115 replies to this topic

[dTraderB]

LOW OIL & GAS prices bullish.

Patrick De Haan ⛽📊 (@GasBuddyGuy) posted at 3:09 PM on Sun, Dec 10, 2023:


BREAKING: #GasPrices have extended their decline for the 12th straight week. Thats three months straight that the national average has declined every. single. week.
(https://x.com/GasBud...6749284684?s=03)

[dTraderB]

Adam Mancini (@AdamMancini4) posted at 0:01 PM on Sat, Dec 09, 2023:
Big Week for #ES_F: FOMC, CPI and it closed right at its trendline from the 2022 high after 2 weeks of basing. Expect fireworks

Plan: 4630-40=support. As long as it holds, breakout to 4682, 4710 in play. Dip there before 4810 target

4630 fails though, we begin sell to 4565 1st https://t.co/lBPbcF2OiM
(https://x.com/AdamMa...2194943241?s=03)

[dTraderB]

BULLISH for 7th consecutive week!
Helene Meisler (@hmeisler) posted at 8:00 AM on Sat, Dec 09, 2023:
Saturday Poll.

The next 100 points for the S&P?

(https://x.com/hmeisl...0995610705?s=03)

[dTraderB]

Closed ES HEDGE LONG 4663
Will buy lower

HOLDING 1 NQ HEDGE LONG

[dTraderB]

GOOD for equities?

REUTERS: When higher US yields and dollar is a good thing

Looked at through a 'good news is good news' prism, the rise in Treasury yields and the dollar on Friday should not be a drag on Asian and emerging markets, like they often are.



The two-year U.S. yield posted its biggest rise since June after data showed that the unemployment rate fell to 3.7%. Any lingering hopes for a rate cut this week quickly vanished, and the first fully priced rate cut was pushed back to May next year from March.



If the S&P 500 and Nasdaq's rise on Friday to their highest levels since early 2022 lifts most Asian markets on Monday, Chinese assets may struggle after figures this weekend showed that deflationary pressures intensified in November.



Consumer prices fell 0.5% both from a year earlier and compared with October, much deeper than the median forecasts in a Reuters poll of 0.1% declines for both. The year-on-year decline was the steepest since November 2020.

[dTraderB]

The Asian economic and policy calendar is light on Monday - money supply and a quarterly business survey index from Japan, and industrial production figures from Malaysia are all investors have to get their teeth into.



For the rest of the week, interest rate decisions from Taiwan and the Philippines, inflation data from India, and that data dump from China on Friday are the main regional calendar events.



But market sentiment and direction will largely be driven by the key events in developed economies. They include policy meetings from the Bank of England and European Central Bank, U.S. inflation, and the one everyone is waiting for - the Federal Reserve's policy decision on Wednesday.



The Fed is widely expected to keep its fed funds target range steady at 5.25-5.50%, so all eyes will be on the accompanying statement, policymakers' revised projections, and Chair Jerome Powell's press conference.

GOOD for equities?
REUTERS: When higher US yields and dollar is a good thing
Looked at through a 'good news is good news' prism, the rise in Treasury yields and the dollar on Friday should not be a drag on Asian and emerging markets, like they often are.
The two-year U.S. yield posted its biggest rise since June after data showed that the unemployment rate fell to 3.7%. Any lingering hopes for a rate cut this week quickly vanished, and the first fully priced rate cut was pushed back to May next year from March.
If the S&P 500 and Nasdaq's rise on Friday to their highest levels since early 2022 lifts most Asian markets on Monday, Chinese assets may struggle after figures this weekend showed that deflationary pressures intensified in November.
Consumer prices fell 0.5% both from a year earlier and compared with October, much deeper than the median forecasts in a Reuters poll of 0.1% declines for both. The year-on-year decline was the steepest since November 2020.

[dTraderB]

Technical Check: Last week we got another new YTD high (clearing the 31 July high, and last Friday’s high). This along with an upward sloping 200-day average is generally a good sign. However, we are now in the process of contending with that major overhead resistance zone (which by the way, saw a number of false breaks on both sides around the turn of 2021/22). The other point to note is that the rebound in breadth has stalled (FYI: defensives and commodity sectors are the weak spots) — contrast that to 2021 where it was a broad-based rally.


Source: @Callum_Thomas using Market Charts

[dTraderB]

SENTIMENT TRADER:

A significant surge in new highs
Key points:

The percentage of S&P 500 stocks registering a 21-day high surged above 54%
Similar expansions in new highs led to additional upside momentum for stocks
Value/cyclical-oriented groups like Financials, Industrials, and Materials drove the expansion
Increased participation is a positive development for the market

Just when we thought the S&P 500's fourth-best month in over a decade was reason enough to cheer, the world's most benchmarked index kicked off December by notching the highest expansion in 21-day highs since the fall of 2022.

When the percentage of S&P 500 stocks registering a 21-day high exceeds 54%, like now, it's a good indication of a bullish trend backdrop, which is why this breadth indicator is a component in my TCTM Composite Thrust Model.

The previous signal triggered an alert in October 2022, leading to an 8.8% gain in the S&P 500 over the subsequent six months.

https://mailchi.mp/5...42?e=b27dc45da1

[dTraderB]

Good column in BARRONS:
The Fed and Markets Disagree on Rate Cuts. Here’s Why.
It’s one of the biggest weeks of the year for interest rates as the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and Bank of England all deliver decisions.

To be sure, rates won’t actually change this week. But the stakes are high, and expectations are shifting fast for next year.

After Friday’s strong payrolls data, markets delayed the pricing of the first Fed cut to May from March. Strangely, stocks also advanced, perhaps because traders don’t expect Fed rates to hurt the economy that much.

The dollar also rose, in no small part because the U.S. economy is looking more robust than Europe’s. Europe was chasing the Fed as interest rates rose earlier this year, now it looks possible that the BOE and the ECB get ahead of the Fed on the way down.

Nevertheless, expect all three central banks to push back against expectations for early rate cuts. The Fed and the ECB publish new forecasts that may give some hints about reductions, but the rhetoric will almost certainly focus on how high rates need to stay.

The Fed and its peers are well aware of what they don’t know now. Inflation has slowed very quickly, and that’s a little bit of a mystery. Unemployment remains historically low. Wage growth and services inflation are still relatively hot. On the other hand, it’s also not clear how much past rate hikes are going to weigh on the economy in the next few months.

When inflation started picking up two years ago, central banks thought they knew what was happening, and that it would be transitory. Now that inflation is coming down, they are more humble. And in that situation, they’ll want to err on the side of higher rates to prevent inflation from taking off again.

—Brian Swint

[dTraderB]

"Key developments that should provide more direction to U.S. markets later on Monday:
New York Fed's survey of consumer inflation expectations.
U.S. Nov employment trends
U.S. Treasury auctions 3- and 10-year notes, 3- and 6-month bills
U.S. corporate earnings: Oracle, Blue Bird, Inotiv, Caseys General Stores" - REUTERS