xTrends (@xtrends) posted at 5:12 PM on Fri, Oct 20, 2023:
SPX is testing October low and about to tag this channel support. Do or die moment early next week
$SPY $SPX https://t.co/USm7iua1WA
CRITICAL MARKET SUPPORT HOLDS or ES plunges below 4100?
Started by
dTraderB
, Oct 22 2023 04:48 PM
446 replies to this topic
#2
dTraderB
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Posted 22 October 2023 - 04:51 PM
Small NET SHORT US holdings, LONG CHINA & HSI
I voted DOWN MONDAY in Mark's poll.
"Middle East Event Risk
The ICE BofA Treasuries index fell 1.4% last week, its biggest fall since May, and is at an eight-year low. The TLT Treasuries ETF has lost a fifth of its value since mid-July.
Short-covering on Friday ahead of the weekend and Middle East event risk stopped the rot, at least momentarily. Perhaps ominously, however, Friday's bond market relief didn't ease the pressure elsewhere - Wall Street's three main indices still closed 0.9%-1.5% lower.
The S&P 500 lost 2.4% last week, one of the biggest falls this year, and the VIX 'fear index' of U.S. stock market volatility on Friday hit its highest since March.
That's not a positive backdrop for Asia's open on Monday, although braver investors might be looking for some bargains - the MSCI Asia ex-Japan index on Friday fell to its lowest in almost a year and is down 12% since the start of August."
-REUTERS
I voted DOWN MONDAY in Mark's poll.
"Middle East Event Risk
The ICE BofA Treasuries index fell 1.4% last week, its biggest fall since May, and is at an eight-year low. The TLT Treasuries ETF has lost a fifth of its value since mid-July.
Short-covering on Friday ahead of the weekend and Middle East event risk stopped the rot, at least momentarily. Perhaps ominously, however, Friday's bond market relief didn't ease the pressure elsewhere - Wall Street's three main indices still closed 0.9%-1.5% lower.
The S&P 500 lost 2.4% last week, one of the biggest falls this year, and the VIX 'fear index' of U.S. stock market volatility on Friday hit its highest since March.
That's not a positive backdrop for Asia's open on Monday, although braver investors might be looking for some bargains - the MSCI Asia ex-Japan index on Friday fell to its lowest in almost a year and is down 12% since the start of August."
-REUTERS
#3
dTraderB
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Posted 22 October 2023 - 04:53 PM
Can the Chinese Govt stop the slude with new measures announced Saturday? Doubt it.
"Chinese central bank governor Pan Gongsheng on Saturday said that the central bank will make policy more "precise and forceful", guide financial institutions to cut real lending rates, and reduce financing costs for firms and individuals.
His comments are significant because they are his first on policy since stronger-than-expected third-quarter economic data were released earlier this month.
In currencies, the yen and yuan open the week under heavy selling pressure and at critically important levels. Traders will again be on Bank of Japan intervention watch.
Meanwhile, Japanese and Australian PMI data for October are out on Monday. September's reports showed that manufacturing activity in both countries shrank and services sector activity grew, although growth in Japan was the slowest this year."
"Chinese central bank governor Pan Gongsheng on Saturday said that the central bank will make policy more "precise and forceful", guide financial institutions to cut real lending rates, and reduce financing costs for firms and individuals.
His comments are significant because they are his first on policy since stronger-than-expected third-quarter economic data were released earlier this month.
In currencies, the yen and yuan open the week under heavy selling pressure and at critically important levels. Traders will again be on Bank of Japan intervention watch.
Meanwhile, Japanese and Australian PMI data for October are out on Monday. September's reports showed that manufacturing activity in both countries shrank and services sector activity grew, although growth in Japan was the slowest this year."
#5
dTraderB
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Posted 22 October 2023 - 04:59 PM
Odds Favor Further Selling This Week (Maybe a LOT of it)
https://stockcharts....ng-thi-109.html
https://stockcharts....ng-thi-109.html
xTrends (@xtrends) posted at 5:12 PM on Fri, Oct 20, 2023:
SPX is testing October low and about to tag this channel support. Do or die moment early next week
$SPY $SPX https://t.co/USm7iua1WA
#6
dTraderB
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Posted 22 October 2023 - 04:59 PM
Historical Bearishness
Next week is the absolute WORST week of the year historically, dating back to 1950 on the S&P 500. While the S&P 500's average annual returns are approximately +9% over the past 73 years, check out the following annualized returns by calendar day on the S&P 500 over those same 73 years:
October 22nd (today): -90.58%
October 23rd (Monday): -5.14%
October 24th (Tuesday): -32.64%
October 25th (Wednesday): -36.65%
October 26th (Thursday): -56.01%
October 27th (Friday): -24.27%
Those numbers are a far cry from the S&P 500's average annual return of +9%.
And if you think things are better historically on the NASDAQ, think again. Here are the annualized returns by calendar day on the NASDAQ since 1971:
October 22nd (today): -58.57%
October 23rd (Monday): -46.02%
October 24th (Tuesday): -64.64%
October 25th (Wednesday): -25.00%
October 26th (Thursday): -106.39%
October 27th (Friday): -78.14%
Next week is the absolute WORST week of the year historically, dating back to 1950 on the S&P 500. While the S&P 500's average annual returns are approximately +9% over the past 73 years, check out the following annualized returns by calendar day on the S&P 500 over those same 73 years:
October 22nd (today): -90.58%
October 23rd (Monday): -5.14%
October 24th (Tuesday): -32.64%
October 25th (Wednesday): -36.65%
October 26th (Thursday): -56.01%
October 27th (Friday): -24.27%
Those numbers are a far cry from the S&P 500's average annual return of +9%.
And if you think things are better historically on the NASDAQ, think again. Here are the annualized returns by calendar day on the NASDAQ since 1971:
October 22nd (today): -58.57%
October 23rd (Monday): -46.02%
October 24th (Tuesday): -64.64%
October 25th (Wednesday): -25.00%
October 26th (Thursday): -106.39%
October 27th (Friday): -78.14%
Odds Favor Further Selling This Week (Maybe a LOT of it)
https://stockcharts....ng-thi-109.htmlxTrends (@xtrends) posted at 5:12 PM on Fri, Oct 20, 2023:
SPX is testing October low and about to tag this channel support. Do or die moment early next week
$SPY $SPX https://t.co/USm7iua1WA
#7
dTraderB
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Posted 22 October 2023 - 05:10 PM
Closed 4256.5
ES 4246 HEDGE LONG
Still small NET SHORT
WANT TO END THE WEEK PROTECTING MOST OF THE PROFITS.
#8
dTraderB
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Posted 22 October 2023 - 05:16 PM
Surging Deficits - The Bear's New Meme
Powell Spooks the Market
https://realinvestme...bears-new-meme/
Powell Spooks the Market
https://realinvestme...bears-new-meme/
#9
dTraderB
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Posted 22 October 2023 - 05:18 PM
More BEARISH COMMENTARIES ...
My Wall Street View: The Rubber Band Is Stretched
Oct. 21, 2023 2:40 AM ET
Fear & Greed Trader
Summary
Dysfunction in D.C., consumer confidence, labor strife, higher wages, higher interest rates, and geopolitical turmoil are threats to a "soft landing" and the U.S. economy in general.
Ukraine, and now Israel, along with the continuing overhang of the China/Taiwan situation, come at a time when the U.S. finds itself in the weakest fiscal situation since WWII.
The U.S. has never been more stretched and vulnerable, and at some point, this will have a serious impact on the MACRO scene.
Economic data continues to forecast "recession".
The ball is in the BULL's court and it will soon be time for them to step up and defend their position. A 'break' of support opens up a completely different set of circumstances on the technical front.
Final Thoughts
Once sentiment sours, NOTHING is going to change that downward price action. Plenty is going on now that keeps the algorithms in control and why the volatility is ramped up. Headlines out of Israel, Drone attacks in Iraq, Navy warship intercepts Iranian missiles (U.S. policy errors have consequences), D.C. dysfunction, and higher Treasury yields are all impacting short-term sentiment.
I've come to find that in most cases market "reactions" were consistent with what the "charts" are implying. Simply because they are giving us the pulse of all of the emotions that are present. Any investor that isn't using the "technical aspects" of the investment landscape as part of their strategy is coming to the gunfight with a knife. You are destined to fail.
I don't care about the reasons for the volatility and how the market is acting. I let price action and sentiment be my arbiters rather than headlines. To that end, I can uncover strong stocks, and these "stronger" (winning) stocks have remained VERY resilient in this poor backdrop. These along with others are the names to be involved in now. There is a BULL market in this mix BUT it is VERY selective.
https://seekingalpha...-band-stretched
My Wall Street View: The Rubber Band Is Stretched
Oct. 21, 2023 2:40 AM ET
Fear & Greed Trader
Summary
Dysfunction in D.C., consumer confidence, labor strife, higher wages, higher interest rates, and geopolitical turmoil are threats to a "soft landing" and the U.S. economy in general.
Ukraine, and now Israel, along with the continuing overhang of the China/Taiwan situation, come at a time when the U.S. finds itself in the weakest fiscal situation since WWII.
The U.S. has never been more stretched and vulnerable, and at some point, this will have a serious impact on the MACRO scene.
Economic data continues to forecast "recession".
The ball is in the BULL's court and it will soon be time for them to step up and defend their position. A 'break' of support opens up a completely different set of circumstances on the technical front.
Final Thoughts
Once sentiment sours, NOTHING is going to change that downward price action. Plenty is going on now that keeps the algorithms in control and why the volatility is ramped up. Headlines out of Israel, Drone attacks in Iraq, Navy warship intercepts Iranian missiles (U.S. policy errors have consequences), D.C. dysfunction, and higher Treasury yields are all impacting short-term sentiment.
I've come to find that in most cases market "reactions" were consistent with what the "charts" are implying. Simply because they are giving us the pulse of all of the emotions that are present. Any investor that isn't using the "technical aspects" of the investment landscape as part of their strategy is coming to the gunfight with a knife. You are destined to fail.
I don't care about the reasons for the volatility and how the market is acting. I let price action and sentiment be my arbiters rather than headlines. To that end, I can uncover strong stocks, and these "stronger" (winning) stocks have remained VERY resilient in this poor backdrop. These along with others are the names to be involved in now. There is a BULL market in this mix BUT it is VERY selective.
https://seekingalpha...-band-stretched
Surging Deficits - The Bear's New Meme
Powell Spooks the Market
https://realinvestme...bears-new-meme/
#10
dTraderB
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Posted 22 October 2023 - 05:20 PM
S&P Breaks Below 200-Day Moving Average: It's Going to be a Big Volatile Ride
Jayanthi Gopalakrishnan | October 20, 2023 at 06:33 PM
REGIONAL BANKS FALL AS YIELDS RISE. Regional banks, as well as the big banks, have been feeling the pain of higher interest rates. Price levels are close to where they were in May when the regional bank fiasco occurred.
https://stockcharts....moving-342.html
Jayanthi Gopalakrishnan | October 20, 2023 at 06:33 PM
REGIONAL BANKS FALL AS YIELDS RISE. Regional banks, as well as the big banks, have been feeling the pain of higher interest rates. Price levels are close to where they were in May when the regional bank fiasco occurred.
https://stockcharts....moving-342.html
