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Yield Curve & Black Swan signal?


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#1 Rogerdodger

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Posted 07 September 2023 - 08:53 AM

Meanwhile in unrelated news...The World Health Organization (WHO) has warned of "concerning trends" for COVID-19 ahead of winter as a dangerous new strain runs rampant across the Northern Hemisphere.

 

The yield curve is signaling a 'black swan' event in 2024, this is what it could be - George Gammon

10-year Treasury yielding 4.2%,  2-year Treasury yielding 4.9%.

See: https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/yieldcurve.php

(Animate the chart and watch it foretell steep market declines in 2000 & 2008... and NOW!)

 

KITCO LINK:
The inversion of the yield curve has "incredible" predictive powers, and it is now telling investors that a global financial crisis 2.0 could hit the world economy in 2024, said George Gammon, an investor, macroeconomics expert, and host of the Rebel Capitalist Show.
"If you go back to the 1950s, you see that the inversion of the yield curve has incredible accuracy as far as its predictive power,"
At the time of writing, the U.S. 10-year Treasury was yielding 4.2%, and the U.S. 2-year Treasury was yielding 4.9%.
Goldman has cut the chances of the U.S. falling into recession over the next 12 months to 15% — its third upgrade to its economic outlook in four months.

However, according to Gammon, this yield curve inversion is the key sign that a "black swan" event is coming because it points to what financial insiders are doing behind the scenes.
 "What I would suggest all of your viewers do is very simple — just watch the 2-year and the 10-year. Right now, the 2-year yield is trading above the 10-year. Watch for that to slowly go down," he said. "When it gets down to that 10-year level and then drops below it, that's when you really have to be risk-off, and that's when you really have to be paying attention."

There is a very high probability that the yield curve could uninvert when the Federal Reserve starts dropping rates, Gammon pointed out. But the only way that could happen is if there is a black swan event in the form of a global financial crisis 2.0
what that black swan event could be going into 2024, discussing a potential China collapse, a WW3 scenario, and a real estate crisis.


Edited by Rogerdodger, 07 September 2023 - 10:47 AM.


#2 Rogerdodger

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Posted 07 September 2023 - 12:27 PM

Kevin O’Leary: The chaos is about to start
https://youtu.be/apR...w8KZ7ORcCXBzrwj


Edited by Rogerdodger, 07 September 2023 - 12:31 PM.


#3 Rogerdodger

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Posted 07 September 2023 - 12:38 PM

T Theory in treasuries!

See: https://ttheorygroup...-year-treasury/

 

I am now suggesting that the T in $TNX that will last until September 18.
There is no T in the 30 Year $TYX, but there is a T in the 5 Year $FVX, and that is scheduled to end November 10.
There is no equivalent T in the 2 Year Treasury.


#4 Rogerdodger

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Posted 07 September 2023 - 02:01 PM

Dollar Set for Longest Rally in Years as USA Defies Global Gloom...

 

Well maybe they meant the longest rally this year.

 

Although uup HAS busted out, back to last November levels and back to last September's highs.

 

Soaring US Dollar Raises Alarm as China, Japan Escalate FX Pushback

 

The gap was underscored on Wednesday, when the ISM service-sector index for August rose to a six-month high, bolstered by a pickup in new orders and hiring. On Thursday, initial claims for unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell to the lowest since February.

“Right now, the US economy is so resilient and the European data are so soft, it’s a recipe for dollar-strength overshoot,” Societe Generale strategist Kit Juckes said.


Edited by Rogerdodger, 07 September 2023 - 02:20 PM.