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#1 blustar

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Posted 02 January 2024 - 10:46 AM

All the cycle/wave structures I'm seeing point to a low on January 5; whether we see a double bottom or a much larger corrective low is inconclusive at this time. Last week saw the Russell 2000 and Dow Transports lag badly, creating a case of intermarket bearish divergence. 

 

The X wave was 4 TD's long and the Y wave 5 TD's long, so this alone points to a Thursday/Friday conclusion of this portion of the expected 10 week low sell-off based on the Balance of Waves Theory with Wave Z.

 

Jan 16th has strong overhead resistance at 4832 SPX, and if that is the January target we may or could see the 10 week/8-10 TD trough into as low as the low 4630's SPX later this week. So far we have seen an a-b-c type of drop, mostly in the tech sector, with the DJI and XMI strongly opposing this drop.

 

The naval battles in the Red Sea heated up over the weekend. Everything I'm reading suggests "war battles" to intensify as we go through January and February and especially into March. 

 

The stock market is getting way too overheated, much like we saw 4 years ago right before the COVID drop! A false flag followed by a quick stock market collapse could allow the FED to inject more money into the system, instead of letting a natural collapse of say 55/60% occur, which would normally be expected in the kind of situation we are currently in.

 

The BRICS nations are ganging up on the US Dollar as the world's reserve currency, especially dealing with the oil trade. A quick rise in the dollar due to a quick 35-40% drop in the stock market would likely be met by increased injections of capital and send the stock market much much higher into late next year. $4,000 an ounce gold this year or next is not out of the question if this scenario plays out, in my opinion, accompanied by much higher inflation to the tune of 33-50% over the course of the next 2 years or so.


Blessings,

 

blu

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#2 blustar

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Posted 02 January 2024 - 01:12 PM

This cycle low was dominate on the QQQ and not the other indexes, so we might have set a low today there. A double bottom is still expected minimum Thursday on the SPX near 4730. Friday next week could hit 4929/30 SPX. I am still bullish, but this monster is getting long in the tooth!


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blu

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#3 qqqqtrdr

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Posted 02 January 2024 - 03:25 PM

I play medium term trades since I have a day job, but I agree with your view of  the market.     We are a mildly overbought medium term, and my short term indicators are overbought so could expect a short term correction to happen.    Medium term strength (TREND) has been very strong which makes it hard to predict when a short term pull back would happen. 



#4 blustar

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Posted 04 January 2024 - 07:02 PM

I play medium term trades since I have a day job, but I agree with your view of  the market.     We are a mildly overbought medium term, and my short term indicators are overbought so could expect a short term correction to happen.    Medium term strength (TREND) has been very strong which makes it hard to predict when a short term pull back would happen. 

Should be one more impulse higher into mid Jan


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blu

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#5 blustar

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Posted 05 January 2024 - 10:39 AM

The problem I see, is that the NYSE, XMI and DJI do not look complete on the downside!

 

We may see selling into next week (2 to 3 more TD's?) before we get a low of importance. The Dow Transports look weak, too.

 

Today may be a 4+1 TD top on the QQQ/SPX and an 8 TD high on the Transports. A low the day before the new moon (Jan 10) would suggest a nice 49/50 TD low (10 week) and then a strong 5 TD rally into Jan 18 to complete the top.


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blu

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