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Seasonally BEARISH - bounce, then BEAR FEAST.


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#1 dTraderB

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Posted 17 September 2023 - 09:51 AM

Seasonally, it is that period when bears feast & fatten up because WINTER is usually quite bullish.
My FF is a bounce, could be sharp & punish unattentive overconfident Bulls, but that will soon be iver and the bears will take control.

I am still NET short CHINESE & HSI equities but started new US LONG position last week.
Will add LONGS on any bounce, also start HEDGE LONGS below ES 4475, or about 2% below recent highs.

Maybe a bounce will continue lifting CHINESE & HSI and I may close more LONGS.

Big TLT LONG & UVXY CALL positions.

Small NVDA LONG position as it traded below the initial 440 target. Not too keen on addind more NVDA LONGS - STOCK & CALLS- but will sell CALLS ON ANY BOUNCE above 455.

Will be more aggressive - LONG & SHORT - dyring rest of 2023.

Cannot wait any longer: I have started the annual Q4 IT SHORT position today. Not ST- those are separate trades, but IT SHORT POSITION.
Ist SHORT is a small AMAZON position.
LATER TODAY, will open new SPY & QQQ SHORT positions. OIL will be peKing soon, ditto for fossil fuel companies, will open SHORT on a few.



#2 dTraderB

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Posted 17 September 2023 - 09:55 AM

Helene's poll is more bearish 58-42

Helene Meisler (@hmeisler) posted at 10:37 PM on Sat, Sep 16, 2023:
The results are in and folks lean bearish this week.

Thanks for voting!

https://t.co/51BUOymLlu

(https://x.com/hmeisl...2407568719?s=03)

#3 dTraderB

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Posted 17 September 2023 - 10:25 AM

FED seems less important now, especially as more in the US & GLOBALLY are more worried about a sharp downturn - basically near to, but not, two consecutive negative Quarterly GDP.

OIL price SPIKE, FUEL prices also approaching precious highs, and wage increases will ensure the FED keep the RATE HIKE POSSIBILITY alive while earning NO RATE CUT in the near future.

So, STAGFLATION?

#4 dTraderB

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Posted 17 September 2023 - 10:26 AM

Dougie Kass (@DougKass) posted at 0:41 AM on Sat, Sep 16, 2023:
@realmoney Sep 15, 2023 | 03:07 PM EDT DOUG KASS
Minding Mr. Market
* In a nutshell...
My working assumptions - based on my analysis amplified over the last few months in my Diary are:
* The S&P Index has likely topped for the year.
* Stocks are statistically overvalued based
(https://x.com/DougKa...6332277166?s=03)

#5 dTraderB

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Posted 17 September 2023 - 10:28 AM

SENTIMENT TRADER:

Risk Appetite and Industry Indexes flash continuation signals
Key points

Despite ongoing short-term weakness, individual objective indicators continue to flash favorable signals for the stock market
The Risk Appetite Index has flashed a series of favorable continuation signals recently
The Industry % Indexes in Bear Market indicator suggests an oversold condition in an established uptrend - which typically plays out to the upside more often than not
The market continues to consolidate; trend continuation indicators remain favorable

The major market indexes peaked in late July and have been consolidating ever since. As always, the longer the market consolidates and the greater the magnitude of the decline, the louder the din of those expressing concern about the market's prospects going forward. Given rising interest rates, rising debt levels, and an inverted yield curve - to name a few of the top worries - it is not unreasonable to be concerned about the ability of the market to reverse back to the upside.

https://mailchi.mp/7...50?e=b27dc45da1

#6 dTraderB

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Posted 17 September 2023 - 10:54 AM

"....the market held support at the 50-DMA on Friday, with the overall price conditions remaining neutral. Like a groundhog that sees its shadow, the MACD signal is close to registering a sell signal. If the signal triggers, it could signal a couple of additional weeks of sloppy trading action heading into October. Such would be consistent with seasonal weakness before heading into the last trading quarter of the year.."

https://realinvestme...rising-concern/

#7 dTraderB

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Posted 17 September 2023 - 10:57 AM

"...
The S&P 500 has not yet confirmed a head-and-shoulders topping pattern. But given the weak trends in these three key ETFs, it appears that a breakdown for the S&P is much more likely than investors may expect!"

https://stockcharts....r-dow-207.html?

#8 pdx5

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Posted 17 September 2023 - 05:18 PM

Good read. Thanks for posting.


"Money cannot consistently be made trading every day or every week during the year." ~ Jesse Livermore Trading Rule

#9 redfoliage2

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Posted 17 September 2023 - 09:32 PM

We are likely to see a small bounce before the Fed day, Wed. Sept 20th ..........................


Edited by redfoliage2, 17 September 2023 - 09:41 PM.


#10 dTraderB

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Posted 18 September 2023 - 06:59 AM

Tough last mile for not just the FED, ECONOMY, abd CITIZENRY, but also the MARKETS. And, it is the last half of September. Good description & analysis from BARRON'S:
"The central bank is widely expected to hold rates steady Wednesday, but the Feds so-called dot plot, which shows where officials see rates going, will likely be of more interest to markets. Last time out, in June, it showed two more rate hikes in 2023weve already had one of those in July.

One key question is whether the Fed will hike again before the year is outthe market thinks it wontand another is when it will start cutting rates.

While the dot plot is useful to a certain extent, the Fed is in data-dependent mode so the future path of rates could change quickly along the way.

Inflation data, in particular, will be weighing on officials mindsthe consumer-price index rose to an annual pace of 3.7% in August, from Julys 3.2%. But its not just the headline dataother factors are fueling inflation that the Fed will be monitoring as it looks to reach its 2% target.

The price of energy is one consideration, another is wage increases.

Regardless of the outcome of the pay dispute between the United Auto Workers and the Detroit auto makers, it will only add to inflationary pressures. A resolution would lead to a 40% (or somewhere near that) pay raise for workers, while a long-running strike could drive up car prices.

Its only one sectorand Ford, General Motors, and Stellantis specificallybut its indicative of a broader trend. Airline pilots, freight railroad workers, and UPS employees have all secured hefty pay hikes in recent months.

The last mile of the Feds inflation battle was always going to be the hardest, but its getting tougher by the day.

Callum Keown"