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Posted 14 December 2023 - 05:38 PM
"Here are key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Friday:
China retail sales, unemployment, house prices, business investment, industrial production (November)
Japan flash PMIs (December)
Australia flash PMIs (December)"
Member
Posted 15 December 2023 - 06:29 AM
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Posted 15 December 2023 - 06:30 AM
Fed's 'buy everything' party roars on
Stocks are pricing for a Goldilocks-themed 2024 - one where growth slows, but not so badly as to tip the economy into recession - while bonds have embraced the prospect of the scale of rate cuts that usually bring with them a sharper slowdown.
Both cannot be right and 150 basis points of cuts look ambitious, given the labour market is robust, consumer spending is holding up nicely and financial conditions are already at their loosest since July, according to an index compiled by Goldman Sachs.
For now, no one is too bothered about the details. There is also the issue of the huge amount of cash simply parked on the sidelines in money market funds.
Data from the Investment Company Institute this week shows a total of nearly $6 trillion parked in money market funds. Some of that at least will, at some point, be looking for a home, one preferably with some yield attached.
-- REUTERS
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Posted 15 December 2023 - 09:11 AM
What a shocker that Williams just made the most common sense comment about interest rates that people are "getting ahead of themselves" thinking about hoping for all of these interest rate cuts, it will be all "about what the data says"!! Next year will be interesting as that is the shift we needed to see, it will be all about the data... Rolled my Dec short into my March short, first time since 1999 I have had to do that, and it brought it down a little but I added to March yesterday to so not to bad but new short average is 4643. Would like it up at a nice even 4650 but we'll see. My NDX short is at 16454... December expiration comes this morning and its nice to see I never had any losses for another year but the only real volatile month all year was November being up pretty strong but even that wasn't that bad. This is also the reason I still love the traditional every 3rd Friday expiration cycle the most as I think its mostly the youngins that like the monthly, weekly's and now the daily's lol. I'm surprised the markets not down more here to get closer to the 4700 level but you never know what it will be when the calculation comes out and the reason why I always say to be out of your trades before the cash open as I've even seen +- 1% moves lol!! Nonetheless gonna be fun to be moving into January as I do believe volatility is going to be much higher next year as the battle of the slowing economy starts coming in....
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Posted 15 December 2023 - 09:39 AM
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Posted 15 December 2023 - 09:40 AM
NQ wants to go up! ES down....
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Posted 15 December 2023 - 09:41 AM
NQ wants to go up! ES down....
Member
Posted 15 December 2023 - 09:48 AM
Guess it did want to be closer to 4700 with the sell off at the open lol!! Took $6 profits on my remaining Dec 4775 afternoon calls, now onto January.....Which btw I realized I had a brain fart moment yesterday when I woke up and saw the calls higher lol. I was thinking it was on the SP500 cash afternoon expiration which would have been cash calls but it wasn't it was on the March contract lol!!! Still, that trade I made $24 total on the trades the last two days lol!! Also took off the 4800 calls for a $10 profit....
Member
Posted 15 December 2023 - 09:59 AM
Weitd. Opex related?
NQ wants to go up! ES down....
Edited by dTraderB, 15 December 2023 - 10:01 AM.
Member
Posted 15 December 2023 - 10:03 AM
Okay have to go with what I'm really thinking so doubling down on my NDX short to bring my average way up to 16627 and smoothed out my ES short to 4650.... BTW it is almost shocking how much premium has already come off my Jan call premiums in one day but closer options are still way to bullish....
