115 replies to this topic

[dTraderB]

Solidly above 100 & holding
Above it
https://www.mcoscill...t_breadth_data/

[dTraderB]

https://www.marketin...llan-oscillator

[dTraderB]

Building momentum, may break out
Fast & strong to challenge NQ 16400, 16450...
Addingvan xtra lot to my DAYTRADE NQ LONGS

[12SPX]

I'm back, exciting trip to Vegas with tons of walking... It is an interesting place gotta say and very different from the old days of reasonable prices.  Market is looking very interesting as the magnificent 7 appears to be all down but we've got the ndx up.  Maybe were finally starting to see some participation but with call options this pricey I find that hard to believe....  Even volatility is up but was enough to add to my ndx short bringing my average up to 16228 and March ES 3642.  Still holding my Dec at 4550.....Market is sitting at an interesting place even with bond yields much higher, volume is weak and everything just seems fishy here and desperate, or maybe its just because I'm tired from my trip back lol!!  We'll see how this week goes as it will likely be another flat one in the end with lots of volatility. 

[dTraderB]

What a forecast!
", for now, I think a “reasonable” target at this time would be the 4883-5163SPX region.

But, first, I am still of the belief that we can see an intervening b-wave pullback before the fireworks to the upside begin in earnest. And, since we do not yet have a confirmed top to this current rally, I am guesstimating that the b-wave pullback can take us down to the 4300-4400SPX region. Of course, since retracements are based upon a percentage of the rally structure which preceded such retracement, we cannot provide specific guidance to that exact target region until we have a confirmed top in place evidenced by a decline below 4546SPX, the low struck this past week.

Some of you may be asking yourself at this time (as I hear this question a lot) about the fact that the wave [5] will be larger than wave [3]. Well, again, this is where we go back to our rules and guidelines for Elliott Wave analysis. The rule is that the 3rd wave cannot be the shortest wave within the 5-wave structure. But, it certainly does not have to be the longest. So, the path I am setting forth clearly does not break any Elliott Wave rules.

In summary, the move over 4607.07 on Friday confirmed my suspicion that the decline into the 4100SPX region was not the start of a major move lower. Rather, it suggests that there are two paths we will now track which point us north of 4800SPX in 2024. Moreover, we will still be watching the nature of the next pullback to determine if we have to drop to the 4000-4100SPX region again before that rally begins in earnest, or if the next pullback will be corrective, which will likely hold the 4300-4400SPX region, and then point us to 4800+ sooner rather than later."
More here:
https://seekingalpha...rket-move-ahead

[dTraderB]

GOOD for equities?

REUTERS: When higher US yields and dollar is a good thing

Looked at through a 'good news is good news' prism, the rise in Treasury yields and the dollar on Friday should not be a drag on Asian and emerging markets, like they often are.



The two-year U.S. yield posted its biggest rise since June after data showed that the unemployment rate fell to 3.7%. Any lingering hopes for a rate cut this week quickly vanished, and the first fully priced rate cut was pushed back to May next year from March.



If the S&P 500 and Nasdaq's rise on Friday to their highest levels since early 2022 lifts most Asian markets on Monday, Chinese assets may struggle after figures this weekend showed that deflationary pressures intensified in November.



Consumer prices fell 0.5% both from a year earlier and compared with October, much deeper than the median forecasts in a Reuters poll of 0.1% declines for both. The year-on-year decline was the steepest since November 2020.

[dTraderB]

WSJ: Tuesday is all about the inflation report, due at 8:30 a.m. ET. The consumer-price index is one of the last data points before the Federal Reserve's interest-rate decision on Wednesday afternoon. One key concern is whether stubborn underlying inflation could cloud the outlook for possible Fed cuts next year.

[dTraderB]

REUTERS: Tuesday's consumer price inflation update may not have to wow the gallery to keep the U.S. disinflation glow alive and persuade the Federal Reserve that its job is done.



With Fed policymakers starting their two-day meeting on Tuesday, the November CPI release drops right on to the table in front of them.



On the face of it, there may be no great thud.



Annual headline inflation is expected to have slipped back to 3.1%, its lowest since June, and the "core" rate, excluding food and energy, is forecast to remain stuck at 4.0%.



But economists say this seeming stasis may mask underlying disinflation momentum. Deutsche Bank points out that if core CPI comes in with gains of 0.3% over the month and 4.0% over the year, that would bring the six-month annualised rate as low as 2.8% - the first sub-3% reading since March 2021.

[dTraderB]

"China's markets were firmer too, meantime, as the country's leaders started a closed-door meeting on Monday to discuss economic targets and map out stimulus plans for 2024.
REUTERS: Tuesday's consumer price inflation update may not have to wow the gallery to keep the U.S. disinflation glow alive and persuade the Federal Reserve that its job is done.



With Fed policymakers starting their two-day meeting on Tuesday, the November CPI release drops right on to the table in front of them.



On the face of it, there may be no great thud.



Annual headline inflation is expected to have slipped back to 3.1%, its lowest since June, and the "core" rate, excluding food and energy, is forecast to remain stuck at 4.0%.



But economists say this seeming stasis may mask underlying disinflation momentum. Deutsche Bank points out that if core CPI comes in with gains of 0.3% over the month and 4.0% over the year, that would bring the six-month annualised rate as low as 2.8% - the first sub-3% reading since March 2021.

[dTraderB]

Key developments that should provide more direction to U.S. markets later on Tuesday:
U.S. Nov consumer price index, Cleveland Fed CPI cut, Nov NFIB small business survey, Federal Budget statement.
Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee starts 2-day meeting
U.S. Treasury auctions $21 billion of 30-year bonds
U.S. corporate earnings: Johnson Controls, Frequency Electronics, EMCORE, Champions Oncology, MamaMancini's