391 replies to this topic

[dTraderB]

Osc slightly up on Friday

https://www.mcoscill...t_breadth_data/

[dTraderB]

Doug still bearish

Thread Reader App (@threadreaderapp) posted at 3:16 PM on Fri, Sep 22, 2023:

@DougKass Hallo, here is your unroll:

https://t.co/MtwVC2QNZP

Enjoy

[dTraderB]

Dougie Kass (@DougKass) posted at 11:17 PM on Fri, Sep 22, 2023:
As @KeithMcCullough reminds us, rising volume (bottom of chart) on lower share prices (top of the chart) are definitive negative market "tells"
@dougkass

Doug still bearish

Thread Reader App (@threadreaderapp) posted at 3:16 PM on Fri, Sep 22, 2023:

@DougKass Hallo, here is your unroll:

https://t.co/MtwVC2QNZP

Enjoy

[dTraderB]

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (@AlmanacTrader) posted at 10:33 PM on Fri, Sep 22, 2023:
Low Volatility Streak Ends at 102 Days Whats Next?
Yesterday S&P 500 daily streak w/o >1.5% daily loss ended. What happens next? Expanding on our initial research we present the S&P 500 performance during the following three days after the last 42 big down days since 1950.

https://t.co/cGOQfdnGBm

[dTraderB]

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (@AlmanacTrader) posted at 10:38 PM on Fri, Sep 22, 2023:
Expanding the timeframe doesn't improve the near-term outlook. Big down day perf & to subsequent low sometime during next 90 calendar days have been added. Big down day losses now excluded from performance 1-week, 2-weeks, 1-month, and 3-months after.

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (@AlmanacTrader) posted at 10:33 PM on Fri, Sep 22, 2023:
Low Volatility Streak Ends at 102 Days Whats Next?
Yesterday S&P 500 daily streak w/o >1.5% daily loss ended. What happens next? Expanding on our initial research we present the S&P 500 performance during the following three days after the last 42 big down days since 1950.

https://t.co/cGOQfdnGBm

[dTraderB]

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (@AlmanacTrader) posted at 10:42 PM on Fri, Sep 22, 2023:
Still anticipate additional weakness thru Sept & potentially into Oct. Sept-Octoberphobia combined w/ inflation & rate fears likely to trigger further weakness. Potential for another federal government shutdown is also rising and could weigh on the market.

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (@AlmanacTrader) posted at 10:38 PM on Fri, Sep 22, 2023:
Expanding the timeframe doesn't improve the near-term outlook. Big down day perf & to subsequent low sometime during next 90 calendar days have been added. Big down day losses now excluded from performance 1-week, 2-weeks, 1-month, and 3-months after.

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (@AlmanacTrader) posted at 10:33 PM on Fri, Sep 22, 2023:
Low Volatility Streak Ends at 102 Days Whats Next?
Yesterday S&P 500 daily streak w/o >1.5% daily loss ended. What happens next? Expanding on our initial research we present the S&P 500 performance during the following three days after the last 42 big down days since 1950.

https://t.co/cGOQfdnGBm

[dTraderB]

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (@AlmanacTrader) posted at 10:43 PM on Fri, Sep 22, 2023:

We do, however, expect this weakness to be temporary, in the minor correction range of 5-10% from recent highs in July/early-August. And this should set up our perennial pre-election year Q4 rally and a solid Best Months Seasonal MACD Buy Signal.
https://t.co/dSwmcCjQkO

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (@AlmanacTrader) posted at 10:42 PM on Fri, Sep 22, 2023:
Still anticipate additional weakness thru Sept & potentially into Oct. Sept-Octoberphobia combined w/ inflation & rate fears likely to trigger further weakness. Potential for another federal government shutdown is also rising and could weigh on the market.

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (@AlmanacTrader) posted at 10:38 PM on Fri, Sep 22, 2023:
Expanding the timeframe doesn't improve the near-term outlook. Big down day perf & to subsequent low sometime during next 90 calendar days have been added. Big down day losses now excluded from performance 1-week, 2-weeks, 1-month, and 3-months after.

Jeffrey A. Hirsch (@AlmanacTrader) posted at 10:33 PM on Fri, Sep 22, 2023:
Low Volatility Streak Ends at 102 Days Whats Next?
Yesterday S&P 500 daily streak w/o >1.5% daily loss ended. What happens next? Expanding on our initial research we present the S&P 500 performance during the following three days after the last 42 big down days since 1950.

https://t.co/cGOQfdnGBm

[Keepingcool]

With all these crises markets can rally!?

Michael McKee (@mckonomy) posted at 5:18 PM on Wed, Sep 20, 2023:

Happy Fed Day to all who celebrate.
Is this the last boring meeting before the next crisis?
(Pick one):

Oil prices climbing
Student loan payments resume
UAW strike
Government shutdown
Day care cliff
Russia's war
China's economy

When fundamentals wrestle with technicals. gonna be interesting.

[dTraderB]

Bespoke (@bespokeinvest) posted at 2:08 AM on Fri, Sep 22, 2023:
The S&P just hit its most oversold level of the year at more than two standard deviations below its 50-DMA.

All but three sectors are oversold as well. Industrials, Materials, and Consumer Discretionary are the most extended to the downside. 🤮 https://t.co/RuE84ks06G
(https://x.com/bespok...7382866036?s=03)

[dTraderB]

Tons of GLOOM & DOOM as new trading week begins & ends September & Q3 2023. A LOW IS NEAR BUT ST LOW? IT LOW?

"After the worst week since March on Wall St, three issues keep the pressure - a possible U.S. government shutdown at the end of this week, rising annual oil prices and a heavy diary of Treasury debt sales.

Even before U.S. markets kick off on Monday, China's ongoing property bust threw another curve ball at stocks markets there.


Possible shutdown?
Fed aside, there were multiple domestic issues to trouble the horizon - not least a government shutdown next weekend.



Congress so far has failed to finish any of the 12 regular spending bills to fund federal agency programs in the fiscal year starting on Oct. 1 - no agreement by then means Washington runs out of money to keep the government fully operating.



House of Representatives Speaker Kevin McCarthy will push an ambitious plan this week to win approval of four large bills, including military and homeland security funding, that he hopes would demonstrate enough progress to far-right Republicans to win their support for a stop-gap spending bill.



While economists think a short-term shutdown lasting just a few weeks will not have a lasting impact on overall growth, some banks, such as Morgan Stanley, feel the timing could affect fourth-quarter data enough to prevent the Fed from delivering the one final 2023 rate hike it indicated last week.



But with oil prices backing up sharply again this month, the inflation picture - to be sketched out again later this week with the August PCE gauge - has been complicated.



U.S. crude prices have held most of September's gains and year-on-year price gains that feed annual headline inflation are now running at 15% - their highest annual pace of the year so far.



With that messy picture of a government shutdown and energy price rebound, another heavy U.S. Treasury debt auction schedule kicks off on Tuesday with a 2-year note sale - followed by a 3-year note auction on Wednesday and seven-years on Wednesday.



U.S. 10-year Treasury yields nudged back close to 16-year highs above 4.5% set last week. The dollar was pumped up across the board, hitting its highest since March against sterling.



There was better news on the labor strikes front.



Hollywood's writers union reached a preliminary labor agreement with major studios on Sunday, a deal expected to end one of two strikes that have halted most film and television production and cost the California economy billions.



And in the tech sector, Amazon.com on Monday said it will invest up to $4 billion in cash in the high-profile startup Anthropic, in its effort to compete with growing cloud rivals on artificial intelligence.

Key developments that should provide more direction to U.S. markets later on Monday:
Dallas Fed Sept manufacturing survey, Chicago Fed Aug business survey
Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari speaks, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde and ECB board member Isabel Schnabel speak
U.S. Treasury auctions 3- and 6-month bills