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TLT T-Theory


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#1 Rogerdodger

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Posted 02 January 2024 - 11:10 AM

For what it's worth: TLT is in a T possibly ending late January

(Note: The Fed will announce decisions on interest rates following its two-day meetings ending January 31)

 

"Coincidentally, that is around the time that the Price and the Advance/Decline T end on the SPX."

 

These T’s will be instrumental in deciding when to move funds into longer dates Treasuries, or their equivalent ETFs, and out of the shorter term Treasuries.

.

.https://ttheorygroup...e-of-character/

 

(As I remember, Terry Laundry primarily used his method to trade the "Best Bond".)


Edited by Rogerdodger, 02 January 2024 - 07:58 PM.


#2 Rogerdodger

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Posted 03 January 2024 - 02:13 PM

T Theory???

 

We are in a T on TLT, but there are two distinct possible endings for it. We have the potential for a T lasting until May 6, but more realistically, my POV is that this T will end January 22. Coincidentally, that is around the time that the Price and the Advance/Decline T end on the SPX.

 

Note that since July,  the SPX (Orange) and TLT (RED) have moved in lockstep.

(Both overextended and correcting now. $FVX also correcting.)

 

If the "T" on TLT runs until the near end of January and SPX has a similar T ending around then...

And the FED's next decision is around then...

January 30-31, 2024 (Tuesday-Wednesday)

 

See https://ttheorygroup...e-of-character/

 

 

risk.jpg


Edited by Rogerdodger, 03 January 2024 - 03:05 PM.


#3 Rogerdodger

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Posted 04 January 2024 - 11:01 AM

HSBC strategists say, sentiment and positioning is now very stretched. Some examples include the strong rise in equity long positions from the trend-following CTAs, as well as close to record high net longs in U.S. equity futures of asset managers.

“The combination of continued strong activity and further positive activity surprises coupled with potential upside risks to inflation (particularly vs the dovish rates pricing and consensus expectations) lends further weight to our concern about yet another ‘reverse Goldilocks’ episode hitting us in the coming weeks,” they say.



#4 Rogerdodger

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Posted 06 January 2024 - 03:49 PM

Markets are currently pricing in a 68% chance of the first rate cut at the March monetary policy meeting.

However, some economists have said that after December’s employment numbers, it is unlikely that the U.S. central bank will be ready to cut rates that early in the new year. The latest employment data shows 216,000 jobs were created last month and wages grew by 0.4%.

“The jobs report lends credence to the view that the Fed is likely to continue pushing back against the early rate cuts being priced in by the market until the signal becomes clearer,”