuan hit its lowest since June as traders look to a possible easing of 1-year interest rates on Tuesday.



But Wall St futures and European bourses were higher and U.S. investors looked to a big week for assessing retail activity, with national retail sales data for July due on Tuesday and second-quarter earnings due from the big retailers." -- REUTERS

#16 12SPX

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Posted 14 August 2023 - 08:42 AM

Hmmmmm starting the morning with a long build at 4474 although hesitant with rates this high but a little oversold now.



#17 linrom1

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Posted 14 August 2023 - 08:43 AM

Everyone bullish DOLLAR?



#18 redfoliage2

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Posted 14 August 2023 - 08:49 AM

The stock market is more likely to go up for the August monthly options expiration week with a 90% confidence  ........................


Edited by redfoliage2, 14 August 2023 - 08:53 AM.


#19 12SPX

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Posted 14 August 2023 - 09:00 AM

My numbers do say we could move a little higher for expiration but its going to be tight.  At the start of this cycle I thought there was a high probability of a red down cycle and right now we started the week lower...  If it did become an up cycle it would super duper predict a down September cycle...



#20 12SPX

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Posted 14 August 2023 - 09:03 AM

Oh my this is such a grind, profit stop 4475....