19 replies to this topic

[steadyquest]

It drives me nuts when someone suggests the bear market is returning.  What bear market?  What we had was a furious rally and snapback caused by a huge liguidity injection from the fed, done for the purpose of kicking-off this horrendous inflation cycle - with a souped-up cold virus playing the role of flak catcher.  A bear market might be indicated by the loss of the trend channel, but that has yet to happen.

[andr99]

a lot of people here think that the uptrend that started in September-October last year, is just a bounce and the downtrend that started in November 2021 will be resumed. In their opinion the stock market will get to new lows

 

below those of September-October of last year. They don't see the recent ST top of July as the start of just an ST correction, but more realistically as the top of the bounce I said. This is what I have understood from their

 

posts. And the bad news coming from China's economy, from Germany which is in technical recession etc.etc., all of that suggest to them their bearish scenario is the most likely. They fail to understand that the magic hand 

 

behind the market will substain it as it always has made in the past. Tops come on good news, not bad.      

Edited by andr99, 20 August 2023 - 11:16 PM.

[andr99]

I'm curious what gives your bottom line its 'iron' support status.  My must-hold support is the bottom of this trend channel.

 

 

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steadyquest I don't think the lower band of your channel will be ever met again in the next coming few years. My opinion based on pattern recognition which comes down from experience is that we're going to have another leg up like the one that started in early 2020 and ended in Dec. 2022. So I think the higher band of your channel will be broken again upside. I think we are going to rise until February 2025 when China lanches the attack to Taiwan and the stock market tumbles down.  

[steadyquest]

I tend to agree with your assessment.  Some months ago I suggested that the top channel could become the new normal due to the sudden debasement of the denominating currency.  But my concern remains that the 'deciders' could have other plans, e.g., a financial or geopolitical black swan to upset the apple cart.

 

   

[12SPX]

Oooooo andre someone with lots of experience should never say never especially if you have expierience you would know that it took 15 years for the market to make new highs after the the internet implosion in 2000 lol!!  

[andr99]

Oooooo andre someone with lots of experience should never say never especially if you have expierience you would know that it took 15 years for the market to make new highs after the the internet implosion in 2000 lol!!  

 

yes I know there are people here who have 40 years experience on their shoulders, but the sense was that the pattern I'm waiting for is based on intuition and the experience of watching it over and over along the years. There's no indicator at this point that is telling me something because the macd I use gives me signals when it's at extreme values not when it is in no man's land. I'm not here saying.....''hey guys......I am the experienced one'' as I know most here have been watching markets for many more years than I' ve done so far. But my forecast about the pattern that is coming out is however based on my (limited) experience. 

[andr99]

please consider also that when I write here, I'm expressing myself in a laguage that is not my own and so sometimes I miss to put the accent where I should in order to express things with no possible misunderstanding. 

Edited by andr99, 21 August 2023 - 12:02 PM.

[K Wave]

 

Oooooo andre someone with lots of experience should never say never especially if you have expierience you would know that it took 15 years for the market to make new highs after the the internet implosion in 2000 lol!!  

 

yes I know there are people here who have 40 years experience on their shoulders, but the sense was that the pattern I'm waiting for is based on intuition and the experience of watching it over and over along the years. There's no indicator at this point that is telling me something because the macd I use gives me signals when it's at extreme values not when it is in no man's land. I'm not here saying.....''hey guys......I am the experienced one'' as I know most here have been watching markets for many more years than I' ve done so far. But my forecast about the pattern that is coming out is however based on my (limited) experience. 

 

I can definitely see the potential for what you are seeing....if we turn around right about here, and rocket upwards.

We might actually have a really good clue coming on Wednesday morning after NVDA reports.

 

But if all the big generals that are finally showing signs of faltering, continue to do so, all that market cap may be too much for markets to bear.

And IF NVDA falls out of bed soon, that could be the catalyst....

 

Covered all the big shorts on Friday, and going more scalp mode in this tricky area for just a bit, until things a bit more clear...

Edited by K Wave, 21 August 2023 - 05:09 PM.

[K Wave]

I also think you are going to get a big clue over in Italy real soon...

 

If bears successfully turn that last pop into a giant Breakout!!! .... Oops ... Fakeout, then that could be the start of the decline there.

 

As long as above 28K, bulls can still keep chuggin', but below that, things could get dicey in a hurry

 

[andr99]

if the first scenario I depicted, plays out, this below might be the path......a fake h&s put there to be seen and working as a bear trap

 

https://i.postimg.cc...hgs/nasdaqt.jpg

Edited by andr99, 22 August 2023 - 01:56 PM.