19 replies to this topic

[andr99]

correction almost over in my opinion......based on the lenght of the most recent correction in February, we should not be far away from the resumption of the bull. But obviously it's only my personal opinion. 

 

https://i.postimg.cc...t3S/nasdaqq.jpg

Edited by andr99, 18 August 2023 - 12:09 AM.

[andr99]

my point of view, every time I post it, is based on basic TA, which means trend lines, supports, resistances, patterns, similarities, macd signals. In addition I use a comparative technique which is my own and consists of

 

avoiding to look at just a particular stock or index, but looking instead at the whole herd and particuarly looking at what is linked to something else when that something else is unclear while the linked stock or index  is a lot

 

more clear. It's all based on experience and intuition is part of the game. No Gann, Elliott, Astros, because nothing of that has worked with me. And in any case my point of view remains what it is, which means just a personal

 

point of view. Just to be clear and trying to avoid misunderstandings.         

Edited by andr99, 18 August 2023 - 02:11 AM.

[steadyquest]

Maybe a little more rally then a final push down?

 

 

 

Soon be the time to 'buy all things' and hold tight?

 

[linrom1]

bloomberg.com

Japan to Increase Minimum Pay by Record as Inflation Takes Hold

Japan will raise the minimum hourly wage to an average of 1,004 yen ($6.91), exceeding the level proposed by a government panel....

 

That's 10 Japanese employees to 1 UPS driver in US. 

[andr99]

second more pessimistic possibility

 

https://i.postimg.cc...cw/nasdaq-B.jpg

 

the lower horizontal  line represents a support made or iron and the long term trend is still bullish and will remain such as long as that lower support holds, which thing I consider 99% probable

[andr99]

this would be the path that I consider most probable if we get that low

 

https://i.postimg.cc...sdaq-b-path.jpg

 

it would represent a nice long opportunity and a good scroll down of weak hands

[andr99]

if we get that low and it is possible, joe sixpack will enter fully short with the certainty that the long term bearish trend is re-established. How can't it be like that with all the bad news coming out daily on the newspapers ?   

[andr99]

it is possible that the second more pessimistic scenario I have posted is more probable than the first one that I called possibly mistakenly the most probable. That is due mainly to a couple of considerations : 1) they tend to

 

break down a bit obvious dynamic supports in order to place bearish traps 2) the second pattern I have depicted is a classic pattern where a short term h&s is reversed quite soon by a more powerful inverse h&s ( though I didn't

 

draw the inverse right shoulder but just a straight rising line, the concept is of an inverse h&s)   which is strongly bullish. Intuition in these things plays a role and that is what my intuition suggests to me.   

 

The purists will say It's not a true h&s because volumes don't agree with that, but real or fake it' doesn't count......the pattern is composed by two h&s and inverse h&s alike figures and I have  seen it many times

Edited by andr99, 20 August 2023 - 03:17 PM.

[steadyquest]

I'm curious what gives your bottom line its 'iron' support status.  My must-hold support is the bottom of this trend channel.

 

 

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[andr99]

because I strongly believe the long term bull is underway and breaking down that horizontal line would pose strong doubts about the bullish trend. As I don't believe we can doubt the long term bullish trend, that support must

 

hold and that's why it's made of iron. On the other hand if we get that low, do you know how many will be convinced the bear is back ? the majority. Trading is also making some reasonings and that is what I'm reasoning about

 

in this moment. If I'm right or wrong remains to be seen.

 

Reasoning about what trap might be the most logical, because they're placing traps continually

Edited by andr99, 20 August 2023 - 03:57 PM.