115 replies to this topic

[redfoliage2]

Fresh data indicating inflation still holding up - CPI MOM went up 1% from previous 0%; core CPI went up 0.3% from previous 0.2%.  I'd expect hawkish words from the Fed tomorrow.  Time to take profit today ...................

Edited by redfoliage2, 12 December 2023 - 08:39 AM.

[12SPX]

Well that was a fun inflation report.  You always know its going to turn out bad when you see the exuberance in the market going into the announcement bringing my average March short on the ndx to 16246, ES 4652.  Only time I like listening to CNBC is when Rick is talking as he's the only smart guy on there and especially with this new ticker as its the worst on the planet now lol!!  Rare him and Steve agree but I totally do that the only reason the rally is happening in bonds and stocks is because they "hope" the Fed will sound dovish and cut rates early.  Until there are signs of weakness coming there is no way so like I said volatility is going to remain.  Going to make the Fed meeting very interesting but I don't think anyone is going to get good news.  Besides all that volatility is at its lowest level since 2008 I believe, call options are insanely priced with puts having zero value as no one is worried and fundamentally were near old highs with interest rates way higher making current valuations way to high.  Unfortunately there are gaps below to be filled and eventually they will be!!  Gonna be an interesting end to the year....

[dTraderB]

Ole S Hansen (@Ole_S_Hansen) posted at 10:08 AM on Tue, Dec 12, 2023:

US YoY #CPI eased to 3.1% in November from 3.2% while the important core reading was unchanged at 4% YoY, despite seeing the MoM tick a bit higher. The so-called supercore, a measure watched by the Fed, meanwhile rose at one of the fastest monthly paces this year. #inflation https://t.co/QB4BEeJUnA
(https://x.com/Ole_S_...9242882306?s=03)

[12SPX]

Wow can't believe daily call option prices, no one is thinking the market could actually move lower....

[dTraderB]

NEW BRENT OIL LONG $73.85
Will add below 73.10

[dTraderB]

Will start new NQ HEDGE LONG position below
16400.
Holding 1 ES HEDGE LONG. WILL
ADD BELOW 4630

[dTraderB]

Amazing! Spent too much time watching SPY & QQQ option screens yesterday. Was tempted to add more PUTS or SELL CALLS but decided to wait until the next major resistance at 4710.

Wow can't believe daily call option prices, no one is thinking the market could actually move lower....

[redfoliage2]

Fresh data indicating inflation still holding up - CPI MOM went up 1% from previous 0%; core CPI went up 0.3% from previous 0.2%.  I'd expect hawkish words from the Fed tomorrow.  Time to take profit today ...................

The data just tell you prices have not gone down till it becomes negative, and the inflation is still going up.  That's what we see the prices in the stores still staying high or even higher.  The Fed will have to keep the Fed rate at the current level if not higher for much longer than many expecting .......................

Edited by redfoliage2, 12 December 2023 - 10:51 AM.

[Keepingcool]

what's kind of hilarious is that Powell's mistake with keeping interest rates too low too long that got us to new highs has totally been  worked out.   look, here we are at new highs with interest rates up 400 bps from that time period and national debt at, well lets just say mmt may not be the answer, and the risk to banks and pension funds has apparently totally disappeared and the record level bankruptcies cant be that big a deal and 'personal debt at crazy highs and many businesses struggling.  Ya wow, look at it go....makes perfect sense. 

New sustainable highs....yay

[12SPX]

Yup it's interesting...I just saw a chart showing Japan's debt level of 220% of GDP!!