This year is not NORMAL so expect more volatility, swings ...
Wayne Whaley (@WayneWhaley1136) posted at 9:52 AM on Sat, Oct 28, 2023:
17 CONSECUTIVE POSITIVE OCTNOV TURNs. Define the OctNov Turn as the last 2 trading days of Oct & first 2 of Nov which are the first 4 days of next wk. The S&P was down 2.5% last wk. The last 17 times, the wk before the OctNov Turn was down more than 1%, the Turn was positive. https://t.co/1AA3xFKmDA
REVERSAL after this "Selling Stampede: door to 4000 open"
Started by
dTraderB
, Oct 29 2023 04:53 PM
267 replies to this topic
#12
dTraderB
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Posted 30 October 2023 - 05:56 AM
"And In adherence to the trading philosophy that 'When the Market goes against the trend, go with the market', if this setup were to incur a failure next week, I would view the traditional 'End of Year' rally to be in jeopardy."
This year is not NORMAL so expect more volatility, swings ...
Wayne Whaley (@WayneWhaley1136) posted at 9:52 AM on Sat, Oct 28, 2023:
17 CONSECUTIVE POSITIVE OCTNOV TURNs. Define the OctNov Turn as the last 2 trading days of Oct & first 2 of Nov which are the first 4 days of next wk. The S&P was down 2.5% last wk. The last 17 times, the wk before the OctNov Turn was down more than 1%, the Turn was positive. https://t.co/1AA3xFKmDA
#13
dTraderB
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Posted 30 October 2023 - 05:59 AM
Lisa Abramowicz (@lisaabramowicz1) posted at 5:19 AM on Mon, Oct 30, 2023:
"If the SPX closes below 4288 on Tuesday, it will be its third consecutive monthly decline. It hasnt been down four straight months since 2011 and hasnt been down four straight months ending in November since 1946:" BTIG's Jonathan Krinsky
(https://x.com/lisaab...9628085417?s=03)
"If the SPX closes below 4288 on Tuesday, it will be its third consecutive monthly decline. It hasnt been down four straight months since 2011 and hasnt been down four straight months ending in November since 1946:" BTIG's Jonathan Krinsky
(https://x.com/lisaab...9628085417?s=03)
#14
dTraderB
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Posted 30 October 2023 - 06:00 AM
These AUCTIONS are far more important than I have ever seen...
Mohamed A. El-Erian (@elerianm) posted at 1:03 AM on Mon, Oct 30, 2023:
Typically, the broader financial #markets don't pay much attention to the @USTreasury's quarterly refunding announcement. However, this is changing, as noted by Bloomberg, due to the growing concerns surrounding who will purchase the larger volume of debt being issued and at what
https://t.co/x3jjNzrsV7
Mohamed A. El-Erian (@elerianm) posted at 1:03 AM on Mon, Oct 30, 2023:
Typically, the broader financial #markets don't pay much attention to the @USTreasury's quarterly refunding announcement. However, this is changing, as noted by Bloomberg, due to the growing concerns surrounding who will purchase the larger volume of debt being issued and at what
https://t.co/x3jjNzrsV7
Lisa Abramowicz (@lisaabramowicz1) posted at 5:19 AM on Mon, Oct 30, 2023:
"If the SPX closes below 4288 on Tuesday, it will be its third consecutive monthly decline. It hasnt been down four straight months since 2011 and hasnt been down four straight months ending in November since 1946:" BTIG's Jonathan Krinsky
(https://x.com/lisaab...9628085417?s=03)
#15
dTraderB
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Posted 30 October 2023 - 06:20 AM
Relatively quiet DATA Monday but it rapidky escalates to a deluge...note AUCTION results - important now!
Key developments that should provide more direction to U.S. markets later on Monday:
Dallas Fed manufacturing survey
* U.S. corporate earnings: McDonald's, Loews, Western Digital, FMC, Arista Networks, Welltower, VF, Revvity, Simon Property, Healthpeak, Arch Capital, ON Semiconductor
* U.S. Treasury auctions 3-, 6-month bills
Key developments that should provide more direction to U.S. markets later on Monday:
Dallas Fed manufacturing survey
* U.S. corporate earnings: McDonald's, Loews, Western Digital, FMC, Arista Networks, Welltower, VF, Revvity, Simon Property, Healthpeak, Arch Capital, ON Semiconductor
* U.S. Treasury auctions 3-, 6-month bills
#16
dTraderB
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Posted 30 October 2023 - 06:25 AM
Another good bounce in CHINESE & HSI markets helping add a few tenths of a % to OCTOBER's net account return.
Would like to add at least 0.4% last 2 days of October but prefer to hedge more & wait for a better bullish scenario to risk more...
JC PARETS:
Did you know that every single dollar made in the Dow Jones Industrial Average since 1950 has been earned during November through April?
That's right.
If you hypothetically decided to buy the Dow Jones Industrial Average at the beginning of May every year since 1950 and then sold it on the last day of October, you would have made virtually no money over the past 73 years.
Had you done the opposite, and bought the Dow at the beginning of November and sold at the end of April, a $10,000 investment in 1950 would be worth close to $1.2M today.
I would encourage everyone to go back and study these cycles.
And I don't say this because I expect anyone to actually invest this way. I certainly don't.
This is just to put human behavior into context.
During different times of the year we behave differently. We wear different clothes, we go to different types of places and we hang out with different people.
If you think those major life changes don't impact the decisions we make in the market, then you must not know humans.
This week begins what is historically the best 6 month period of the year, where practically every single dollar has been made in the Dow since 1950.
It's also the beginning of the best 3 month period of the year (Nov - Jan).
This is the sweet spot as we enter the historically bullish election year season.
How are you prepared for this part of the cycle?
Would like to add at least 0.4% last 2 days of October but prefer to hedge more & wait for a better bullish scenario to risk more...
JC PARETS:
Did you know that every single dollar made in the Dow Jones Industrial Average since 1950 has been earned during November through April?
That's right.
If you hypothetically decided to buy the Dow Jones Industrial Average at the beginning of May every year since 1950 and then sold it on the last day of October, you would have made virtually no money over the past 73 years.
Had you done the opposite, and bought the Dow at the beginning of November and sold at the end of April, a $10,000 investment in 1950 would be worth close to $1.2M today.
I would encourage everyone to go back and study these cycles.
And I don't say this because I expect anyone to actually invest this way. I certainly don't.
This is just to put human behavior into context.
During different times of the year we behave differently. We wear different clothes, we go to different types of places and we hang out with different people.
If you think those major life changes don't impact the decisions we make in the market, then you must not know humans.
This week begins what is historically the best 6 month period of the year, where practically every single dollar has been made in the Dow since 1950.
It's also the beginning of the best 3 month period of the year (Nov - Jan).
This is the sweet spot as we enter the historically bullish election year season.
How are you prepared for this part of the cycle?
#17
dTraderB
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Posted 30 October 2023 - 06:29 AM
IMPORTANT: this is current FED THINK... coming from the best-informed-FED reporter:
Higher Bond Yields Could End the Feds Historic Rate Rises
By Nick Timiraos
"Federal Reserve officials have said for more than a year that beating inflation could require them to hold interest rates higher for longer than investors expected.
The swift run-up in long-term Treasury yieldsto around 5% from 4% in early Augustsuggests Wall Street now agrees. As a result, borrowing costs for U.S. businesses and households are rising in ways that could allow the Fed to suspend its historic run of interest-rate increases.
Because a resilient economy threatens to slow recent progress on inflation, the impact of higher yields on the economy is set to feature prominently in deliberations at the Feds two-day policy meeting that begins Tuesday. The central bank, which lifted its benchmark short-term rate to a 22-year high in July, is expected to hold it steady this week. Since March 2022, the Fed has raised interest rates at the fastest pace in four decades to combat soaring inflation.
Higher yields can tighten financial conditions through lower stock valuations, a stronger dollar and wider spreads between Treasury yields and private lending rates."
-WSJ
Higher Bond Yields Could End the Feds Historic Rate Rises
By Nick Timiraos
"Federal Reserve officials have said for more than a year that beating inflation could require them to hold interest rates higher for longer than investors expected.
The swift run-up in long-term Treasury yieldsto around 5% from 4% in early Augustsuggests Wall Street now agrees. As a result, borrowing costs for U.S. businesses and households are rising in ways that could allow the Fed to suspend its historic run of interest-rate increases.
Because a resilient economy threatens to slow recent progress on inflation, the impact of higher yields on the economy is set to feature prominently in deliberations at the Feds two-day policy meeting that begins Tuesday. The central bank, which lifted its benchmark short-term rate to a 22-year high in July, is expected to hold it steady this week. Since March 2022, the Fed has raised interest rates at the fastest pace in four decades to combat soaring inflation.
Higher yields can tighten financial conditions through lower stock valuations, a stronger dollar and wider spreads between Treasury yields and private lending rates."
-WSJ
#18
dTraderB
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Posted 30 October 2023 - 06:33 AM
WEDNESDAY to 4pm FRIDAY will be very busy:
AAPL also
The ADP private payroll report for October on Wednesday is expected to say companies added 142,500 jobs, up from 89,000 in the prior reading. The governments nonfarm payrolls on Friday are expected to come in around 192,000 for October, down from 336,000 the prior month.
Whats Next: The Fed will release its interest rate policy decision on Wednesday at 2 p.m. Eastern time. While a pause is largely expected, focus will turn to Chair Jerome Powells comments and any clues as to whether another rate hike may still be on the table.
AAPL also
The ADP private payroll report for October on Wednesday is expected to say companies added 142,500 jobs, up from 89,000 in the prior reading. The governments nonfarm payrolls on Friday are expected to come in around 192,000 for October, down from 336,000 the prior month.
Whats Next: The Fed will release its interest rate policy decision on Wednesday at 2 p.m. Eastern time. While a pause is largely expected, focus will turn to Chair Jerome Powells comments and any clues as to whether another rate hike may still be on the table.
#19
K Wave
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Posted 30 October 2023 - 07:17 AM
META back test of 300 done....
NOW we see.....
Failure of bears to hold 300 area would be indication of weakness on their part....
But if they DO hold here, and go take out that swing low...LOB
The strength of Government lies in the people's ignorance, and the Government knows this, and will therefore always oppose true enlightenment. - Leo Tolstoy
#20
K Wave
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Posted 30 October 2023 - 07:21 AM
One last flush needed on TLT to wipe out all those early Calls?
85 still the big pivot zone...bulls failed to get through again....
https://www.zerohedg...ts-hit-all-time
The strength of Government lies in the people's ignorance, and the Government knows this, and will therefore always oppose true enlightenment. - Leo Tolstoy
