Extremely bearish sentiment. There will be a bounce this week but more likely ES trades below 4000 before a sustainable reversal
In Mark's poll I voted UP ON MONDAY
REVERSAL after this "Selling Stampede: door to 4000 open"
Started by
dTraderB
, Oct 29 2023 04:53 PM
267 replies to this topic
#2
dTraderB
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Posted 29 October 2023 - 04:54 PM
"....The party ended there for the BULLS. The combined losses for the S&P 500 in the last 3 days of trading tallied 3%. While the NASDAQ Composite fell 3.9%. Support levels were taken out, and the entire market ended the week in an extremely oversold condition....
"....The S&P 500 has lost ground in eight out of the last nine trading days, and ten out of the last 12, as a selling stampede has gripped the equity market. Many analysts had the 4200 level as their line in the sand. When that went by the wayside in this week's selloff, the selling picked up.
No one knows when the selling will abate but the door to S&P 4000 has now opened. This is not the type of market to wander aimlessly by "hoping" and "guessing" what to do next. Investors without a plan are now finding out just how difficult this backdrop is.
Final Thoughts
This "dip" has now morphed into a "correction" for the NASDAQ (-12%), while the S&P has now joined in with a 10+% decline. The Russell 2000 small caps have been in their own BEAR market for a while.
In a recent 5-day period investors witnessed Crude oil rally 9+%. 10-year Treasury yields have been on a one-way move for what seems like forever now. In that same period, the 10-year Treasury yield rose 29 basis points and settled right near 5%
Finally, Gold. In the same five trading days, the metal rallied 5.5% breaking above two key resistance levels and the downtrend that has been in place since the Spring.
By themselves, these moves are big, but the fact that they've all occurred in the same five-day period is extraordinary. Bespoke Investment Group;
There have only been two other periods where gold and crude oil each rallied more than 5% while the 10-year yield jumped more than 25 basis points. The first was in August 1990 following Iraq's invasion of Kuwait which led up to the first Gulf War, while the second period was during the Financial Crisis when there were three separate occurrences (September 2008, January 2009, and March 2009).
I'll leave everyone with this;
"There's something happening here, but what it is ain't exactly clear." Buffalo Springfield
https://seekingalpha...ssess-pros-cons
"....The S&P 500 has lost ground in eight out of the last nine trading days, and ten out of the last 12, as a selling stampede has gripped the equity market. Many analysts had the 4200 level as their line in the sand. When that went by the wayside in this week's selloff, the selling picked up.
No one knows when the selling will abate but the door to S&P 4000 has now opened. This is not the type of market to wander aimlessly by "hoping" and "guessing" what to do next. Investors without a plan are now finding out just how difficult this backdrop is.
Final Thoughts
This "dip" has now morphed into a "correction" for the NASDAQ (-12%), while the S&P has now joined in with a 10+% decline. The Russell 2000 small caps have been in their own BEAR market for a while.
In a recent 5-day period investors witnessed Crude oil rally 9+%. 10-year Treasury yields have been on a one-way move for what seems like forever now. In that same period, the 10-year Treasury yield rose 29 basis points and settled right near 5%
Finally, Gold. In the same five trading days, the metal rallied 5.5% breaking above two key resistance levels and the downtrend that has been in place since the Spring.
By themselves, these moves are big, but the fact that they've all occurred in the same five-day period is extraordinary. Bespoke Investment Group;
There have only been two other periods where gold and crude oil each rallied more than 5% while the 10-year yield jumped more than 25 basis points. The first was in August 1990 following Iraq's invasion of Kuwait which led up to the first Gulf War, while the second period was during the Financial Crisis when there were three separate occurrences (September 2008, January 2009, and March 2009).
I'll leave everyone with this;
"There's something happening here, but what it is ain't exactly clear." Buffalo Springfield
https://seekingalpha...ssess-pros-cons
#3
dTraderB
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Posted 29 October 2023 - 04:55 PM
Tom McClellan (@McClellanOsc) posted at 11:30 PM on Fri, Oct 27, 2023:
Only 14 stocks in the Nasdaq 100 are above their 100-day simple moving averages. This can go lower, but it is officially "pretty darned low". https://t.co/LfC5t6riKr
(https://x.com/McClel...2950123794?s=03)
Only 14 stocks in the Nasdaq 100 are above their 100-day simple moving averages. This can go lower, but it is officially "pretty darned low". https://t.co/LfC5t6riKr
(https://x.com/McClel...2950123794?s=03)
#4
dTraderB
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Posted 29 October 2023 - 04:55 PM
Tom McClellan (@McClellanOsc) posted at 1:12 PM on Sat, Oct 28, 2023:
This week's NAAIM survey number is the lowest since the October 2022 low. https://t.co/ZyPhOBshGg
(https://x.com/McClel...9511808420?s=03)
#5
dTraderB
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Posted 29 October 2023 - 04:56 PM
Tom McClellan (@McClellanOsc) posted at 0:46 PM on Sat, Oct 28, 2023:
When there is an accelerated move, the moment of the 50-200MA cross often marks a reversal point for prices. Also per my 2011 study at https://t.co/K5rm7F5ku3, owning the golden cross is barely better than buy and hold. https://t.co/FsQRkGSLbX
(https://x.com/McClel...1660106186?s=03)
Tom McClellan (@McClellanOsc) posted at 1:12 PM on Sat, Oct 28, 2023:
This week's NAAIM survey number is the lowest since the October 2022 low. https://t.co/ZyPhOBshGg
(https://x.com/McClel...9511808420?s=03)
#6
dTraderB
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Posted 29 October 2023 - 04:59 PM
Packed week:
"...China's embattled property developer Evergrande will be under the spotlight again following media reports last week that it has held talks with creditors who opposed its restructuring plan.
Asian markets on Monday will also give their initial reaction to news over the weekend of an expected U.S.-Sino summit between presidents Joe Biden and Xi Jinping next month. Tech and chip stocks could be particularly sensitive.
On top of that, the U.S. earnings season rolls on, Japan's corporate reporting floodgates open, and month-end flows across all asset classes could be powerful. Oh, and there is the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on Wednesday too.
Investors in Asia wade into that sea of event risk in slightly better shape than might immediately appear to be the case, having been hit hard by the surge in U.S. bond yields and widespread tightening of tightening of financial conditions.
But the MSCI emerging market index and Asia ex-Japan index's falls of around 0.6% last week were notably shallower than the MSCI Work index's 2% slide.
Their falls in October are both on track to be around 3.5%, not quite as bad as the MSCI World's and S&P 500's respective declines of 4.2% and 5.4%. Perhaps a period of relative outperformance for Asian and emerging market assets lies ahead?
China's recent economic and market signals, at least, are brightening a little.
Japan's bonds and currency remain under intense scrutiny ahead of Tuesday's Bank of Japan decision and guidance. The yen rebounded around 0.5% against the dollar on Friday for its best day in three weeks, and the 10-year Japanese Government Bond yield eased a couple of basis points.
But the yen and JGBs go into the meeting very much on the weak side. The BOJ is inching closer to ending negative interest rates and phasing out ultra-accommodative monetary policy, but probably not this week, even though inflation in the capital Tokyo unexpectedly accelerated in October."
-- REUTERS
"...China's embattled property developer Evergrande will be under the spotlight again following media reports last week that it has held talks with creditors who opposed its restructuring plan.
Asian markets on Monday will also give their initial reaction to news over the weekend of an expected U.S.-Sino summit between presidents Joe Biden and Xi Jinping next month. Tech and chip stocks could be particularly sensitive.
On top of that, the U.S. earnings season rolls on, Japan's corporate reporting floodgates open, and month-end flows across all asset classes could be powerful. Oh, and there is the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on Wednesday too.
Investors in Asia wade into that sea of event risk in slightly better shape than might immediately appear to be the case, having been hit hard by the surge in U.S. bond yields and widespread tightening of tightening of financial conditions.
But the MSCI emerging market index and Asia ex-Japan index's falls of around 0.6% last week were notably shallower than the MSCI Work index's 2% slide.
Their falls in October are both on track to be around 3.5%, not quite as bad as the MSCI World's and S&P 500's respective declines of 4.2% and 5.4%. Perhaps a period of relative outperformance for Asian and emerging market assets lies ahead?
China's recent economic and market signals, at least, are brightening a little.
Japan's bonds and currency remain under intense scrutiny ahead of Tuesday's Bank of Japan decision and guidance. The yen rebounded around 0.5% against the dollar on Friday for its best day in three weeks, and the 10-year Japanese Government Bond yield eased a couple of basis points.
But the yen and JGBs go into the meeting very much on the weak side. The BOJ is inching closer to ending negative interest rates and phasing out ultra-accommodative monetary policy, but probably not this week, even though inflation in the capital Tokyo unexpectedly accelerated in October."
-- REUTERS
#7
dTraderB
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Posted 29 October 2023 - 05:09 PM
Helen's poll bullish 54-46
... but this is next 100 SPX points. In this wild market SPX could rise 100 points in 3 days & then drop more than 100...
Helene Meisler (@hmeisler) posted at 7:00 AM on Sat, Oct 28, 2023:
Saturday Poll.
The next 100 points for the S&P?
(https://x.com/hmeisl...2409581679?s=03)
... but this is next 100 SPX points. In this wild market SPX could rise 100 points in 3 days & then drop more than 100...
Helene Meisler (@hmeisler) posted at 7:00 AM on Sat, Oct 28, 2023:
Saturday Poll.
The next 100 points for the S&P?
(https://x.com/hmeisl...2409581679?s=03)
#8
dTraderB
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Posted 29 October 2023 - 05:13 PM
This posted last week:
Jeffrey A. Hirsch (@AlmanacTrader) posted at 4:30 PM on Wed, Oct 25, 2023:
Late October Low Lines Up
Ive been banging my seasonal weakness drum through Q3 warning of Octoberphobia, volatility, late-October lows and turnarounds. Todays negative action aligns with that narrative. Best Six Months start next week. Rising 10-year yields, some notable
https://t.co/KFY2X5lgaU
(https://x.com/Almana...4432986467?s=03)
Jeffrey A. Hirsch (@AlmanacTrader) posted at 4:30 PM on Wed, Oct 25, 2023:
Late October Low Lines Up
Ive been banging my seasonal weakness drum through Q3 warning of Octoberphobia, volatility, late-October lows and turnarounds. Todays negative action aligns with that narrative. Best Six Months start next week. Rising 10-year yields, some notable
https://t.co/KFY2X5lgaU
(https://x.com/Almana...4432986467?s=03)
#9
dTraderB
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Posted 29 October 2023 - 05:32 PM
ES 4151 HEDGE SHORT
#10
pdx5
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I want return OF my money more than return ON my money
Posted 29 October 2023 - 09:32 PM
SYMBOL PRICE CHG %CHG
*HSI
17,282.36 -116.37 -0.67
*NIKKEI
30,664.3 -327.39 -1.06
*STI
3,056.12 -5.73 -0.19
*ASX 200
6,796.8 -30.1 -0.44
*SHANGHAI
3,005.18 -12.6 -0.42
Europe
FTSE 100
chart
SYMBOL PRICE CHG %CHG
*FTSE
7,291.28 -63.29 -0.86
*DAX
14,687.41 -43.64 -0.3
*CAC
6,795.38 UNCH UNCH
*AEX
714.25 UNCH UNCH
*STOXX
3,783.73 -50.95 -1.33
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